Dataset Information

Development of a Medicare Claims-Based Model to Predict Persistent High-Dose Opioid Use After Total Knee Replacement.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To develop a claims-based model to predict persistent high-dose opioid use among patients undergoing total knee replacement (TKR).

Methods

Using Medicare claims (2010-2014), we identified patients ages ≥65 years who underwent TKR with no history of high-dose opioid use (mean >25 morphine milligram equivalents [MMEs]/day) in the year prior to TKR. We used group-based trajectory modeling to identify distinct opioid use patterns. The primary outcome was persistent high-dose opioid use in the year after TKR. We split the data into training (2010-2013) and test (2014) sets and used logistic regression with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regularization, utilizing a total of 83 preoperative patient characteristics as candidate predictors. A reduced model with 10 prespecified variables, which included demographic characteristics, opioid use, and medication history was also considered.

Results

The final study cohort included 142,089 patients who underwent TKR. The group-based trajectory model identified 4 distinct trajectories of opioid use (group 1: short-term, low-dose; group 2: moderate-duration, low-dose; group 3: moderate-duration, high-dose; and group 4: persistent high-dose). The model predicting persistent high-dose opioid use achieved high discrimination (receiver operating characteristic area under the curve [AUC] 0.85 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.84-0.86]) in the test set. The reduced model with 10 predictors performed equally well (AUC 0.84 [95% CI 0.84-0.85]).

Conclusion

In this cohort of older patients, 10.6% became persistent high-dose (mean 22.4 MME/day) opioid users after TKR. Our model with 10 readily available clinical factors may help identify patients at high risk of future adverse outcomes from persistent opioid use after TKR.

SUBMITTER: Gopalakrishnan C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8280246 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Development of a Medicare Claims-Based Model to Predict Persistent High-Dose Opioid Use After Total Knee Replacement.

Gopalakrishnan Chandrasekar C Desai Rishi J RJ Franklin Jessica M JM Jin Yinzhu Y Lii Joyce J Solomon Daniel H DH Katz Jeffrey N JN Lee Yvonne C YC Franklin Patricia D PD Kim Seoyoung C SC

Arthritis care & research 20220422 8

<h4>Objective</h4>To develop a claims-based model to predict persistent high-dose opioid use among patients undergoing total knee replacement (TKR).<h4>Methods</h4>Using Medicare claims (2010-2014), we identified patients ages ≥65 years who underwent TKR with no history of high-dose opioid use (mean >25 morphine milligram equivalents [MMEs]/day) in the year prior to TKR. We used group-based trajectory modeling to identify distinct opioid use patterns. The primary outcome was persistent high-dose ...[more]

PMID: 33450136

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Project description:ImportanceMany individuals who undergo total knee replacement (TKR) become long-term opioid users after TKR. Associations of physical therapy (PT) interventions before or after TKR with long-term use of opioids are not known.ObjectivesTo evaluate associations of PT interventions before and after TKR with long-term opioid use after TKR.Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study used data from the OptumLabs Data Warehouse on 67 322 individuals aged 40 years or older who underwent TKR from January 1, 2001, to December 31, 2016, stratified by history of opioid use. The analyses for the study included data from January 1, 1999, to December 31, 2018.ExposuresAny PT interventions within 90 days before or after TKR, post-TKR PT dose as number of sessions (ie, 1-5, 6-12, and ≥13 sessions), post-TKR PT timing as number of days to initiation of care (ie, <30 days, 31-60 days, or 61-90 days after TKR), and post-TKR PT type (ie, active vs passive).Main outcomes and measuresThe association of pre- and post-TKR PT with risk of long-term opioid use occurring more than 90 days after TKR was assessed using logistic regression while adjusting for confounders, including age, sex, race and ethnicity (Asian, Black, Hispanic, or White), obesity, type of insurance, geographical location, and physical and mental health comorbidities.ResultsA total of 38 408 opioid-naive individuals (21 336 women [55.6%]; mean [SD] age, 66.2 [9.2] years) and 28 914 opioid-experienced individuals (18 426 women [63.7%]; mean [SD] age, 64.4 [9.3] years) were included. Receipt of any PT before TKR was associated with lower odds of long-term opioid use in the opioid-naive (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.75 [95% CI, 0.60-0.95]) and opioid-experienced (aOR, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.70-0.80]) cohorts. Receipt of any post-TKR PT was associated with lower odds of long-term use of opioids in the opioid-experienced cohort (aOR, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.70-0.79]). Compared with 1 to 5 sessions of PT after TKR, 6 to 12 sessions (aOR, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.75-0.90]) and 13 or more sessions (aOR, 0.71 [95% CI, 0.65-0.77) were associated with lower odds in the opioid-experienced cohort. Compared with initiation of PT within 30 days after TKR, initiation 31 to 60 days or 61 to 90 days after TKR were associated with greater odds in the opioid-naive (31-60 days: aOR, 1.45 [95% CI, 1.19-1.77]; 61-90 days: aOR, 2.15 [95% CI, 1.43-3.22]) and opioid-experienced (31-60 days: aOR, 1.10 [95% CI, 1.02-1.18]; 61-90 days: aOR, 1.32 [95% CI, 1.12-1.55]) cohorts. Compared with passive PT, active PT was not associated with long-term opioid use in the opioid-naive (aOR, 1.00 [95% CI, 0.81-1.24]) or opioid-experienced (aOR, 0.99 [95% CI, 0.92-1.07]) cohorts.Conclusions and relevanceThis cohort study suggests that receipt of PT intervention before and after TKR, receipt of 6 or more sessions of PT care after TKR, and initiation of PT care within 30 days after TKR were associated with lower odds of long-term opioid use. These findings suggest that PT may help reduce the risk of long-term opioid use after TKR.

Project description:DisclaimerIn an effort to expedite the publication of articles related to the COVID-19 pandemic, AJHP is posting these manuscripts online as soon as possible after acceptance. Accepted manuscripts have been peer-reviewed and copyedited, but are posted online before technical formatting and author proofing. These manuscripts are not the final version of record and will be replaced with the final article (formatted per AJHP style and proofed by the authors) at a later time.PurposeTo identify the proportion of patients with continued opioid use after total hip or knee arthroplasty.MethodsThis systematic review and meta-analysis searched Embase, MEDLINE, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and International Pharmaceutical Abstracts for articles published from January 1, 2009, to May 26, 2021. The search terms (opioid, postoperative, hospital discharge, total hip or knee arthroplasty, and treatment duration) were based on 5 key concepts. We included studies of adults who underwent total hip or knee arthroplasty, with at least 3 months postoperative follow-up.ResultsThere were 30 studies included. Of these, 17 reported on outcomes of total hip arthroplasty and 19 reported on outcomes of total knee arthroplasty, with some reporting on outcomes of both procedures. In patients having total hip arthroplasty, rates of postoperative opioid use at various time points were as follows: at 3 months, 20% (95% CI, 13%-26%); at 6 months, 17% (95% CI, 12%-21%); at 9 months, 19% (95% CI, 13%-24%); and at 12 months, 16% (95% CI, 15%-16%). In patients who underwent total knee arthroplasty, rates of postoperative opioid use were as follows: at 3 months, 26% (95% CI, 19%-33%); at 6 months, 20% (95% CI, 17%-24%); at 9 months, 23% (95% CI, 17%-28%); and at 12 months, 21% (95% CI, 12%-29%). Opioid naïve patients were less likely to have continued postoperative opioid use than those who were opioid tolerant preoperatively.ConclusionOver 1 in 5 patients continued opioid use for longer than 3 months after total hip or knee arthroplasty. Clinicians should be aware of this trajectory of opioid consumption after surgery.

Project description:ImportancePrescription opioid use is common among patients with moderate to severe knee osteoarthritis before undergoing total knee replacement (TKR). Preoperative opioid use may be associated with worse clinical and safety outcomes after TKR.ObjectiveTo determine the association of preoperative opioid use among patients 65 years and older with mortality and other complications at 30 days post-TKR.Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study used claims data from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2014, from a random sample of US Medicare enrollees 65 years and older who underwent TKR. Based on opioid dispensing in 360 days prior to TKR, patients were classified as continuous (≥1 opioid dispensing in each of the past 12 months) or intermittent (any dispensing of opioids in the past 12 months but not continuous use) opioid users or as opioid-naive patients (no opioids dispensed in the past 12 months). Data analyses were conducted from October 3, 2017, to November 8, 2018.Main outcomes and measuresPrimary outcomes included in-hospital mortality and 30-day post-TKR mortality, hospital readmission, and revision operation. Secondary safety outcomes at 30 days post-TKR included opioid overdose and vertebral and nonvertebral fracture. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs.ResultsOf 316 593 patients (mean [SD] age, 73.9 [5.8] years; 214 677 [67.8%] women) who underwent TKR, 22 895 (7.2%) were continuous opioid users, 161 511 (51.0%) were intermittent opioid users, and 132 187 (41.7%) were opioid naive. In-hospital mortality occurred in 276 patients (0.09%). At 30 days post-TKR, 828 patients (0.26%) died, 16 786 patients (5.30%) had hospital readmission, and 921 patients (0.29%) had a revision operation. All primary and secondary outcomes occurred more frequently among continuous opioid users compared with opioid-naive patients. Compared with opioid-naive patients and after adjusting for demographic characteristics, combined comorbidity score, number of different prescription medications, and frailty, continuous opioid users had greater risk of revision operations (HR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.15-2.32), vertebral fractures (HR, 2.37; 95% CI, 1.37-4.09), and opioid overdose (HR, 4.82; 95% CI, 1.36-17.07) at 30 days post-TKR. However, after adjusting covariates, there were no statistically significant differences in in-hospital (HR, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.73-1.90) or 30-day (HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.73-1.51) mortality between continuous opioid users and opioid-naive patients.Conclusions and relevanceAfter adjusting for baseline risk profiles, including comorbidities and frailty, continuous opioid users had a higher risk of revision operations, vertebral fractures, and opioid overdose at 30 days post-TKR but not of in-hospital or 30-day mortality, compared with opioid-naive patients. These results highlight the need for better understanding of patient characteristics associated with chronic opioid use to optimize preoperative assessment of overall risk after TKR.

Dataset Information

Development of a Medicare Claims-Based Model to Predict Persistent High-Dose Opioid Use After Total Knee Replacement.

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Development of a Medicare Claims-Based Model to Predict Persistent High-Dose Opioid Use After Total Knee Replacement.

Similar Datasets

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