Dataset Information

Evaluation of COVID-19 Mitigation Policies in Australia Using Generalised Space-Time Autoregressive Intervention Models.

ABSTRACT: In handling the COVID-19 pandemic, various mitigation policies aiming at slowing the spread and protecting all individuals, especially the vulnerable ones, were implemented. A careful evaluation of the effectiveness of these policies is necessary so that policy-makers can implement informed decisions if another wave of COVID-19 or another pandemic happens in the future. This paper reports an assessment of some policies introduced by the Australian governments using a generalised space-time autoregressive model which incorporates multiple exogenous variables and delay effects. Our results show that the number of daily new cases from the states and territories are influenced by both temporal and spatial aspects. Business and border restrictions are found helpful in reducing the number of new cases a few days after implementation while gathering restrictions may not be effective.

SUBMITTER: Ip RHL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8306935 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Evaluation of COVID-19 Mitigation Policies in Australia Using Generalised Space-Time Autoregressive Intervention Models.

Ip Ryan H L RHL Demskoi Dmitry D Rahman Azizur A Zheng Lihong L

International journal of environmental research and public health 20210713 14

In handling the COVID-19 pandemic, various mitigation policies aiming at slowing the spread and protecting all individuals, especially the vulnerable ones, were implemented. A careful evaluation of the effectiveness of these policies is necessary so that policy-makers can implement informed decisions if another wave of COVID-19 or another pandemic happens in the future. This paper reports an assessment of some policies introduced by the Australian governments using a generalised space-time autor ...[more]

PMID: 34299921

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Project description:BackgroundRhythmic oscillatory activity is widely observed during a variety of subject behaviors and is believed to play a central role in information processing and control. A classic example of rhythmic activity is alpha spindles, which consist of short (0.5-2 s) bursts of high frequency alpha activity. Recent research has shown that alpha spindles in the parietal/occipital area are statistically related to fatigue and drowsiness. These spindles constitute sharp changes in the underlying statistical properties of the signal. Our hypothesis is that change point detection models can be used to identify the onset and duration of spindles in EEG. In this work we develop an algorithm that accurately identifies sudden bursts of narrowband oscillatory activity in EEG using techniques derived from change point analysis. Our motivating example is detection of alpha spindles in the parietal/occipital areas of the brain. Our goal is to develop an algorithm that can be applied to any type of rhythmic oscillatory activity of interest for accurate online detection.MethodsIn this work we propose modeling the alpha band EEG time series using discounted autoregressive (DAR) modeling. The DAR model uses a discounting rate to weigh points measured further in the past less heavily than points more recently observed. This model is used together with predictive loss scoring to identify periods of EEG data that are statistically significant.ResultsOur algorithm accurately captures changes in the statistical properties of the alpha frequency band. These statistical changes are highly correlated with alpha spindle occurrences and form a reliable measure for detecting alpha spindles in EEG. We achieve approximately 95% accuracy in detecting alpha spindles, with timing precision to within approximately 150 ms, for two datasets from an experiment of prolonged simulated driving, as well as in simulated EEG. Sensitivity and specificity values are above 0.9, and in many cases are above 0.95, for our analysis.ConclusionModeling the alpha band EEG using discounted AR models provides an efficient method for detecting oscillatory alpha activity in EEG. The method is based on statistical principles and can generally be applied to detect rhythmic activity in any frequency band or brain region.

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Dataset Information

Evaluation of COVID-19 Mitigation Policies in Australia Using Generalised Space-Time Autoregressive Intervention Models.

Publications

Evaluation of COVID-19 Mitigation Policies in Australia Using Generalised Space-Time Autoregressive Intervention Models.

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