Evaluation of COVID-19 Mitigation Policies in Australia Using Generalised Space-Time Autoregressive Intervention Models.
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SUBMITTER: Ip RHL
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8306935 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:A time-series is any set of N time-ordered observations of a process. In veterinary epidemiology, our focus is generally on disease occurrence (the "process") over time, but animal production, welfare or other traits might also be of interest. A common source of time-series datasets are animal disease monitoring and surveillance systems. Here, we scan the application of methods to analyse time-series data in the peer-reviewed, published literature. Based on this literature scan we focus on autocorrelation and illustrate the recommended steps using ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models) methods via analysis of a time-series of canine parvovirus (CPV) events in a pet dog population in Australia, 2009 to 2015. We conclude by identifying the barriers to the application of ARIMA methods in veterinary epidemiology and suggest some possible solutions. In the literature scan the selected 37 studies focused mostly on infectious and parasitic diseases, predominantly for analytical, rather than descriptive or predictive, purposes. Trends and seasonality were investigated, and autocorrelation analyzed, in most studies, most commonly using R software. An approach to analyzing autocorrelation using ARIMA methods was then illustrated using a time-series (week and month units) of CPV events in a pet dog population in Australia, reported to a national companion animal disease surveillance system. This time-series was derived by summing veterinarian reports of confirmed CPV diagnoses. We present data analysis output generated via the R statistical environment, and make this code available for the reader to apply to this or other time-series datasets. We also illustrate prediction of CPV events by rainfall as a covariate. Time-series analysis using ARIMA methods to understand and explore autocorrelation appears to be relatively uncommon in veterinary epidemiology. Some of the reasons might include limited availability of data of sufficient time unit length, lack of familiarity with analytical methods and available software, and how to best use the information generated. We recommend that wherever feasible, such time-series data be made available both for analysis and for methods development.
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Project description:BackgroundRhythmic oscillatory activity is widely observed during a variety of subject behaviors and is believed to play a central role in information processing and control. A classic example of rhythmic activity is alpha spindles, which consist of short (0.5-2 s) bursts of high frequency alpha activity. Recent research has shown that alpha spindles in the parietal/occipital area are statistically related to fatigue and drowsiness. These spindles constitute sharp changes in the underlying statistical properties of the signal. Our hypothesis is that change point detection models can be used to identify the onset and duration of spindles in EEG. In this work we develop an algorithm that accurately identifies sudden bursts of narrowband oscillatory activity in EEG using techniques derived from change point analysis. Our motivating example is detection of alpha spindles in the parietal/occipital areas of the brain. Our goal is to develop an algorithm that can be applied to any type of rhythmic oscillatory activity of interest for accurate online detection.MethodsIn this work we propose modeling the alpha band EEG time series using discounted autoregressive (DAR) modeling. The DAR model uses a discounting rate to weigh points measured further in the past less heavily than points more recently observed. This model is used together with predictive loss scoring to identify periods of EEG data that are statistically significant.ResultsOur algorithm accurately captures changes in the statistical properties of the alpha frequency band. These statistical changes are highly correlated with alpha spindle occurrences and form a reliable measure for detecting alpha spindles in EEG. We achieve approximately 95% accuracy in detecting alpha spindles, with timing precision to within approximately 150 ms, for two datasets from an experiment of prolonged simulated driving, as well as in simulated EEG. Sensitivity and specificity values are above 0.9, and in many cases are above 0.95, for our analysis.ConclusionModeling the alpha band EEG using discounted AR models provides an efficient method for detecting oscillatory alpha activity in EEG. The method is based on statistical principles and can generally be applied to detect rhythmic activity in any frequency band or brain region.
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Project description:Vector-borne diseases affect more than 1 billion people a year worldwide, causing more than 1 million deaths, and cost hundreds of billions of dollars in societal costs. Mosquitoes are the most common vectors responsible for transmitting a variety of arboviruses. Dengue fever (DENF) has been responsible for nearly 400 million infections annually. Dengue fever is primarily transmitted by female Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes. Because both Aedes species are peri-domestic and container-breeding mosquitoes, dengue surveillance should begin at the local level-where a variety of local factors may increase the risk of transmission. Dengue has been endemic in Colombia for decades and is notably hyperendemic in the city of Cali. For this study, we use weekly cases of DENF in Cali, Colombia, from 2015 to 2016 and develop space-time conditional autoregressive models to quantify how DENF risk is influenced by socioeconomic, environmental, and accessibility risk factors, and lagged weather variables. Our models identify high-risk neighborhoods for DENF throughout Cali. Statistical inference is drawn under Bayesian paradigm using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. The results provide detailed insight about the spatial heterogeneity of DENF risk and the associated risk factors (such as weather, proximity to Aedes habitats, and socioeconomic classification) at a fine level, informing public health officials to motivate at-risk neighborhoods to take an active role in vector surveillance and control, and improving educational and surveillance resources throughout the city of Cali.
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Project description:BACKGROUND: Time-course gene expression data such as yeast cell cycle data may be periodically expressed. To cluster such data, currently used Fourier series approximations of periodic gene expressions have been found not to be sufficiently adequate to model the complexity of the time-course data, partly due to their ignoring the dependence between the expression measurements over time and the correlation among gene expression profiles. We further investigate the advantages and limitations of available models in the literature and propose a new mixture model with autoregressive random effects of the first order for the clustering of time-course gene-expression profiles. Some simulations and real examples are given to demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed models. RESULTS: We illustrate the applicability of our new model using synthetic and real time-course datasets. We show that our model outperforms existing models to provide more reliable and robust clustering of time-course data. Our model provides superior results when genetic profiles are correlated. It also gives comparable results when the correlation between the gene profiles is weak. In the applications to real time-course data, relevant clusters of coregulated genes are obtained, which are supported by gene-function annotation databases. CONCLUSIONS: Our new model under our extension of the EMMIX-WIRE procedure is more reliable and robust for clustering time-course data because it adopts a random effects model that allows for the correlation among observations at different time points. It postulates gene-specific random effects with an autocorrelation variance structure that models coregulation within the clusters. The developed R package is flexible in its specification of the random effects through user-input parameters that enables improved modelling and consequent clustering of time-course data.
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Project description:BackgroundIn the analysis of effects by cell treatment such as drug dosing, identifying changes on gene network structures between normal and treated cells is a key task. A possible way for identifying the changes is to compare structures of networks estimated from data on normal and treated cells separately. However, this approach usually fails to estimate accurate gene networks due to the limited length of time series data and measurement noise. Thus, approaches that identify changes on regulations by using time series data on both conditions in an efficient manner are demanded.MethodsWe propose a new statistical approach that is based on the state space representation of the vector autoregressive model and estimates gene networks on two different conditions in order to identify changes on regulations between the conditions. In the mathematical model of our approach, hidden binary variables are newly introduced to indicate the presence of regulations on each condition. The use of the hidden binary variables enables an efficient data usage; data on both conditions are used for commonly existing regulations, while for condition specific regulations corresponding data are only applied. Also, the similarity of networks on two conditions is automatically considered from the design of the potential function for the hidden binary variables. For the estimation of the hidden binary variables, we derive a new variational annealing method that searches the configuration of the binary variables maximizing the marginal likelihood.ResultsFor the performance evaluation, we use time series data from two topologically similar synthetic networks, and confirm that our proposed approach estimates commonly existing regulations as well as changes on regulations with higher coverage and precision than other existing approaches in almost all the experimental settings. For a real data application, our proposed approach is applied to time series data from normal Human lung cells and Human lung cells treated by stimulating EGF-receptors and dosing an anticancer drug termed Gefitinib. In the treated lung cells, a cancer cell condition is simulated by the stimulation of EGF-receptors, but the effect would be counteracted due to the selective inhibition of EGF-receptors by Gefitinib. However, gene expression profiles are actually different between the conditions, and the genes related to the identified changes are considered as possible off-targets of Gefitinib.ConclusionsFrom the synthetically generated time series data, our proposed approach can identify changes on regulations more accurately than existing methods. By applying the proposed approach to the time series data on normal and treated Human lung cells, candidates of off-target genes of Gefitinib are found. According to the published clinical information, one of the genes can be related to a factor of interstitial pneumonia, which is known as a side effect of Gefitinib.
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Project description:N-mixture models usually rely on a meta-population design, in which repeated counts of individuals in multiple sampling locations are obtained over time. The time-for-space substitution (TSS) in N-mixture models allows to estimate population abundance and trend of a single population, without spatial replication. This application could be of great interest in ecological studies and conservation programs; however, its reliability has only been evaluated on a single case study. Here we perform a simulation-based evaluation of this particular application of N-mixture modelling. We generated count data, under 144 simulated scenarios, from a single population surveyed several times per year and subject to different dynamics. We compared simulated abundance and trend values with TSS estimates. TSS estimates are overall in good agreement with real abundance. Trend and abundance estimation is mainly affected by detection probability and population size. After evaluating the reliability of TSS, both against real world data, and simulations, we suggest that this particular application of N-mixture model could be reliable for monitoring abundance in single populations of rare or difficult to study species, in particular in cases of species with very narrow geographic ranges, or known only for few localities.
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Project description:Causal inference in multivariate time series is challenging because the sampling rate may not be as fast as the time scale of the causal interactions, so the observed series is a subsampled version of the desired series. Furthermore, series may be observed at different sampling rates, yielding mixed-frequency series. To determine instantaneous and lagged effects between series at the causal scale, we take a model-based approach that relies on structural vector autoregressive models. We present a unifying framework for parameter identifiability and estimation under subsampling and mixed frequencies when the noise, or shocks, is non-Gaussian. By studying the structural case, we develop identifiability and estimation methods for the causal structure of lagged and instantaneous effects at the desired time scale. We further derive an exact expectation-maximization algorithm for inference in both subsampled and mixed-frequency settings. We validate our approach in simulated scenarios and on a climate and an econometric dataset.
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Project description:ObjectivesProstate cancer is the second most common cause of cancer-related death in males after lung cancer, imposing a significant burden on the healthcare system in Australia. We propose the use of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models in conjunction with population forecasts to provide for robust annual projections of prostate cancer.DesignData on the incidence and mortality from prostate cancer was obtained from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. We formulated several ARIMA models with different autocorrelation terms and chose one which provided for an accurate fit of the data based on the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). We also assessed the model for external validity. A similar process was used to model age-standardised incidence and mortality rate for prostate cancer in Australia during the same time period.ResultsThe annual number of prostate cancer cases diagnosed in Australia increased from 3606 in 1982 to 20?065 in 2012. There were two peaks observed around 1994 and 2009. Among the various models evaluated, we found that the model with an autoregressive term of 1 (coefficient=0.45, p=0.028) as well as differencing the series provided the best fit, with a MAPE of 5.2%. External validation showed a good MAPE of 5.8% as well. We project prostate cancer incident cases in 2022 to rise to 25?283 cases (95%?CI: 23?233 to 27 333).ConclusionOur study has accurately characterised the trend of prostate cancer incidence and mortality in Australia, and this information will prove useful for resource planning and manpower allocation.
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Project description:OBJECTIVES:Haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a serious threat to public health in China, accounting for almost 90% cases reported globally. Infectious disease prediction may help in disease prevention despite some uncontrollable influence factors. This study conducted a comparison between a hybrid model and two single models in forecasting the monthly incidence of HFRS in China. DESIGN:Time-series study. SETTING:The People's Republic of China. METHODS:Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, generalised regression neural network (GRNN) model and hybrid ARIMA-GRNN model were constructed by R V.3.4.3 software. The monthly reported incidence of HFRS from January 2011 to May 2018 were adopted to evaluate models' performance. Root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were adopted to evaluate these models' effectiveness. Spatial stratified heterogeneity of the time series was tested by month and another GRNN model was built with a new series. RESULTS:The monthly incidence of HFRS in the past several years showed a slight downtrend and obvious seasonal variation. A total of four plausible ARIMA models were built and ARIMA(2,1,1) (2,1,1)12 model was selected as the optimal model in HFRS fitting. The smooth factors of the basic GRNN model and the hybrid model were 0.027 and 0.043, respectively. The single ARIMA model was the best in fitting part (MAPE=9.1154, MAE=89.0302, RMSE=138.8356) while the hybrid model was the best in prediction (MAPE=17.8335, MAE=152.3013, RMSE=196.4682). GRNN model was revised by building model with new series and the forecasting performance of revised model (MAPE=17.6095, MAE=163.8000, RMSE=169.4751) was better than original GRNN model (MAPE=19.2029, MAE=177.0356, RMSE=202.1684). CONCLUSIONS:The hybrid ARIMA-GRNN model was better than single ARIMA and basic GRNN model in forecasting monthly incidence of HFRS in China. It could be considered as a decision-making tool in HFRS prevention and control.
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