Static and Dynamic Prediction of Chronic Renal Disease Progression Using Longitudinal Clinical Data from Taiwan's National Prevention Programs.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Chang YP
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8306754 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Stroke risk prediction based on electronic health records is currently an important research topic. Previous research activities have generally used single-time physiological data to build static models and have focused on algorithms to improve prediction accuracy. Few studies have considered historical measurements from a data perspective to construct dynamic models. Since it is a chronic disease, the risk of having a stroke increases and the corresponding risk factors become abnormal when healthy people are diagnosed with a stroke. Therefore, in this paper, we applied longitudinal data, with the backward joint model, to the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity and Happy Family Study's dataset to monitor changes in individuals' health status precisely on time and to increase the prediction accuracy of the model. The three-year prediction accuracy of our model, considering three measurements of longitudinal parameters, is 0.926. This is higher than the traditional Cox proportional hazard model, which has a 0.833 prediction accuracy. The results obtained in this study verified that longitudinal data improves stroke risk prediction accuracy and is promising for dynamic stroke risk prediction and prevention. Our model also verified that the frequency of fruit consumption, erythrocyte hematocrit, and glucose are potential stroke-related factors.
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Project description:BackgroundTacrolimus is given post-kidney transplant to suppress the immune system, and the amount of drug in the body is measured frequently. Higher variability over time may be indicative of poor drug adherence, leading to more adverse events. It is important to account for the variation in Tacrolimus, not just the average change over time.MethodsUsing data from the University of Colorado, we compare methods of assessing how the variability in Tacrolimus influences the hazard of de novo Donor Specific Antibodies (dnDSA), an early warning sign of graft failure. We compare multiple joint models in terms of fit and predictive ability. We explain that the models that account for the individual-specific variability over time have the best predictive performance. These models allowed each patient to have an individual-specific random error term in the longitudinal Tacrolimus model, and linked this to the hazard of dnDSA model.ResultsThe hazard for the variance and coefficient of variation (CV) loading parameter were greater than 1, indicating that higher variability of Tacrolimus had a higher hazard of dnDSA. Introducing the individual-specific variability improved the fit, leading to more accurate predictions about the individual-specific time-to-dnDSA.ConclusionsWe showed that the individual's variability in Tacrolimus is an important metric in predicting long-term adverse events in kidney transplantation. This is an important step in personalizing the dosage of TAC post-transplant to improve outcomes post-transplant.
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Project description:Studies on health care demand have indicated high levels of public satisfaction with Taiwan's National Health Insurance (NHI). However, the global budget allocation mechanism (GBAM) used by NHI has led to various adjustments in the providers' way of practice, quality of care, utilization of care, and health expenditure. Studies focusing on the satisfaction of providers with health care supply, however, remain limited. We therefore explored the provider's perceived impact of the NHI allocation plan. A cross-sectional data of 299 health professionals was collected at Taipei Medical University Hospitals in April 2012. Perceptions and attitudes were assessed using a validated 5-point Likert-type questionnaire before using a structural equation modeling technique to explore the complex interrelationships of the NHI's perceived impact. The causal path relationships between the latent variables 'characteristics of NHI's allocation plan' and 'perceived positive effect' (? = 0.39), 'perceived positive effect' and 'satisfaction of health professionals' (? = 0.53), and between 'characteristics of NHI's allocation plan' and 'satisfaction of health professionals' (? = 0.30) were positively associated; while the path relationships between the latent variables 'perceived negative effect' and 'satisfaction of health professionals' (? = -0.27) and 'characteristics of NHI's allocation plan' and 'attitude toward allocation criteria' (? = -0.22) were negatively associated. These results indicate that providers perceived a positive impact of the NHI allocation strategy. The NHI allocation plan is an important decision-making tool among policy makers since it helps optimize outcomes. Research based on its impact at both horizontal and vertical levels on the supply side may be useful towards understanding Taiwan's GBAM. Policy-makers should therefore consider understanding the impact of GBAM at both the demand and supply side in adjusting allocation criteria.
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Project description:PurposeTo measure accuracy and speed for detection of vascular progression in retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) from serial images. Two strategies are compared: static side-by-side presentation and dynamic flickering of superimposed image pairs.DesignProspective comparative study.MethodsFifteen de-identified, wide-angle retinal image pairs were taken from infants who eventually developed plus disease. Image pairs representing vascular disease progression were taken ?1 week apart, and control images without progression were taken on the same day. Dynamic flickering pairs were created by digital image registration. Ten experts independently reviewed each image pair on a secure website using both strategies, and were asked to identify progression or state that images were identical. Accuracy and speed were measured, using examination date and ophthalmoscopic findings as a reference standard.ResultsUsing static images, experts were accurate in a mean (%) ± standard deviation (SD) of 11.4 of 15 (76%) ± 1.7 image pairs. Using dynamic flickering images, experts were accurate in a mean (%) ± SD of 11.3 of 15 (75%) ± 1.7 image pairs. There was no significant difference in accuracy between these strategies (P = .420). Diagnostic speed was faster using dynamic flickering (24.7 ± 8.3 seconds) vs static side-by-side images (40.3 ± 18.3 seconds) (P = .002). Experts reported higher confidence when interpreting dynamic flickering images (P = .001).ConclusionsRetinal imaging provides objective documentation of vascular appearance, with potentially improved ability to recognize ROP progression compared to standard ophthalmoscopy. Speed of identifying vascular progression was faster by review of dynamic flickering image pairs than by static side-by-side images, although there was no difference in accuracy.
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Project description:ObjectivesThe objectives of this study were to (1) obtain a national perspective of the current state of nursing home (NH) infection prevention and control (IPC) programs and (2) examine differences in IPC program characteristics for NHs that had and had not received an infection control deficiency citation.DesignA national cross-sectional survey of randomly sampled NHs was conducted and responses were linked with Certification and Survey Provider Enhanced Reporting (CASPER) and NH Compare data.SettingSurveys were completed and returned by 990 NHs (response rate 39%) between December 2013 and December 2014.ParticipantsThe person in charge of the IPC program at each NH completed the survey.MeasurementsThe survey consisted of 34 items related to respondent demographics, IPC program staffing, stability of the workforce, resources and challenges, and resident care and employee processes. Facility characteristics and infection control deficiency citations were assessed using CASPER and NH Compare data.ResultsMost respondents had at least 2 responsibilities in addition to those related to infection control (54%) and had no specific IPC training (61%). Although many practices and processes were consistent with infection prevention guidelines for NHs, there was wide variation in programs across the United States. Approximately 36% of responding facilities had received an infection control deficiency citation. NHs that received citations had infection control professionals with less experience (P = .01) and training (P = .02) and were less likely to provide financial resources for continuing education in infection control (P = .01).ConclusionThe findings demonstrate that a lack of adequately trained infection prevention personnel is an important area for improvement. Furthermore, there is a need to identify specific evidence-based practices to reduce infection risk in NHs.
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