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Predicting future dynamics from short-term time series using an Anticipated Learning Machine.

ABSTRACT: Predicting time series has significant practical applications over different disciplines. Here, we propose an Anticipated Learning Machine (ALM) to achieve precise future-state predictions based on short-term but high-dimensional data. From non-linear dynamical systems theory, we show that ALM can transform recent correlation/spatial information of high-dimensional variables into future dynamical/temporal information of any target variable, thereby overcoming the small-sample problem and achieving multistep-ahead predictions. Since the training samples generated from high-dimensional data also include information of the unknown future values of the target variable, it is called anticipated learning. Extensive experiments on real-world data demonstrate significantly superior performances of ALM over all of the existing 12 methods. In contrast to traditional statistics-based machine learning, ALM is based on non-linear dynamics, thus opening a new way for dynamics-based machine learning.

SUBMITTER: Chen C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8288952 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting future dynamics from short-term time series using an Anticipated Learning Machine.

Chen Chuan C Li Rui R Shu Lin L He Zhiyu Z Wang Jining J Zhang Chengming C Ma Huanfei H Aihara Kazuyuki K Chen Luonan L

National science review 20200219 6

Predicting time series has significant practical applications over different disciplines. Here, we propose an Anticipated Learning Machine (ALM) to achieve precise future-state predictions based on short-term but high-dimensional data. From non-linear dynamical systems theory, we show that ALM can transform recent correlation/spatial information of high-dimensional variables into future dynamical/temporal information of any target variable, thereby overcoming the small-sample problem and achievi ...[more]

PMID: 34692127

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Project description:BackgroundPredicting antimicrobial resistance (AMR), a top global health threat, nationwide at an aggregate hospital level could help target interventions. Using machine learning, we exploit historical AMR and antimicrobial usage to predict future AMR.MethodsAntimicrobial use and AMR prevalence in bloodstream infections in hospitals in England were obtained per hospital group (Trust) and financial year (FY, April-March) for 22 pathogen-antibiotic combinations (FY2016-2017 to FY2021-2022). Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model predictions were compared to the previous value taken forwards, the difference between the previous two years taken forwards and linear trend forecasting (LTF). XGBoost feature importances were calculated to aid interpretability.ResultsHere we show that XGBoost models achieve the best predictive performance. Relatively limited year-to-year variability in AMR prevalence within Trust-pathogen-antibiotic combinations means previous value taken forwards also achieves a low mean absolute error (MAE), similar to or slightly higher than XGBoost. Using the difference between the previous two years taken forward or LTF performs consistently worse. XGBoost considerably outperforms all other methods in Trusts with a larger change in AMR prevalence from FY2020-2021 (last training year) to FY2021-2022 (held-out test set). Feature importance values indicate that besides historical resistance to the same pathogen-antibiotic combination as the outcome, complex relationships between resistance in different pathogens to the same antibiotic/antibiotic class and usage are exploited for predictions. These are generally among the top ten features ranked according to their mean absolute SHAP values.ConclusionsYear-to-year resistance has generally changed little within Trust-pathogen-antibiotic combinations. In those with larger changes, XGBoost models can improve predictions, enabling informed decisions, efficient resource allocation, and targeted interventions.

Dataset Information

Predicting future dynamics from short-term time series using an Anticipated Learning Machine.

Publications

Predicting future dynamics from short-term time series using an Anticipated Learning Machine.

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