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Population size estimation of seasonal forest-going populations in southern Lao PDR.

ABSTRACT: Forest-going populations are key to malaria transmission in the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) and are therefore targeted for elimination efforts. Estimating the size of this population is essential for programs to assess, track and achieve their elimination goals. Leveraging data from three cross-sectional household surveys and one survey among forest-goers, the size of this high-risk population in a southern province of Lao PDR between December 2017 and November 2018 was estimated by two methods: population-based household surveys and capture-recapture. During the first month of the dry season, the first month of the rainy season, and the last month of the rainy season, respectively, 16.2% [14.7; 17.7], 9.3% [7.2; 11.3], and 5.3% [4.4; 6.1] of the adult population were estimated to have engaged in forest-going activities. The capture-recapture method estimated a total population size of 18,426 [16,529; 20,669] forest-goers, meaning 61.0% [54.2; 67.9] of the adult population had engaged in forest-going activities over the 12-month study period. This study demonstrates two methods for population size estimation to inform malaria research and programming. The seasonality and turnover within this forest-going population provide unique opportunities and challenges for control programs across the GMS as they work towards malaria elimination.

SUBMITTER: Rerolle F

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8292394 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundIn the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS), forest-going populations are considered high-risk populations for malaria and are increasingly targeted by national control programmes' elimination efforts. A better understanding of forest-going populations' mobility patterns and risk associated with specific types of forest-going trips is necessary for countries in the GMS to achieve their objective of eliminating malaria by 2030.MethodsBetween March and November 2018, as part of a focal test and treat intervention (FTAT), 2,904 forest-goers were recruited in southern Lao PDR. A subset of forest-goers carried an "i-Got-U" GPS logger for roughly 2 months, configured to collect GPS coordinates every 15 to 30 min. The utilization distribution (UD) surface around each GPS trajectory was used to extract trips to the forest and forest-fringes. Trips with shared mobility characteristics in terms of duration, timing and forest penetration were identified by a hierarchical clustering algorithm. Then, clusters of trips with increased exposure to dominant malaria vectors in the region were further classified as high-risk. Finally, gradient boosting trees were used to assess which of the forest-goers' socio-demographic and behavioural characteristics best predicted their likelihood to engage in such high-risk trips.ResultsA total of 122 forest-goers accepted carrying a GPS logger resulting in the collection of 803 trips to the forest or forest-fringes. Six clusters of trips emerged, helping to classify 385 (48%) trips with increased exposure to malaria vectors based on high forest penetration and whether the trip happened overnight. Age, outdoor sleeping structures and number of children were the best predictors of forest-goers' probability of engaging in high-risk trips. The probability of engaging in high-risk trips was high (~ 33%) in all strata of the forest-going population.ConclusionThis study characterized the heterogeneity within the mobility patterns of forest-goers and attempted to further segment their role in malaria transmission in southern Lao People's Democratic Republic (PDR). National control programmes across the region can leverage these results to tailor their interventions and messaging to high-risk populations and accelerate malaria elimination.

Project description:BackgroundTargeted malaria elimination (TME) in Lao PDR (Laos) included three rounds of mass drug administrations (MDA) against malaria followed by quarterly blood surveys in two villages in Nong District at Savannakhet Province. The success of MDA largely depends upon the efficacy of the anti-malarial drug regimen, local malaria epidemiology and the population coverage. In order to explore the reasons for participation in TME, a quantitative survey was conducted after the completion of the three rounds of MDA.MethodsThe survey was conducted in two villages with a total of 158 households in July and August 2016. Among the 973 villagers eligible for participation in the MDA, 158 (16.2%) adults (> 18 years) were selected, one each from every household for the interviews using a quantitative questionnaire.Results150/158 (94.9%) respondents participated at least in one activity (taking medicine or testing their blood) of TME. 141/150 (94.0%) respondents took part in the MDA and tested their blood in all three rounds. 17/158 (10.7%) were partial or non-participants in three rounds of MDA. Characteristics of respondents which were independently associated with completion of three rounds of MDA included: attending TME meetings [AOR = 12.0 (95% CI 1.1-20.5) (p = 0.03)], knowing that malaria can be diagnosed through blood tests [AOR = 5.6 (95% CI 1.0-32.3) (p = 0.05)], all members from household participated [AOR = 4.2 (95% CI 1.3-14.0) (p = 0.02)], liking all aspects of TME [AOR = 17.2 (95% CI 1.6-177.9) (p = 0.02)] and the perception that TME was important [AOR = 14.9 (95% CI 1.3-171.2) (p = 0.03)].ConclusionComplete participation in TME was significantly associated with participation in community engagement activities, knowledge that the blood tests were for malaria diagnosis, family members' participation at TME and perceptions that TME was worthwhile. A responsive approach to community engagement that includes formative research and the involvement of community members may increase the uptake of the intervention.

Project description:Plant functional traits reflect different evolutionary responses to environmental variation, and among extant species determine the outcomes of interactions between plants and their environment, including other plant species. Thus, combining phylogenetic and trait-based information can be a powerful approach for understanding community assembly processes across a range of spatial scales. We used this approach to investigate tree community composition at Phou Khao Khouay National Park (18°14'-18°32'N; 102°38'- 102°59'E), Laos, where several distinct forest types occur in close proximity. The aim of our study was to examine patterns of plant community assembly across the strong environmental gradients evident at our site. We hypothesized that differences in tree community composition were being driven by an underlying gradient in soil conditions. Thus, we predicted that environmental filtering would predominate at the site and that the filtering would be strongest on sandier soil with low pH, as these are the conditions least favorable to plant growth. We surveyed eleven 0.25 ha (50x50 m) plots for all trees above 10 cm dbh (1221 individual trees, including 47 families, 70 genera and 123 species) and sampled soils in each plot. For each species in the community, we measured 11 commonly studied plant functional traits covering both the leaf and wood economic spectrum traits and we reconstructed a phylogenetic tree for 115 of the species in the community using rbcL and matK sequences downloaded from Genebank (other species were not available). Finally we compared the distribution of trait values and species at two scales (among plots and 10x10m subplots) to examine trait and phylogenetic community structures. Although there was strong evidence that an underlying soil gradient was determining patterns of species composition at the site, our results did not support the hypothesis that the environmental filtering dominated community assembly processes. For the measured plant functional traits there was no consistent pattern of trait dispersion across the site, either when traits were considered individually or when combined in a multivariate analysis. However, there was a significant correlation between the degree of phylogenetic dispersion and the first principle component axis (PCA1) for the soil parameters. Moreover, the more phylogenetically clustered plots were on sandier soils with lower pH. Hence, we suggest that the community assembly processes across our site may reflect the influence of more conserved traits that we did not measure. Nevertheless, our results are equivocal and other interpretations are possible. Our study illustrates some difficulties in combining trait and phylogenetic approaches that may result from the complexities of integrating spatial and evolutionary processes that vary at different scales.

Project description:A large fraction of Plasmodium infections do not cause clinical signs and symptoms of disease and persist at densities in blood that are not detectable by microscopy or rapid diagnostic tests. These infections may be critical as a transmission reservoir in areas of low malaria endemicity. Understanding the epidemiology of these infections would be helpful for malaria elimination.A cross-sectional survey was conducted in Thapangthong and Nong Districts of Savannakhet Province, Lao PDR, to determine the prevalence of parasitaemia. A total of 888 blood samples were collected from afebrile volunteers aged ?15 years in 18 villages during March and July 2015. Plasmodium infections were diagnosed by rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) and high volume, ultra-sensitive quantitative polymerase chain reaction (uPCR).uPCR detected Plasmodium infections in 175 of 888 samples (20 %). The species distribution was Plasmodium falciparum 3.6 % (32/888), Plasmodium vivax 11.1 % (99/888), mixed infections with P. falciparum and P. vivax 1.6 % (14/888) and Plasmodium of undetermined species 3.4 % (30/888). RDT identified only 2 % (18/888) positive cases. Using uPCR as reference, the sensitivity and specificity of RDTs were 28 and 100 %, respectively, in detecting P. falciparum infections, and 3 and 99 % in detecting asymptomatic P. vivax infections. The K13 kelch propeller domain C580Y mutation, associated with reduced susceptibility to artemisinin derivatives, was found in 75 % (12/18) of P. falciparum isolates from Thapangthong and in 7 % (2/28) from Nong (p < 0.001). In a multivariate analysis, males were more likely to have P. vivax infections [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 4.76 (95 % CI 2.84-8.00)] while older villagers were at lower risk for parasitaemia [aOR for increasing age 0.98 (95 % CI 0.96-0.99)].There is a high prevalence of asymptomatic Plasmodium infections in southern Savannakhet. Artemisinin-resistant P. falciparum strains form an increasing proportion of the parasite population in Thapangthong District and are already present in the more remote Nong District. This worrying trend has wider implications for Laos and could reverse the gains achieved by the successful control of malaria in Laos and the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS). Rapid elimination of P. falciparum has to be a top priority in Laos as well as in the wider GMS.

Project description:BackgroundOpisthorchis viverrini is a food-borne trematode species that might give rise to biliary diseases and the fatal cholangiocarcinoma. In Lao PDR, an estimated 2.5 million individuals are infected with O. viverrini, but epidemiological studies are scarce and the spatial distribution of infection remains to be determined. Our aim was to map the distribution of O. viverrini in southern Lao PDR, identify underlying risk factors, and predict the prevalence of O. viverrini at non-surveyed locations.MethodologyA cross-sectional parasitological and questionnaire survey was carried out in 51 villages in Champasack province in the first half of 2007. Data on demography, socioeconomic status, water supply, sanitation, and behavior were combined with remotely sensed environmental data and fed into a geographical information system. Bayesian geostatistical models were employed to identify risk factors and to investigate the spatial pattern of O. viverrini infection. Bayesian kriging was utilized to predict infection risk at non-surveyed locations.Principal findingsThe prevalence of O. viverrini among 3,371 study participants with complete data records was 61.1%. Geostatistical models identified age, Lao Loum ethnic group, educational attainment, occupation (i.e., rice farmer, fisherman, and animal breeder), and unsafe drinking water source as risk factors for infection. History of praziquantel treatment, access to sanitation, and distance to freshwater bodies were found to be protective factors. Spatial patterns of O. viverrini were mainly governed by environmental factors with predictive modeling identifying two different risk profiles: low risk of O. viverrini in the mountains and high risk in the Mekong corridor.Conclusions/significanceWe present the first risk map of O. viverrini infection in Champasack province, which is important for spatial targeting of control efforts. Infection with O. viverrini appears to be strongly associated with exposure to the second intermediate host fish, human behavior and culture, whereas high transmission is sustained by the lack of sanitation.

Project description:BackgroundIn the context of national and regional goals to eliminate malaria by 2030, the Center for Malaria Parasitology and Entomology in the Lao PDR is implementing strategies to ensure all malaria cases are detected and appropriately treated with first-line artemisinin combination therapy, artemether-lumefantrine (AL). Timely and relevant evidence to inform policies and strategies is needed to ensure the most effective and efficient use of resources, and to accelerate progress towards elimination goals. A 2015 outlet survey conducted in five provinces of the southern Lao PDR was the first of its kind to study the total market for malaria treatments and diagnostics. The sub-national outlet survey was designed to describe the market and to assess public and private sector readiness and performance for malaria case management. Additionally, key indicators were estimated among private outlets within districts with and without a Public Private Mix (PPM) programme.ResultsOver half of anti-malarial stockists were public sector (65.1%). In the private sector, pharmacies most commonly stocked anti-malarials, although anti-malarials were also found in private health facilities, drug stores, general retailers, and itinerant drug vendors. Nearly all anti-malarial stocking public health facilities had AL (99.5%) and 90.8% had confirmatory testing. Fewer than half of anti-malarial stocking private outlets stocked AL (40.8%) and malaria testing (43.5%). Chloroquine has not been a first-line treatment for Plasmodium falciparum malaria since 2005 and Plasmodium vivax since 2011 yet private sector availability was 77.6% and chloroquine accounted for 62.2% of the total anti-malarial market share. AL and confirmatory testing availability were higher in private outlets in PPM (68.1, 72.6%) versus non-PPM districts (2.5, 12.1%). Chloroquine was available in 63.6% of PPM and 96.7% of non-PPM-district outlets, and was the most commonly distributed anti-malarial among private outlets in both PPM (61.7%) and non-PPM districts (99.1%).ConclusionsPublic sector outlets in the southern Lao PDR are typically equipped to test and appropriately treat malaria. There is need to address widespread private sector availability and distribution of chloroquine. The PPM programme has improved private provider readiness to manage malaria according to national guidelines. However, supporting interventions to address provider and consumer behaviours are needed to further drive uptake.

Project description:BackgroundDespite significant decline in malarial incidence and mortality in countries across the Greater Mekong Subregion, the disease remains a public health challenge in the region; transmission continues mainly among people who visit forests in remote areas, often along international borders, where access to primary healthcare is limited. In the absence of effective vector-control measures and limited exposure periods, malaria chemoprophylaxis has been proposed as a strategy to protect forest goers. As a rarely used approach for indigenous populations, questions remain about its feasibility and acceptability. Drawing on in-depth interviews with forest goers and stakeholders, this article examines opportunities and challenges for implementation of anti-malarial chemoprophylaxis for forest goers in Lao PDR.MethodsIn-depth interviews were conducted with 16 forest goers and 15 stakeholders in Savannakhet province, Lao PDR. Interview topics included experience of malaria prevention and health services, and perceptions of prophylaxis as a potential component of malaria elimination strategy. The interviews were transcribed and coded using inductive and deductive approaches for qualitative thematic analysis.ResultsIn ethnically and geographically diverse villages, awareness of malaria risk prompts forest goers to protect themselves, albeit sub-optimally using available preventive measures. Stakeholders highlighted challenges for targeting at-risk populations and approaches to address forest malaria in southern Lao PDR. Among policymakers, choice and cost of anti-malarials, particularly their efficacy and source of funding, were key considerations for the feasibility of malaria prophylaxis. Acceptability of prophylaxis among forest goers was also influenced by the complexity of the regimen, including the number of tablets and timing of doses. Implementation of prophylaxis may be affected by a lack of transportation and communication barriers in remote communities.ConclusionAdding prophylaxis to existing malaria control activities requires strengthening the capacity of local health workers in Lao PDR. Ideally, this would be part of an integrated approach that includes strategies to address the other febrile illnesses that forest goers describe as priority health concerns. The prophylactic regimen also requires careful consideration in terms of effectiveness and simplicity of dosing.

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Population size estimation of seasonal forest-going populations in southern Lao PDR.

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