Machine learning as the new approach in understanding biomarkers of suicidal behavior.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Videtic Paska A
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8292863 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:The convergence of smart technologies and predictive modelling in prisons presents an exciting opportunity to revolutionize the monitoring of inmate behaviour, allowing for the early detection of signs of distress and the effective mitigation of suicide risks. While machine learning algorithms have been extensively employed in predicting suicidal behaviour, a critical aspect that has often been overlooked is the interoperability of these models. Most of the work done on model interpretations for suicide predictions often limits itself to feature reduction and highlighting important contributing features only. To address this research gap, we used Anchor explanations for creating human-readable statements based on simple rules, which, to our knowledge, have never been used before for suicide prediction models. We also overcome the limitation of anchor explanations, which create weak rules on high-dimensionality datasets, by first reducing data features with the help of SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). We further reduce data features through anchor interpretations for the final ensemble model of XGBoost and random forest. Our results indicate significant improvement when compared with state-of-the-art models, having an accuracy and precision of 98.6% and 98.9%, respectively. The F1-score for the best suicide ideation model appeared to be 96.7%.
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Project description:Currently, the identification of stroke patients with an increased suicide risk is mainly based on self-report questionnaires, and this method suffers from a lack of objectivity. This study developed and validated a suicide ideation (SI) prediction model using clinical data and identified SI predictors. Significant variables were selected through traditional statistical analysis based on retrospective data of 385 stroke patients; the data were collected from October 2012 to March 2014. The data were then applied to three boosting models (Xgboost, CatBoost, and LGBM) to identify the comparative and best performing models. Demographic variables that showed significant differences between the two groups were age, onset, type, socioeconomic, and education level. Additionally, functional variables also showed a significant difference with regard to ADL and emotion (p < 0.05). The CatBoost model (0.900) showed higher performance than the other two models; and depression, anxiety, self-efficacy, and rehabilitation motivation were found to have high importance. Negative emotions such as depression and anxiety showed a positive relationship with SI and rehabilitation motivation and self-efficacy displayed an inverse relationship with SI. Machine learning-based SI models could augment SI prevention by helping rehabilitation and medical professionals identify high-risk stroke patients in need of SI prevention intervention.
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Project description:Suicidal thoughts and behaviours are prevalent among college students. Yet little is known about screening tools to identify students at higher risk. We aimed to develop a risk algorithm to identify the main predictors of suicidal thoughts and behaviours among college students within one-year of baseline assessment. We used data collected in 2013-2019 from the French i-Share cohort, a longitudinal population-based study including 5066 volunteer students. To predict suicidal thoughts and behaviours at follow-up, we used random forests models with 70 potential predictors measured at baseline, including sociodemographic and familial characteristics, mental health and substance use. Model performance was measured using the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC), sensitivity, and positive predictive value. At follow-up, 17.4% of girls and 16.8% of boys reported suicidal thoughts and behaviours. The models achieved good predictive performance: AUC, 0.8; sensitivity, 79% for girls, 81% for boys; and positive predictive value, 40% for girls and 36% for boys. Among the 70 potential predictors, four showed the highest predictive power: 12-month suicidal thoughts, trait anxiety, depression symptoms, and self-esteem. We identified a parsimonious set of mental health indicators that accurately predicted one-year suicidal thoughts and behaviours in a community sample of college students.
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Project description:Machine learning analysis of social media data represents a promising way to capture longitudinal environmental influences contributing to individual risk for suicidal thoughts and behaviors. Our objective was to generate an algorithm termed "Suicide Artificial Intelligence Prediction Heuristic (SAIPH)" capable of predicting future risk to suicidal thought by analyzing publicly available Twitter data. We trained a series of neural networks on Twitter data queried against suicide associated psychological constructs including burden, stress, loneliness, hopelessness, insomnia, depression, and anxiety. Using 512,526 tweets from N = 283 suicidal ideation (SI) cases and 3,518,494 tweets from 2655 controls, we then trained a random forest model using neural network outputs to predict binary SI status. The model predicted N = 830 SI events derived from an independent set of 277 suicidal ideators relative to N = 3159 control events in all non-SI individuals with an AUC of 0.88 (95% CI 0.86-0.90). Using an alternative approach, our model generates temporal prediction of risk such that peak occurrences above an individual specific threshold denote a ~7 fold increased risk for SI within the following 10 days (OR = 6.7 ± 1.1, P = 9 × 10-71). We validated our model using regionally obtained Twitter data and observed significant associations of algorithm SI scores with county-wide suicide death rates across 16 days in August and in October, 2019, most significantly in younger individuals. Algorithmic approaches like SAIPH have the potential to identify individual future SI risk and could be easily adapted as clinical decision tools aiding suicide screening and risk monitoring using available technologies.
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Project description:Background and purpose: Growing evidence suggests that Machine Learning (ML) models can assist the diagnosis of neurological disorders. However, little is known about the potential application of ML in diagnosing idiopathic REM sleep behavior disorder (iRBD), a parasomnia characterized by a high risk of phenoconversion to synucleinopathies. This study aimed to develop a model using ML algorithms to identify iRBD patients and test its accuracy. Methods: Data were acquired from 32 participants (20 iRBD patients and 12 controls). All subjects underwent a video-polysomnography. In all subjects, we measured the components of heart rate variability (HRV) during 24 h recordings and calculated night-to-day ratios (cardiac autonomic indices). Discriminating performances of single HRV features were assessed. ML models based on Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF) and eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) were trained on HRV data. The utility of HRV features and ML models for detecting iRBD was evaluated by area under the ROC curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity and accuracy corresponding to optimal models. Results: Cardiac autonomic indices had low performances (accuracy 63-69%) in distinguishing iRBD from control subjects. By contrast, the RF model performed the best, with excellent accuracy (94%), sensitivity (95%) and specificity (92%), while XGBoost showed accuracy (91%), specificity (83%) and sensitivity (95%). The mean triangular index during wake (TIw) was the best discriminating feature between iRBD and HC, with 81% accuracy, reaching 84% accuracy when combined with VLF power during sleep using an LR model. Conclusions: Our findings demonstrated that ML algorithms can accurately identify iRBD patients. Our model could be used in clinical practice to facilitate the early detection of this form of RBD.
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Project description:Chronic low back pain (LBP) is a very common health problem worldwide and a major cause of disability. Yet, the lack of quantifiable metrics on which to base clinical decisions leads to imprecise treatments, unnecessary surgery and reduced patient outcomes. Although, the focus of LBP has largely focused on the spine, the literature demonstrates a robust reorganization of the human brain in the setting of LBP. Brain neuroimaging holds promise for the discovery of biomarkers that will improve the treatment of chronic LBP. In this study, we report on morphological changes in cerebral cortical thickness (CT) and resting-state functional connectivity (rsFC) measures as potential brain biomarkers for LBP. Structural MRI scans, resting state functional MRI scans and self-reported clinical scores were collected from 24 LBP patients and 27 age-matched healthy controls (HC). The results suggest widespread differences in CT in LBP patients relative to HC. These differences in CT are correlated with self-reported clinical summary scores, the Physical Component Summary and Mental Component Summary scores. The primary visual, secondary visual and default mode networks showed significant age-corrected increases in connectivity with multiple networks in LBP patients. Cortical regions classified as hubs based on their eigenvector centrality (EC) showed differences in their topology within motor and visual processing regions. Finally, a support vector machine trained using CT to classify LBP subjects from HC achieved an average classification accuracy of 74.51%, AUC = 0.787 (95% CI: 0.66-0.91). The findings from this study suggest widespread changes in CT and rsFC in patients with LBP while a machine learning algorithm trained using CT can predict patient group. Taken together, these findings suggest that CT and rsFC may act as potential biomarkers for LBP to guide therapy.
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Project description:This study aimed to identify subgroups of depressed older adults with distinct trajectories of suicidal ideation during brief psychotherapy and to detect modifiable predictors of membership to the trajectories of suicidal ideation. Latent growth mixed models were used to identify trajectories of the presence of suicidal ideation in participants to a randomized controlled trial comparing Problem Solving Therapy with "Engage" therapy in older adults with major depression over 9 weeks. Predictors of membership to trajectories of suicidal ideation were identified by the convergence of four machine learning models, i.e., least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic regression, random forest, gradient boosting machine, and classification tree. The course of suicidal ideation was best captured by two trajectories, a favorable and an unfavorable trajectory comprising 173 and 76 participants respectively. Members of the favorable trajectory had no suicidal ideation by week 8. In contrast, members of the unfavorable trajectory had a 60% probability of suicidal ideation by treatment end. Convergent findings of the four machine learning models identified hopelessness, neuroticism, and low general self-efficacy as the strongest predictors of membership to the unfavorable trajectory of suicidal ideation during psychotherapy. Assessment of suicide risk should include hopelessness, neuroticism, and general self-efficacy as they are predictors of an unfavorable course of suicidal ideation in depressed older adults receiving psychotherapy. Psychotherapeutic interventions exist for hopelessness, emotional reactivity related to neuroticism, and low self-efficacy, and if used during therapy, may improve the course of suicidal ideation.
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