Dataset Information

Future Incidence of Malignant Mesothelioma in South Korea: Updated Projection to 2038.

ABSTRACT: Malignant mesothelioma (MM) is a cancer that is largely caused by exposure to asbestos. Although asbestos is no longer used in South Korea, the incidence of MM continues to increase due to its long latent period. We aimed to update the previous prediction of MM incidence until 2038. We predicted the incidence of MM over the next 20 years (2019-2038) in South Korea using Møller's age-period-cohort (APC) model and a Poisson regression model based on asbestos consumption. The APC model predicted that the crude incidence rate would increase sharply in men and slowly in women. Despite the sex discrepancy in the rate of increase, the incidence rate for both sexes is expected to continue increasing until 2038. In the Poisson model, the crude incidence rate was predicted to increase continuously until 2038, and far more cases of MM were predicted to occur compared with the results of the APC model. When compared with actual incidence data, the APC model was deemed more suitable than the Poisson model. The APC model predicted a continuous increase over the next 20 years with no peak, suggesting that the incidence of MM will continue to rise far into the future.

SUBMITTER: Kwak K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8296497 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Future Incidence of Malignant Mesothelioma in South Korea: Updated Projection to 2038.

Kwak Kyeongmin K Cho Sung-Il SI Paek Domyung D

International journal of environmental research and public health 20210619 12

Malignant mesothelioma (MM) is a cancer that is largely caused by exposure to asbestos. Although asbestos is no longer used in South Korea, the incidence of MM continues to increase due to its long latent period. We aimed to update the previous prediction of MM incidence until 2038. We predicted the incidence of MM over the next 20 years (2019-2038) in South Korea using Møller's age-period-cohort (APC) model and a Poisson regression model based on asbestos consumption. The APC model predicted th ...[more]

PMID: 34205400

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Project description:BackgroundThe annual number of hip arthroplasties is increasing combined with the aging population worldwide. In accordance with the increasing number of primary hip arthroplasties, the number of revision total hip arthroplasties (THAs) is expected to increase. The incidence and burden of revision THAs in the United States and have been reported by registry studies. To identify potential differences according to ethnics and regional practice, it is important to obtain data from East Asia. Nevertheless, there has been a lack of studies on the burden and future projection of revision THA based on a large-scale database in East Asia. The purpose of this study was to evaluate annual incidence and burden of revision THAs and to project the future burden in South Korea.MethodsWe identified primary THAs, primary hemiarthroplasties (HAs) and revision THAs, which were performed from 2010 to 2018, using database of Health Insurance and Review and Assessment (HIRA); nation-wide medical claim system of South Korea. The annual incidence rates (per 100,000) of primary THA, primary HA and revision THA, and the annual burden of revision THA; the number of revision THAs divided by the sum of primary hip arthroplasties and revision THAs, were calculated. The future burden of revision THAs were projected through 2030 using generalized linear model with Quasi-poisson regression.ResultsDuring the 9-year period, the annual incidences of primary THA, primary HA and revision THA increased by 47, 29 and 3%, respectively, while the revision burden decreased from 0.13 to 0.10. Compared to 2018, the annual incidences of primary THA, HA, and revision THA were projected to increase by 7.2, 2.3 and 1.1% per year, respectively, whereas the burden of revision THA was projected to decrease to 0.07 in 2030.ConclusionTrends of revision THA in South Korea were similar with those of national registry studies from the United States. The annual incidence of revision THA has steadily increased, whereas its burden has decreased. Findings of our study could be used for epidemiological comparison between Western countries and East Asia as well as for the establishment of medical policies of revision THA in East Asian countries.

Dataset Information

Future Incidence of Malignant Mesothelioma in South Korea: Updated Projection to 2038.

Publications

Future Incidence of Malignant Mesothelioma in South Korea: Updated Projection to 2038.

Similar Datasets

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