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Estimation of Heat-Attributable Mortality Using the Cross-Validated Best Temperature Metric in Switzerland and South Korea.

ABSTRACT: This study presents a novel method for estimating the heat-attributable fractions (HAF) based on the cross-validated best temperature metric. We analyzed the association of eight temperature metrics (mean, maximum, minimum temperature, maximum temperature during daytime, minimum temperature during nighttime, and mean, maximum, and minimum apparent temperature) with mortality and performed the cross-validation method to select the best model in selected cities of Switzerland and South Korea from May to September of 1995-2015. It was observed that HAF estimated using different metrics varied by 2.69-4.09% in eight cities of Switzerland and by 0.61-0.90% in six cities of South Korea. Based on the cross-validation method, mean temperature was estimated to be the best metric, and it revealed that the HAF of Switzerland and South Korea were 3.29% and 0.72%, respectively. Furthermore, estimates of HAF were improved by selecting the best city-specific model for each city, that is, 3.34% for Switzerland and 0.78% for South Korea. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to observe the uncertainty of HAF estimation originated from the selection of temperature metric and to present the HAF estimation based on the cross-validation method.

SUBMITTER: Lee JY

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8296236 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundIt is essential to have information on the disease burden of lung cancer at an individual level throughout the life; however, few such results have been reported. Thus, this study aimed to assess the lifetime disease burden in patients with lung cancer by assessing various factors, such as survival, years of life lost (YLL) and medical expenditure in South Korea based on real-world data and extrapolation.MethodsNewly diagnosed lung cancer patients (n?=?2919) in 2004-2010 were selected and observed until the end of 2015 using nationwide reimbursement claim database. The patients were categorised into the Surgery group, Chemo and/or Radiotherapy group (CTx/RTx), and Surgery+CTx/RTx according to their treatment modality. Age- and sex-matched control subjects were selected from among general population using the life table. The survival and cost data after diagnosis were analysed by a semi-parametric method, the Kaplan-Meier analysis for the first 100?months and rolling extrapolation algorithm for 101-300?months. YLL were derived from the difference in survival between patients and controls.ResultsLifetime estimates (standard error) were 4.5 (0.2) years for patients and 14.5 (0.1) years for controls and the derived YLL duration was 10.0 (0.2) years. Lifetime survival years showed the following trend: Surgery (14.2?years)?>?Surgery+CTx/RTx (8.5?years)?>?CTx/RTx group (3.0?years), and YLL were increased as lifetime survival years decreased (2.3, 8.7, 12.2?years, respectively). The mean lifetime medical cost was estimated at 30,857 USD/patient. Patients in the Surgery group paid higher treatment cost in first year after diagnosis, but the overall mean cost per year was lower at 4359 USD compared with 7075USD of Surgery+CTx/RTx or 7626USD of CTx/RTx group.ConclusionsLung cancer has resulted in about 10?years of life lost in overall patients. The losses were associated with treatment modality, and the results indicated that diagnosing lung cancer in patients with low stage disease eligible for surgery is beneficial for reducing disease burden in terms of survival and treatment cost per year throughout the life.

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Estimation of Heat-Attributable Mortality Using the Cross-Validated Best Temperature Metric in Switzerland and South Korea.

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