Delayed respiratory syncytial virus epidemic in children after relaxation of COVID-19 physical distancing measures, Ashdod, Israel, 2021.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Weinberger Opek M
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8299746 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Greece imposed a nationwide lockdown in March 2020 to mitigate transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 during the first epidemic wave. We conducted a survey on age-specific social contact patterns to assess effects of physical distancing measures and used a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model to simulate the epidemic. Because multiple distancing measures were implemented simultaneously, we assessed their overall effects and the contribution of each measure. Before measures were implemented, the estimated basic reproduction number (R0) was 2.38 (95% CI 2.01-2.80). During lockdown, daily contacts decreased by 86.9% and R0 decreased by 81.0% (95% credible interval [CrI] 71.8%-86.0%); each distancing measure decreased R0 by 10%-24%. By April 26, the attack rate in Greece was 0.12% (95% CrI 0.06%-0.26%), one of the lowest in Europe, and the infection fatality ratio was 1.12% (95% CrI 0.55%-2.31%). Multiple social distancing measures contained the first epidemic wave in Greece.
| S-EPMC7853557 | biostudies-literature
Project description:RSV is the leading cause of lower respiratory-tract infections in infants and therefore demands in-depth epidemiological characterization. We investigated here the distribution of RSV types in Israel between the years 2005-2012. Clinical samples were collected from 11,018 patients hospitalized due to respiratory illnesses and were evaluated for the presence of various respiratory viruses, including RSV A and RSV B. Until 2008, each year was characterized by the presence of one dominant type of RSV. However, from 2008, both RSV A and B types were detected at significant levels, particularly among infants aged 0-2 years. Furthermore, significant changes in the RSV A and RSV B subtypes circulating in Israel since 2008 were observed. Finally, we demonstrate that, irrespectively of the changes observed in RSV epidemiology, when the pandemic H1N1pdm09 influenza virus appeared in 2009, RSV infections were delayed and were detected when infection with H1N1pdm09 had declined.
| S-EPMC3940902 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundWhen coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) restrictions were lifted in Denmark in the spring of 2021, a surge in respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) cases followed, causing a large out-of-season epidemic. This study aims to investigate the summer epidemic compared with 3 typical pre-COVID-19 RSV winter seasons using Danish registers to identify RSV cases, RSV-related admissions, and use of intensive care treatment.MethodsIncidence rates (IR) per 1000 person-years for RSV cases, RSV-related admissions, and intensive care treatment were calculated with 95% confidence interval (CI) for each season, stratified by age groups and incidence rate ratios (IRR) with 95% CI were calculated to compare the summer epidemic with the winter season for 2019-2020.ResultsIn the summer epidemic, the IR of RSV cases and admissions exceeded previous winter seasons for all age groups. The highest increases in IRs were seen among children aged 2 to 3 years and 4 to 5 years. The IRR of cases were 4.6 (95% CI, 4.1-5.2) and 3.3 (2.6-4.2) and the IRR of admissions were 3.3 (2.7-4.2) and 3.8 (2.3-6.5) in the 2 age groups, respectively, when compared with the winter season 2019-2020.ConclusionsLikely because of immunity debt following COVID-19 restrictions, the summer epidemic was significantly larger than previous winter seasons, most markedly among children aged 2 to 3 and 4 to 5 years but had a similar disease severity spectrum.
| S-EPMC10941316 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Postlicensure surveillance of pneumonia incidence can be used to estimate whether pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) affect incidence. We used Poisson regression models that control for baseline seasonality to determine the impact of PCVs and the possible effects of variations in virus activity in Israel on these surveillance estimates. PCV was associated with significant declines in radiologically confirmed alveolar pneumonia (RCAP) among patients <6 months, 6-17 months, and 18-35 months of age (-31% [95% CI -51% to -15%], -41% [95% CI -52 to -32%], and -34% [95% CI -42% to -25%], respectively). Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) activity was associated with strong increases in RCAP incidence, with up to 44% of cases attributable to RSV among infants <6 months of age and lower but significant impacts in older children. Seasonal variations, particularly in RSV activity, masked the impact of 7-valent PCVs, especially for young children in the first 2 years after vaccine introduction.
| S-EPMC3713978 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesThe unprecedented worldwide social distancing response to COVID-19 resulted in a quick reversal of escalating case numbers. Recently, local governments globally have begun to relax social distancing regulations. Using the situation in Manitoba, Canada as an example, we estimated the impact that social distancing relaxation may have on the pandemic.MethodsWe fit a mathematical model to empirically estimated numbers of people infected, recovered, and died from COVID-19 in Manitoba. We then explored the impact of social distancing relaxation on: (a) time until near elimination of COVID-19 (< one case per million), (b) time until peak prevalence, (c) proportion of the population infected within one year, (d) peak prevalence, and (e) deaths within one year.ResultsAssuming a closed population, near elimination of COVID-19 in Manitoba could have been achieved in 4-6 months (by July or August) if there were no relaxation of social distancing. Relaxing to 15% of pre-COVID effective contacts may extend the local epidemic for more than two years (median 2.1). Relaxation to 50% of pre-COVID effective contacts may result in a peak prevalence of 31-38% of the population, within 3-4 months of initial relaxation.ConclusionSlight relaxation of social distancing may immensely impact the pandemic duration and expected peak prevalence. Only holding the course with respect to social distancing may have resulted in near elimination before Fall of 2020; relaxing social distancing to 15% of pre-COVID-19 contacts will flatten the epidemic curve but greatly extend the duration of the pandemic.
| S-EPMC7787456 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundEthnic disparities have been shown in respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) bronchiolitis. However, it is unclear whether such differences are related to access to care. We compared demographic and clinical characteristics of Arab and Jewish children hospitalized for RSV bronchiolitis in Israel, a country with universal health insurance.MethodsWe reviewed the medical records of all children (n = 309) aged less than 24 months who were hospitalized with RSV between 2008 and 2011 in one medical center in Israel. Demographic, clinical, laboratory and radiological data were collected. The RSV antigen was identified using immunochromatography.ResultsThe annual incidence of RSV hospitalization was 5.4/1000 and 6.8/1000 among Arab and Jewish children, respectively. Arab patients were significantly younger and had significantly younger parents; most lived in low socioeconomic status towns (93.7% vs. 13.3%; p<0.001) and had more siblings (median 2 vs. 1; p = 0.01) compared to Jewish patients. Disease severity did not differ between the two ethnic groups (p = 0.3). The main predictors of severe illness were having pneumonia (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 3.86; 95% confidence intervals [CI] 1.87-7.97) and history of respiratory diseases (adjusted OR 3.89; 95% CI 1.22-12.38).ConclusionsThe incidence of hospitalizations for RSV bronchiolitis tended to be higher among Jewish than Arab children, possibly due to differences in health care utilization patterns. Differences between the Jewish and Arab patients in demographic factors likely mirror differences between the groups in the general population. Pneumonia, and not ethnicity, affected the severity of RSV bronchiolitis.
| S-EPMC6443173 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Characterization of the human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) season at the local level has important implications for appropriate decisions on the time period for administration of specific prophylaxis. OBJECTIVES:(1) To describe five consecutive epidemic periods of HRSV in an equatorial city of Brazil and (2) to show preliminary data on genomic diversity of circulating HRSV. PATIENTS/METHODS:Nasopharyngeal aspirates of 2885 children attending the emergency room and wards of a public hospital were collected and screened by indirect immunofluorescence for HRSV infections during five consecutive years (from January 2004 to December 2008). In addition, the genetic and antigenic variability of the HRSV strains isolated was evaluated by partial nucleotide sequencing of the protein G gene. RESULTS:HRSV was detected in 15·8% of the analyzed samples. HRSV seasons occurred in a restricted period of each year. The onset of each HRSV season was variable (February to May), but the end always occurred in July. From the 456 HRSV infections found, 86 cases with bronchiolitis were genotyped. Both HRSV subgroups (A and B) cocirculated during the five epidemic periods. The 58 HRSV-A strains grouped into two clades, GA2 and GA5. In respect of the HRSV-B strains, the 28 samples grouped into two clades: GB3 and BA. CONCLUSIONS:HRSV accounts for a substantial proportion of ARI in the study population. As in temperate countries, HRSV infections in this equatorial area of Brazil also cause seasonal yearly epidemics, and this has implications for prophylaxis strategies. The city of Fortaleza follows the same worldwide trend of circulation of genotypes of HRSV.
| S-EPMC4634240 | biostudies-literature
Project description:A key question for infectious disease dynamics is the impact of the climate on future burden. Here, we evaluate the climate drivers of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), an important determinant of disease in young children. We combine a dataset of county-level observations from the US with state-level observations from Mexico, spanning much of the global range of climatological conditions. Using a combination of nonlinear epidemic models with statistical techniques, we find consistent patterns of climate drivers at a continental scale explaining latitudinal differences in the dynamics and timing of local epidemics. Strikingly, estimated effects of precipitation and humidity on transmission mirror prior results for influenza. We couple our model with projections for future climate, to show that temperature-driven increases to humidity may lead to a northward shift in the dynamic patterns observed and that the likelihood of severe outbreaks of RSV hinges on projections for extreme rainfall.
| S-EPMC6892805 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPhysical distancing measures taken to contain COVID-19 transmission may substantially reduce physical activity levels and cause individuals to adopt a more sedentary lifestyle.ObjectiveThe objective of this study is to determine if there was any change in daily steps, an important component of daily physical activity, and examine risk factors for frequent low daily steps during the COVID-19 epidemic.MethodsWe used data collected from the Step Study, a population-based longitudinal study of walking activity among residents aged ≥40 years in Changsha, China. Daily steps were collected via a smartphone linked to WeChat, a social networking platform. We plotted mean daily steps and the prevalence of low daily steps (≤1500 steps/day) 30 days before (reference period) and 30 days after (epidemic period) January 21, 2020 (date of the first COVID-19 case diagnosed in Changsha), and compared it with the same corresponding period from 2019. We examined the association of risk factors with the prevalence of frequent low daily steps (≤1500 steps/day for ≥14 days) using logistic regression.ResultsAmong 3544 participants (mean age 51.6 years; n=1226 females, 34.6%), mean daily steps dropped from 8097 to 5440 and the prevalence of low daily steps increased from 3% (2287/76,136 person-day) to 18.5% (12,951/70,183 person-day) during the reference and epidemic periods, respectively. No such phenomenon was observed during the corresponding period in 2019. Older age (P for interaction=.001) and female sex (P for interaction<.001) were both associated with a higher prevalence of frequent low daily steps and were more pronounced during the epidemic period. More education was associated with a lower prevalence of frequent low daily steps during the reference period but not the epidemic period (P for interaction=.34). Body mass index or comorbidity were not associated with frequent low daily steps during either period.ConclusionsDaily steps of Changsha residents aged ≥40 years dropped significantly during the COVID-19 period, especially among older adults and females. Although successful physical distancing, measured by the rapid downward trend in daily step counts of residents, played a critical role in the containment of the COVID-19 epidemic, our findings of an increase in the prevalence of frequent low daily steps raise concerns about unintended effects on physical activity.
| S-EPMC7592463 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Both influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are active throughout the year in subtropical or tropical regions, but few studies have reported on age-specific seasonal patterns of these viruses. We examined the age-specific epidemic curves of laboratory-confirmed cases of influenza A (subtyped into seasonal A(H1N1), A(H3N2), and pandemic virus A(H1N1)pdm09), influenza B and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), in subtropical city Hong Kong from 2004 to 2013. We found that different types and subtypes of influenza showed similar two-peak patterns across age groups, with one peak in winter and another in spring/summer. Age differences were found in epidemic onset time and duration, but none could reach statistical significance (p > 0.05). Age synchrony was found in epidemic peak time for both cool and warm seasons. RSV showed less clear seasonal patterns and non-synchronized epidemic curves across age. In conclusion, age synchrony was found in influenza seasonal epidemics and the 2009 pandemic, but not in RSV. None of the age groups consistently appear as the driving force for seasonal epidemics of influenza and RSV in Hong Kong.
| S-EPMC4434841 | biostudies-other