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Attribution of changes in the trend and temporal non-uniformity of extreme precipitation events in Central Asia.

ABSTRACT: Extreme precipitation events exhibit an increasing trend for both the frequency and magnitude on global and regional scales and it has already proven the impact of man-made global warming on the extreme precipitation amplification. Based on the observed datasets and global climate model (GCM) output, this study has evaluated the impact from anthropogenic forcing on the trend and temporal non-uniformity (i.e. increase in unevenness or disparity) of the precipitation amounts (PRCPTOT), extremes (R95p and RX5day) and intensity (SDII) in Central Asia (CA) from 1961 to 2005. Results indicate that radiative forcing changes, mainly driven by human activities, have significantly augmented the extreme precipitation indices in CA. The median trend with the influence of anthropogenic activities for the PRCPTOT, SDII, R95p and RX5day amounted to 2.19 mm/decade, 0.019 mm/decade, 1.39 mm/decade and 0.21 mm/decade during the study period, respectively. A statistically insignificant decrease in non-uniformity was noticed for the PRCPTOT, SDII and RX5day in Central CA (CCA) and Western CA (WCA), while Eastern CA (ECA) was the only region with a statistically significant increase in non-uniformity of the PRCPTOT, SDII, R95p and RX5day by 4.22%, 3.98%, 3.73% and 3.97%, respectively from 1961 to 2005 due to anthropogenic forcing. These results reflect the difference in various regions regarding the impact of anthropogenic forcing on the non-uniformity of extreme precipitation events in CA, which might help to fully understand the role of anthropogenic forcing in the changes of the precipitation extremes in CA and contribute to the development of water resource management strategies.

SUBMITTER: Zou S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8298420 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:In the context of global climate change, changes in precipitation patterns will have profound effects on desert plants, particularly on shallow-rooted plants, such as ephemeral plants. Therefore, we conducted an experiment on artificial control of precipitation for four dominant ephemeral plants, Erodium oxyrhinchum, Alyssum linifolium, Malcolmia scorpioides, and Hyalea pulchella, in the southern edge of Gurbantunggut Desert. We measured the importance value and some growth parameters of the four species under increased or decreased precipitation and constructed trait correlation networks for each of the four species. We also compared the response of increased or decreased precipitation to vegetation coverage. The results show that drought significantly reduced the survival rate, seed production and weight, and aboveground biomass accumulation of ephemeral plants. The four ephemeral plants showed different tolerance and response strategies to precipitation changes. E. oxyrhinchum and M. scorpioides can avoid drought by accelerating life history, and E. oxyrhinchum, A. linifolium, and H. pulchella can alleviate the negative effects of drought by adjusting leaf traits. However, the response of different species to the wet treatment was not consistent. Based on the results of the trait correlation network, we consider A. linifolium belongs to the ruderal plant, E. oxyrhinchum and M. scorpioides belong to the competitive plants, and H. pulchella belongs to the stress-tolerant plant. The outstanding trait coordination ability of E. oxyrhinchum makes it show absolute dominance in the community. This indicate that ephemeral plants can adapt to precipitation changes to a certain extent, and that distinct competitive advantages in growth or reproduction enabled species coexistence in the same ecological niche. Nevertheless, drought significantly reduces their community cover and the ecological value of ephemeral plants. These findings established the basis to predict vegetation dynamics in arid areas under precipitation changes.

Dataset Information

Attribution of changes in the trend and temporal non-uniformity of extreme precipitation events in Central Asia.

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