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Bronchopulmonary dysplasia: a predictive scoring system for very low birth weight infants. A diagnostic accuracy study with prospective data collection.

ABSTRACT: Our aim was to develop and validate a predictive risk score for bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD), according to two clinically used definitions: 1. Need for supplementary oxygen during ≥ 28 cumulative days, BPD28, 2. Need for supplementary oxygen at 36 weeks postmenstrual age (PMA), BPD36. Logistic regression was performed in a national cohort (infants born in Switzerland with a birth weight < 1501 g and/or between 23 0/7 and 31 6/7 weeks PMA in 2009 and 2010), to identify predictors of BPD. We built the score as the sum of predicting factors, weighted according to their ORs, and analysed its discriminative properties by calculating the area under the ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curves (AUCs). This score was then applied to the Swiss national cohort from the years 2014-2015 to perform external validation. The incidence of BPD28 was 21.6% in the derivation cohort (n = 1488) and 25.2% in the validation cohort (n = 2006). The corresponding numbers for BPD36 were 11.3% and 11.1%, respectively. We identified gestational age, birth weight, antenatal corticosteroids, surfactant administration, proven infection, patent ductus arteriosus and duration of mechanical ventilation as independent predictors of BPD28. The AUCs of the BPD risk scores in the derivation cohort were 0.90 and 0.89 for the BPD28 and BPD36 definitions, respectively. The corresponding AUCs in the validation cohort were 0.92 and 0.88, respectively.Conclusion: This score allows for predicting the risk of a very low birth weight infant to develop BPD early in life and may be a useful tool in clinical practice and neonatal research. What is Known: • Many studies have proposed scoring systems to predict bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD). • Such a risk prediction may be important to identify high-risk patients for counselling parents, research purposes and to identify candidates for specific treatment. What is New: • A predictive risk score for BPD was developed and validated in a large national multicentre cohort and its performance assessed by two indices of accuracy. • The developed scoring system allows to predict the risk of BPD development early but also at any day of life with high validity.

SUBMITTER: El Faleh I

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8285318 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ObjectiveThis study aimed to determine the influence of fluid overload on bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) in very low-birth-weight infants (VLBWI) within 1 week after birth.MethodsThis was a retrospective case control study conducted in the Jingzhou Central Hospital. The clinical data of VLBWI (with a birth weight [BW] < 1,500 g and 26 weeks ≤ gestational age [GA] < 32 weeks) who were admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit of this hospital from January 2016 to December 2021 were analyzed retrospectively. A total of 157 cases were enrolled and divided into a BPD group (n = 60) and a non-BPD group (n = 97) according to whether BPD was present. The general condition, fluid intake, and fluid overload of the two groups of neonates within 1 week after birth were compared. The logistic regression was used to assess the association between infant characteristics and BPD. The ROC curve was used to assess how well the 7 day cumulative fluid overload predicted BPD, and to identify an optimal cut off for prediction.ResultsThe comparison of the patients' general condition revealed that the neonates in the BPD group had a younger GA, lower BW, lower 5-min Apgar score, longer duration of invasive mechanical ventilation, and higher incidence of intrauterine infections and administration of surfactants (P < 0.05). The differences in the other indicators were not statistically significant between the two groups. The logistic regression analysis revealed that a younger GA, the presence of intrauterine infection, and a 7-day cumulative fluid overload were the risk factors for the development of BPD. A ROC curve was plotted with the 7-day cumulative fluid overload as the test variable and BPD as the status variable. The area under the curve was 0.75 (95% confidence interval: 0.664-0.826, P = 0.042), with a sensitivity of 76.7% and a specificity of 70.1%, corresponding to a 7-day cumulative fluid overload of 36.2%.ConclusionA younger GA, the presence of intrauterine infection, and a 7-day cumulative fluid overload were risk factors for the development of BPD. A 7 day cumulative fluid overload threshold of 36.2% best predicted the development of BPD.

Project description:Background and aimHuman milk has potential protective effects against bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD). However, studies on the association between the dose of human milk and BPD in China are limited. This study aimed to evaluate the dose-dependent effects of human milk on BPD and other neonatal morbidities in very low birth weight (VLBW) infants.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study of preterm infants was conducted on preterm infants of gestational age ≤ 34 weeks and birth weight < 1500 g admitted to the multicenter clinical research database for breastfeeding quality improvement in Jiangsu province. The multivariate analysis was performed to compare the effect outcomes of daily graded doses [1-24 mL/(kg · day), 25-49 mL/(kg · day), and ≥ 50 mL/(kg · day) of body weight] of human milk on neonatal outcomes throughout the first 4 weeks of life versus a reference group receiving no human milk. The models were adjusted for potential confounding variables.ResultsOf 964 included infants, 279 (28.9%) received exclusive preterm formula, 128 (13.3%) received 1-24 ml/(kg · day), 139 (14.4%) received 25-49 ml/(kg · day), and 418 (43.4%) received ≥50 ml/(kg · day) human milk for the first 4 weeks of life. Compared with infants receiving exclusive formula, those receiving the highest volume of human milk daily [≥50 mL/(kg · day)] had lower incidences of BPD [27.5% in ≥50 mL/(kg · day) vs 40.1% in 0 mL/(kg · day) human milk, P = 0.001)], moderate and severe BPD [8.9% in ≥50 mL/(kg · day) vs 16.1% in 0 mL/(kg · day), P = 0.004], necrotizing enterocolitis [NEC; 3.8% in ≥50 mL/(kg · day) vs 10.8% in 0 mL/(kg · day), P = 0.001], late-onset sepsis [LOS; 9.3% in ≥50 mL/(kg · day) vs 19.7% in 0 mL/(kg · day), P <0.01], and extrauterine growth retardation [EUGR; 38.5% in ≥50 mL/(kg · day) vs 57.6% in 0 mL/(kg · day), P <0.01)]. The logistic regression indicated that those receiving ≥50 ml/kg · day human milk had lower odds of BPD [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 0.453; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.309, 0.666], moderate and severe BPD (AOR 0.430; 95% CI: 0.249, 0.742), NEC (AOR 0.314; 95% CI: 0.162, 0. 607), LOS (AOR 0.420; 95% CI: 0.263, 0.673), and EUGR (AOR 0.685; 95% CI: 0.479, 0.979).ConclusionsA daily threshold amount of ≥50 ml/(kg · day) human milk in the first 4 weeks of life was associated with lower incidence of BPD as well as NEC, LOS, and EUGR in VLBW infants.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03453502 . Registration date: March 5, 2018. This study was retrospectively registered.

Project description:IntroductionBronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) poses a substantial global health burden. Individualized treatment strategies based on early prediction of the development of BPD can mitigate preterm birth complications; however, previously suggested predictive models lack early postnatal applicability. We aimed to develop predictive models for BPD and mortality based on immediate postnatal clinical data.MethodsClinical information on very preterm and very low birth weight infants born between 2008 and 2018 was extracted from a nationwide Japanese database. The gradient boosting decision trees (GBDT) algorithm was adopted to predict BPD and mortality, using predictors within the first 6 h postpartum. We assessed the temporal validity and evaluated model adequacy using Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) values.ResultsWe developed three predictive models using data from 39,488, 39,096, and 40,291 infants to predict "death or BPD," "death or severe BPD," and "death before discharge," respectively. These well-calibrated models achieved areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.828 (95% CI: 0.828-0.828), 0.873 (0.873-0.873), and 0.887 (0.887-0.888), respectively, outperforming the multivariable logistic regression models. SHAP value analysis identified predictors of BPD, including gestational age, size at birth, male sex, and persistent pulmonary hypertension. In SHAP value-based case clustering, the "death or BPD" prediction model stratified infants by gestational age and persistent pulmonary hypertension, whereas the other models for "death or severe BPD" and "death before discharge" commonly formed clusters of low mortality, extreme prematurity, low Apgar scores, and persistent pulmonary hypertension of the newborn.ConclusionsGBDT models for predicting BPD and mortality, designed for use within 6 h postpartum, demonstrated superior prognostic performance. SHAP value-based clustering, a data-driven approach, formed clusters of clinical relevance. These findings suggest the efficacy of a GBDT algorithm for the early postnatal prediction of BPD.

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Bronchopulmonary dysplasia: a predictive scoring system for very low birth weight infants. A diagnostic accuracy study with prospective data collection.

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