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Global climate disruption and regional climate shelters after the Toba supereruption.

ABSTRACT: The Toba eruption ∼74,000 y ago was the largest volcanic eruption since the start of the Pleistocene and represents an important test case for understanding the effects of large explosive eruptions on climate and ecosystems. However, the magnitude and repercussions of climatic changes driven by the eruption are strongly debated. High-resolution paleoclimate and archaeological records from Africa find little evidence for the disruption of climate or human activity in the wake of the eruption in contrast with a controversial link with a bottleneck in human evolution and climate model simulations predicting strong volcanic cooling for up to a decade after a Toba-scale eruption. Here, we use a large ensemble of high-resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM1.3) simulations to reconcile climate model predictions with paleoclimate records, accounting for uncertainties in the magnitude of Toba sulfur emissions with high and low emission scenarios. We find a near-zero probability of annual mean surface temperature anomalies exceeding 4 °C in most of Africa in contrast with near 100% probabilities of cooling this severe in Asia and North America for the high sulfur emission case. The likelihood of strong decreases in precipitation is low in most of Africa. Therefore, even Toba sulfur release at the upper range of plausible estimates remains consistent with the muted response in Africa indicated by paleoclimate proxies. Our results provide a probabilistic view of the uneven patterns of volcanic climate disruption during a crucial interval in human evolution, with implications for understanding the range of environmental impacts from past and future supereruptions.

SUBMITTER: Black BA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8307270 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Dogs are relinquished to animal shelters for animal-related or guardian-related reasons. Understanding what drives relinquishment patterns is essential for informing intervention opportunities to keep animals with their guardians. Whereas, overall reasons for relinquishment in a given shelter system have been well explored, analysis of human and animal predictors of relinquishing for a specific reason has not been previously attempted. We used characteristics of relinquishment including year, population of the relinquishing guardian's region, health status of the dog, breed, age group, weight, and sex to predict reasons for dog relinquishment to British Columbia (BC) Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (SPCA) shelters across BC between 2008 and 2019 (n = 32,081). Relinquishment trends for puppies and adult dogs were also viewed and described. From 2008-2019, the proportion of dogs relinquished relative to total intake remained consistent (range: 31-35%). Primary reasons reported by guardians were having too many dogs (19%), housing issues (17%), personal issues (15%), financial issues (10%), dog behavior (10%), and guardian health (8%). Over years, an increasing proportion of dogs were relinquished for the reason "too many" (OR = 1.16, 95% CI, 1.10-1.23, p < 0.001) and "behavior" (OR = 1.34, 95% CI, 1.26-1.43, p < 0.001), while a decreasing proportion were relinquished due to financial problems (OR = 0.94, 95% CI, 0.88-1.00, p = 0.047). Being a puppy, mixed breed, small, and from a small or medium population center predicted the reason "too many." Being a senior, Healthy, or from a medium or large population center predicted the reason "housing issues." Being a non-puppy, Healthy dog in a large population center predicted the reason "personal issues." Being a puppy, non-Healthy, female, and from a large population center predicted the reason "financial issues." Being a larger young adult or adult and Healthy predicted the reason "dog behavior." Being an adult or senior small dog from a small population center predicted the reason "guardian health." Particularly promising region-specific intervention opportunities include efforts to prevent too many animals in small population centers, improvement of pet-inclusive housing in large population centers, and providing animal care support in large population centers. Accessible veterinary services, including low-cost or subsidized care, likely benefit dog retention across BC.

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Global climate disruption and regional climate shelters after the Toba supereruption.

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