Lifetime risk of developing diabetes and years of life lost among those with diabetes in Brazil.
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ABSTRACT: Background
Given the paucity of studies for low- or middle-income countries, we aim to provide the first ever estimations of lifetime risk of diabetes, years of life spent and lost among those with diabetes for Brazilians. Estimates of Brazil´s diabetes burden consist essentially of reports of diabetes prevalence from national surveys and mortality data. However, these additional metrics are at times more meaningful ways to characterize this burden.Methods
We joined data on incidence of physician-diagnosed diabetes from the Brazilian risk factor surveillance system, all-cause mortality from national statistics, and diabetes mortality rate ratios from ELSA-Brasil, an ongoing cohort study. To calculate lifetime risk of developing diabetes, we applied an illness-death state model. To calculate years of life lost for those with diabetes and years lived with the disease, we additionally calculated the mortality rates for those with diabetes.Results
A 35-year-old white adult had a 23.4% (95% CI = 22.5%-25.5%) lifetime risk of developing diabetes by age 80 while a same-aged black/brown adult had a 30.8% risk (95% confidence interval (CI) = 29.6%-33.2%). Men diagnosed with diabetes at age 35 would live 32.9 (95% CI = 32.4-33.2) years with diabetes and lose 5.5 (95% CI = 5.1-6.1) years of life. Similarly-aged women would live 38.8 (95% CI = 38.3-38.9) years with diabetes and lose 2.1 (95% CI = 1.9-2.6) years of life.Conclusions
Assuming maintenance of current rates, one-quarter of young Brazilians will develop diabetes over their lifetimes, with this number reaching almost one-third among young, black/brown women. Those developing diabetes will suffer a decrease in life expectancy and will generate a considerable cost in terms of medical care.
SUBMITTER: Bracco PA
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8284547 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundBoth incidence and mortality of diagnosed diabetes have decreased over the past decade. However, the impact of these changes on key metrics of diabetes burden-lifetime risk (LR), years of potential life lost (YPLL), and years spent with diabetes-is unknown.MethodsWe used data from 653,811 adults aged ≥18 years from the National Health Interview Survey, a cross-sectional sample of the civilian non-institutionalized population in the United States. LR, YPLL, and years spent with diabetes were estimated from age 18 to 84 by survey period (1997-1999, 2000-2004, 2005-2009, 2010-2014, 2015-2018). The age-specific incidence of diagnosed diabetes and mortality were estimated using Poisson regression. A multistate difference equation accounting for competing risks was used to model each metric.ResultsLR and years spent with diabetes initially increased then decreased over the most recent time periods. LR for adults at age 20 increased from 31.7% (95% CI: 31.2-32.1%) in 1997-1999 to 40.7% (40.2-41.1%) in 2005-2009, then decreased to 32.8% (32.4-33.2%) in 2015-2018. Both LR and years spent with diabetes were markedly higher among adults of non-Hispanic Black, Hispanic, and other races compared to non-Hispanic Whites. YPLL significantly decreased over the study period, with the estimated YPLL due to diabetes for an adult aged 20 decreasing from 8.9 (8.7-9.1) in 1997-1999 to 6.2 (6.1-6.4) in 2015-2018 (p = 0.02).ConclusionIn the United States, diabetes burden is declining, but disparities by race/ethnicity remain. LR remains high with approximately one-third of adults estimated to develop diabetes during their lifetime.
| S-EPMC9129010 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Besides lifetime risks, we estimated life expectancy (LE), expected years of life lost (EYLL), lifetime costs, and cost-per-LY (life-year) stratified by different stages of esophageal cancer (EC). From the Taiwan Cancer Registry, we collected 14,420 EC to estimate the incidence rates during 2008-2014. They were followed to 2015 to obtain the survival function, which was extrapolated to lifetime by a semiparametric method. We abstracted the monthly healthcare expenditures from the reimbursement database of National Health Insurance, which were multiplied with the corresponding survival probabilities to quantify lifetime cost and cost-per-LY after adjustments. About 93.7% of patients were male; 90.8% had squamous cell carcinoma. Most patients were diagnosed at advanced stages, with 44.6% and 28.3% at stages III and IV. The lifetime risk of EC in males increased in Taiwan with a cumulative incidence rate (CIR30-84) of 0.0146% (2008~2010) to 0.0165% (2013-2014). The EYLL for stages I-IV were 15.8, 17.5, 20.5, and 22.5, while the average of cost-per-LY for stages I-IV were US$ 6,987, $8,776, $12,153, and $22,426. EC in Taiwan appears to have shifted into younger ages groups and incidence is still increasing. Strategies for prevention, early diagnosis and treatment are warranted to improve the cost-effectiveness and control of this cancer.
| S-EPMC7048720 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVE:To quantify the impact of diabetes status on healthy and disabled years of life for older adults in the U.S. and provide a baseline from which to evaluate ongoing national public health efforts to prevent and control diabetes and disability. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS:Adults (n = 20,008) aged 50 years and older were followed from 1998 to 2012 in the Health and Retirement Study, a prospective biannual survey of a nationally representative sample of adults. Diabetes and disability status (defined by mobility loss, difficulty with instrumental activities of daily living [IADL], and/or difficulty with activities of daily living [ADL]) were self-reported. We estimated incidence of disability, remission to nondisability, and mortality. We developed a discrete-time Markov simulation model with a 1-year transition cycle to predict and compare lifetime disability-related outcomes between people with and without diabetes. Data represent the U.S. population in 1998. RESULTS:From age 50 years, adults with diabetes died 4.6 years earlier, developed disability 6-7 years earlier, and spent about 1-2 more years in a disabled state than adults without diabetes. With increasing baseline age, diabetes was associated with significant (P < 0.05) reductions in the number of total and disability-free life-years, but the absolute difference in years between those with and without diabetes was less than at younger baseline age. Men with diabetes spent about twice as many of their remaining years disabled (20-24% of remaining life across the three disability definitions) as men without diabetes (12-16% of remaining life across the three disability definitions). Similar associations between diabetes status and disability-free and disabled years were observed among women. CONCLUSIONS:Diabetes is associated with a substantial reduction in nondisabled years, to a greater extent than the reduction of longevity.
| S-EPMC5884095 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVE:To estimate the years of life lost by the Brazilian population due to mouth and pharynx cancer from 1979 to 2013, and analyze the temporal trends in the studied period, according to the country's region, sex and anatomical site. METHODS:The death records were obtained from the Mortality Information System and the data referring to the population, from the censuses of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics of 1980, 1991, 2000, 2010, and from intercensal estimates for the other years. The rates of potential years of life lost were calculated by applying the method suggested by Romeder and McWhinnie, and their trends were calculated using the Prais-Winsten method with first-order autocorrelation. The historical series were smoothed with the centered moving average technique of third order for white noise reduction. RESULTS:In the period from 1979 to 2013 in Brazil, there were a total of 107,506 premature deaths due to mouth and pharynx cancer, which generated a total of 1,589,501 potential years of life lost, the equivalent to a rate of 3.6 per 10,000 inhabitants. Males, whose rate was six times higher than for females, contributed with 85% of the years lost. The trends in the rates of years of life lost showed an annual 0.72% increase for men, 1.13% for women and 1.05% for pharynx cancer. CONCLUSIONS:The rate of potential years of life lost due to mouth and pharynx cancer in the country showed an upward trend within the studied period for both sexes, as well as for pharynx cancer and for the North, Northeast and Midwest regions.
| S-EPMC6707621 | biostudies-literature
Project description:To estimate the potential years of life lost by road traffic injuries three years after the beginning of the Decade of Action for Traffic Safety.We analyzed the data of the Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade (SIM - Mortality Information System) related to road traffic injuries, in 2013. We estimated the crude and standardized mortality rates for Brazil and geographic regions. We calculated, for the Country, the proportional mortality according to age groups, education level, race/skin color, and type or quality of the victim while user of the public highway. We estimated the potential years of life lost according to sex.The mortality rate in 2013 was of 21.0 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants for the Country. The Midwest region presented the highest rate (29.9 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants). Most of the deaths by road traffic injuries took place with males (34.9 deaths per 100,000 males). More than half of the people who have died because of road traffic injuries were of black race/skin color, young adults (24.2%), individuals with low schooling (24.0%), and motorcyclists (28.5%). The mortality rate in the triennium 2011-2013 decreased 4.1%, but increased among motorcyclists. Across the Country, more than a million of potential years of life were lost, in 2013, because of road traffic injuries, especially in the age group of 20 to 29 years.The impact of the high mortality rate is of over a million of potential years of life lost by road traffic injuries, especially among adults in productive age (early mortality), in only one year, representing extreme social cost arising from a cause of death that could be prevented. Despite the reduction of mortality by road traffic injuries from 2011 to 2013, the mortality rates increased among motorcyclists.Estimar os anos potenciais de vida perdidos por acidente de transporte terrestre após três anos do início da Década de Ação pela Segurança no Trânsito.Foram analisados os dados do Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade correspondentes aos acidentes de transporte terrestre, em 2013. Foram calculadas as taxas de mortalidade bruta e padronizada para o Brasil e regiões geográficas. Foi calculada, para o País, a mortalidade proporcional segundo faixas etárias, escolaridade, raça/cor da pele e tipo ou qualidade da vítima enquanto usuária da via pública. Foram estimados os anos potenciais de vida perdidos segundo sexo.A taxa de mortalidade, em 2013, foi de 21,0 óbitos por 100 mil habitantes para o País. A região Centro-Oeste apresentou a taxa mais elevada (29,9 óbitos por 100 mil habitantes). A maioria dos óbitos por acidentes de transporte terrestre foi observada no sexo masculino (34,9 óbitos por 100 mil homens). Mais da metade das pessoas que faleceram em decorrência de acidentes de transporte terrestre eram da raça/cor da pele negra, adultos jovens (24,2%), indivíduos com baixa escolaridade (24,0%) e motociclistas (28,5%). A taxa de mortalidade, no triênio 2011 a 2013, apresentou redução de 4,1%, mas aumentou entre os motociclistas. Em todo o País, mais de um milhão de anos potenciais de vida foram perdidos, em 2013, devido aos acidentes de transporte terrestre, especialmente na faixa etária de 20 a 29 anos.O impacto da alta taxa de mortalidade é de mais de um milhão de anos potenciais de vida perdidos por acidentes de transporte terrestre, principalmente entre adultos em idade produtiva (mortalidade precoce), em apenas um ano, representando extremo custo social decorrente de uma causa de óbito que poderia ser prevenida. Apesar da redução da mortalidade por acidentes de transporte terrestre de 2011 a 2013, as taxas de mortalidade aumentaram entre os motociclistas.
| S-EPMC5068963 | biostudies-literature
Project description:OBJECTIVE:To assess the years of life lost due to premature death and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) as a result of chronic noncommunicable diseases attributable to occupational hazard factors, and to compare their position according to the risk ranking for chronic noncommunicable diseases in 1990 and 2016. METHODS:Data for the DALY indicator, estimated from the Global Burden of Disease 2016 (GBD 2016) study, were analyzed for noncommunicable chronic diseases attributable to occupational, and other risk factors, selected in Brazil. A descriptive analysis was performed comparing the proportion of DALY by sex and age group (15 to 49 and 50 to 69 years old), as well as the ranking of occupational hazard factors in 1990 and 2016. RESULTS:In 2016, ergonomic risk factors, carcinogenic agents, and noise in the workplace were among the 25 largest contributors to DALY for chronic noncommunicable diseases affecting the age group between 15 and 49 years. The contribution of all occupational hazard factors increased in 2016, except for occupational aerodispersoids affecting men. Concerning the age group between 50 and 69, occupational carcinogens stand out, with an increase of 26.0% for men, and 17.1% for women in 2016. Risk factors evaluated according to their 1990 and 2016 ranking show that occupational hazards have all scored higher on the second evaluation (2016), especially when compared with other risks. CONCLUSIONS:The global burden of chronic noncommunicable diseases attributed to occupational hazard factors has become increasingly important. We suggest the strengthening of the approach of occupational hazard factors in the agendas for tackling these diseases in Brazil.
| S-EPMC7069713 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundType 2 diabetes (T2D) causes substantial disease burden and is projected to affect an increasing number of people in coming decades. This study provides projected estimates of life years free of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and years of life lost ([Formula: see text]) associated with T2D for Germany in the years 2015 and 2040.MethodsBased on an illness-death model and the associated mathematical relation between prevalence, incidence and mortality, we projected the prevalence of diagnosed T2D using currently available data on the incidence rate of diagnosed T2D and mortality rates of people with and without diagnosed T2D. Projection of prevalence was achieved by integration of a partial differential equation, which governs the illness-death model. These projected parameters were used as input values to calculate life years free of T2D and [Formula: see text] associated with T2D for the German population aged 40 to 100 years in the years 2015 and 2040, while accounting for different assumptions on future trends in T2D incidence and mortality.ResultsAssuming a constant incidence rate, women and men at age 40 years in 2015 will live approximately 38 years and 33 years free of T2D, respectively. Up to the year 2040, these numbers are projected to increase by 1.0 years and 1.3 years. Assuming a decrease in T2D-associated excess mortality of 2% per year, women and men aged 40 years with T2D in 2015 will be expected to lose 1.6 and 2.7 years of life, respectively, compared to a same aged person without T2D. In 2040, these numbers would reduce by approximately 0.9 years and 1.6 years. This translates to 10.8 million and 6.4 million [Formula: see text] in the German population aged 40-100 years with prevalent T2D in 2015 and 2040, respectively.ConclusionsGiven expected trends in mortality and no increase in T2D incidence, the burden due to premature mortality associated with T2D will decrease on the individual as well as on the population level. In addition, the expected lifetime without T2D is likely to increase. However, these trends strongly depend on future improvements of excess mortality associated with T2D and future incidence of T2D, which should motivate increased efforts of primary and tertiary prevention.
| S-EPMC8507142 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Aims/hypothesisType 2 diabetes can lead to reduced productivity during working age. We aimed to estimate productive life years lost associated with type 2 diabetes on the individual and population level in Germany in 2020 and 2040, while accounting for future trends in mortality.MethodsBased on a mathematical projection model, we estimated age- and sex-specific productivity losses associated with type 2 diabetes during working age (20-69 years) in Germany in 2020 and 2040. Productivity losses in terms of excess mortality (years of life lost, YLL) and reductions in labour force participation, presenteeism and absenteeism (years of productivity lost, YPL) were summed to calculate productivity-adjusted life years (PALY) lost. Input data for the projection were based on meta-analyses, representative population-based studies and population projections to account for future trends in mortality.ResultsCompared with a person without type 2 diabetes, mean PALY lost per person with type 2 diabetes in 2020 was 2.6 years (95% CI 2.3, 3.0). Of these 2.6 years, 0.4 (95% CI 0.3, 0.4) years were lost due to YLL and 2.3 (95% CI 1.9, 2.6) years were lost due to YPL. Age- and sex-specific results show that younger age groups and women are expected to lose more productive life years than older age groups and men. Population-wide estimates suggest that 4.60 (95% CI 4.58, 4.63) million people with prevalent type 2 diabetes in 2020 are expected to lose 12.06 (95% CI 10.42, 13.76) million PALY (1.62 million years due to YLL and 10.44 million years due to YPL). In 2040, individual-level PALY lost are projected to slightly decrease due to reductions in YLL. In contrast, population-wide PALY lost are projected to increase to 15.39 (95% CI 13.19, 17.64) million due to an increase in the number of people with type 2 diabetes to 5.45 (95% CI 5.41, 5.50) million.Conclusions/interpretationOn the population level, a substantial increase in productivity burden associated with type 2 diabetes was projected for Germany between 2020 and 2040. Efforts to reduce the incidence rate of type 2 diabetes and diabetes-related complications may attenuate this increase.
| S-EPMC8099797 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Typically, lifetime risk is calculated by the period method using current risks at different ages. Here, we estimate the probability of being diagnosed with cancer for individuals born in a given year, by estimating future risks as the cohort ages.We estimated the lifetime risk of cancer in Britain separately for men and women born in each year from 1930 to 1960. We projected rates of all cancers (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) and of all cancer deaths forwards using a flexible age-period-cohort model and backwards using age-specific extrapolation. The sensitivity of the estimated lifetime risk to the method of projection was explored.The lifetime risk of cancer increased from 38.5% for men born in 1930 to 53.5% for men born in 1960. For women it increased from 36.7 to 47.5%. Results are robust to different models for projections of cancer rates.The lifetime risk of cancer for people born since 1960 is >50%. Over half of people who are currently adults under the age of 65 years will be diagnosed with cancer at some point in their lifetime.
| S-EPMC4453943 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundLittle is known about the lifetime risk of progression to diabetes in the Asian population. We determined remaining lifetime risk of diabetes and life years spent with diabetes in Chinese people with normoglycemia and prediabetes.Methods and findingsUsing territory-wide diabetes surveillance data curated from electronic medical records of Hong Kong Hospital Authority (HA), we conducted a population-based cohort study in 2,608,973 individuals followed from 2001 to 2019. Prediabetes and diabetes were identified based on laboratory measurements, diagnostic codes, and medication records. Remaining lifetime risk and life years spent with diabetes were estimated using Monte Carlo simulations with state transition probabilities based on a Markov chain model. Validations were performed using several sensitivity analyses and modified survival analysis. External replication was performed using the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey (CHARLS) cohort (2010 to 2015). The expected remaining lifetime risk of developing diabetes was 88.0 (95% confidence intervals: 87.2, 88.7)% for people with prediabetes and 65.9 (65.8, 65.9)% for people with normoglycemia at age 20 years. A 20-year-old person with prediabetes would live with diabetes for 32.5 (32.0, 33.1) years or 51.6 (50.8, 52.3)% of remaining life years, whereas a person with normoglycemia at 20 years would live 12.7 (12.7, 12.7) years with diabetes or 18.4 (18.4, 18.5)% of remaining life years. Women had a higher expected remaining lifetime risk and longer life years with diabetes compared to men. Results are subjected to possible selection bias as only people who undertook routine or opportunistic screening were included.ConclusionsThese findings suggest that Hong Kong, an economically developed city in Asia, is confronted with huge challenge of high lifetime risk of diabetes and long life years spent with diabetes, especially in people with prediabetes. Effective public health policies and targeted interventions for preventing progression to diabetes are urgently needed.
| S-EPMC9302798 | biostudies-literature