An automated computational approach to kinetic model discrimination and parameter estimation.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Taylor CJ
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8315272 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundDynamic modelling is a core element in the systems biology approach to understanding complex biosystems. Here, we consider the problem of parameter estimation in models of biological oscillators described by deterministic nonlinear differential equations. These problems can be extremely challenging due to several common pitfalls: (i) a lack of prior knowledge about parameters (i.e. massive search spaces), (ii) convergence to local optima (due to multimodality of the cost function), (iii) overfitting (fitting the noise instead of the signal) and (iv) a lack of identifiability. As a consequence, the use of standard estimation methods (such as gradient-based local ones) will often result in wrong solutions. Overfitting can be particularly problematic, since it produces very good calibrations, giving the impression of an excellent result. However, overfitted models exhibit poor predictive power. Here, we present a novel automated approach to overcome these pitfalls. Its workflow makes use of two sequential optimisation steps incorporating three key algorithms: (1) sampling strategies to systematically tighten the parameter bounds reducing the search space, (2) efficient global optimisation to avoid convergence to local solutions, (3) an advanced regularisation technique to fight overfitting. In addition, this workflow incorporates tests for structural and practical identifiability.ResultsWe successfully evaluate this novel approach considering four difficult case studies regarding the calibration of well-known biological oscillators (Goodwin, FitzHugh-Nagumo, Repressilator and a metabolic oscillator). In contrast, we show how local gradient-based approaches, even if used in multi-start fashion, are unable to avoid the above-mentioned pitfalls.ConclusionsOur approach results in more efficient estimations (thanks to the bounding strategy) which are able to escape convergence to local optima (thanks to the global optimisation approach). Further, the use of regularisation allows us to avoid overfitting, resulting in more generalisable calibrated models (i.e. models with greater predictive power).
| S-EPMC6377730 | biostudies-literature
Project description:A central challenge in computational modeling of biological systems is the determination of the model parameters. Typically, only a fraction of the parameters (such as kinetic rate constants) are experimentally measured, while the rest are often fitted. The fitting process is usually based on experimental time course measurements of observables, which are used to assign parameter values that minimize some measure of the error between these measurements and the corresponding model prediction. The measurements, which can come from immunoblotting assays, fluorescent markers, etc., tend to be very noisy and taken at a limited number of time points. In this work we present a new approach to the problem of parameter selection of biological models. We show how one can use a dynamic recursive estimator, known as extended Kalman filter, to arrive at estimates of the model parameters. The proposed method follows. First, we use a variation of the Kalman filter that is particularly well suited to biological applications to obtain a first guess for the unknown parameters. Secondly, we employ an a posteriori identifiability test to check the reliability of the estimates. Finally, we solve an optimization problem to refine the first guess in case it should not be accurate enough. The final estimates are guaranteed to be statistically consistent with the measurements. Furthermore, we show how the same tools can be used to discriminate among alternate models of the same biological process. We demonstrate these ideas by applying our methods to two examples, namely a model of the heat shock response in E. coli, and a model of a synthetic gene regulation system. The methods presented are quite general and may be applied to a wide class of biological systems where noisy measurements are used for parameter estimation or model selection.
| S-EPMC2832681 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundModel development is a key task in systems biology, which typically starts from an initial model candidate and, involving an iterative cycle of hypotheses-driven model modifications, leads to new experimentation and subsequent model identification steps. The final product of this cycle is a satisfactory refined model of the biological phenomena under study. During such iterative model development, researchers frequently propose a set of model candidates from which the best alternative must be selected. Here we consider this problem of model selection and formulate it as a simultaneous model selection and parameter identification problem. More precisely, we consider a general mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) formulation for model selection and identification, with emphasis on dynamic models consisting of sets of either ODEs (ordinary differential equations) or DAEs (differential algebraic equations).ResultsWe solved the MINLP formulation for model selection and identification using an algorithm based on Scatter Search (SS). We illustrate the capabilities and efficiency of the proposed strategy with a case study considering the KdpD/KdpE system regulating potassium homeostasis in Escherichia coli. The proposed approach resulted in a final model that presents a better fit to the in silico generated experimental data.ConclusionsThe presented MINLP-based optimization approach for nested-model selection and identification is a powerful methodology for model development in systems biology. This strategy can be used to perform model selection and parameter estimation in one single step, thus greatly reducing the number of experiments and computations of traditional modeling approaches.
| S-EPMC3765209 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAn efficient and reliable parameter estimation method is essential for the creation of biological models using ordinary differential equation (ODE). Most of the existing estimation methods involve finding the global minimum of data fitting residuals over the entire parameter space simultaneously. Unfortunately, the associated computational requirement often becomes prohibitively high due to the large number of parameters and the lack of complete parameter identifiability (i.e. not all parameters can be uniquely identified).ResultsIn this work, an incremental approach was applied to the parameter estimation of ODE models from concentration time profiles. Particularly, the method was developed to address a commonly encountered circumstance in the modeling of metabolic networks, where the number of metabolic fluxes (reaction rates) exceeds that of metabolites (chemical species). Here, the minimization of model residuals was performed over a subset of the parameter space that is associated with the degrees of freedom in the dynamic flux estimation from the concentration time-slopes. The efficacy of this method was demonstrated using two generalized mass action (GMA) models, where the method significantly outperformed single-step estimations. In addition, an extension of the estimation method to handle missing data is also presented.ConclusionsThe proposed incremental estimation method is able to tackle the issue on the lack of complete parameter identifiability and to significantly reduce the computational efforts in estimating model parameters, which will facilitate kinetic modeling of genome-scale cellular metabolism in the future.
| S-EPMC3568022 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Methods for efficient and accurate prediction of RNA structure are increasingly valuable, given the current rapid advances in understanding the diverse functions of RNA molecules in the cell. To enhance the accuracy of secondary structure predictions, we developed and refined optimization techniques for the estimation of energy parameters. We build on two previous approaches to RNA free-energy parameter estimation: (1) the Constraint Generation (CG) method, which iteratively generates constraints that enforce known structures to have energies lower than other structures for the same molecule; and (2) the Boltzmann Likelihood (BL) method, which infers a set of RNA free-energy parameters that maximize the conditional likelihood of a set of reference RNA structures. Here, we extend these approaches in two main ways: We propose (1) a max-margin extension of CG, and (2) a novel linear Gaussian Bayesian network that models feature relationships, which effectively makes use of sparse data by sharing statistical strength between parameters. We obtain significant improvements in the accuracy of RNA minimum free-energy pseudoknot-free secondary structure prediction when measured on a comprehensive set of 2518 RNA molecules with reference structures. Our parameters can be used in conjunction with software that predicts RNA secondary structures, RNA hybridization, or ensembles of structures. Our data, software, results, and parameter sets in various formats are freely available at http://www.cs.ubc.ca/labs/beta/Projects/RNA-Params.
| S-EPMC2995392 | biostudies-literature
Project description:MOTIVATION:Kinetic models contain unknown parameters that are estimated by optimizing the fit to experimental data. This task can be computationally challenging due to the presence of local optima and ill-conditioning. While a variety of optimization methods have been suggested to surmount these issues, it is difficult to choose the best one for a given problem a priori. A systematic comparison of parameter estimation methods for problems with tens to hundreds of optimization variables is currently missing, and smaller studies provided contradictory findings. RESULTS:We use a collection of benchmarks to evaluate the performance of two families of optimization methods: (i) multi-starts of deterministic local searches and (ii) stochastic global optimization metaheuristics; the latter may be combined with deterministic local searches, leading to hybrid methods. A fair comparison is ensured through a collaborative evaluation and a consideration of multiple performance metrics. We discuss possible evaluation criteria to assess the trade-off between computational efficiency and robustness. Our results show that, thanks to recent advances in the calculation of parametric sensitivities, a multi-start of gradient-based local methods is often a successful strategy, but a better performance can be obtained with a hybrid metaheuristic. The best performer combines a global scatter search metaheuristic with an interior point local method, provided with gradients estimated with adjoint-based sensitivities. We provide an implementation of this method to render it available to the scientific community. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION:The code to reproduce the results is provided as Supplementary Material and is available at Zenodo https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1304034. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.
| S-EPMC6394396 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Dealing with a system of first-order reactions is a recurrent issue in chemometrics, especially in the analysis of data obtained by spectroscopic methods applied on complex biological systems. We argue that global multiexponential fitting, the still common way to solve such problems, has serious weaknesses compared to contemporary methods of sparse modeling. Combining the advantages of group lasso and elastic net-the statistical methods proven to be very powerful in other areas-we created an optimization problem tunable from very sparse to very dense distribution over a large pre-defined grid of time constants, fitting both simulated and experimental multiwavelength spectroscopic data with high computational efficiency. We found that the optimal values of the tuning hyperparameters can be selected by a machine-learning algorithm based on a Bayesian optimization procedure, utilizing widely used or novel versions of cross-validation. The derived algorithm accurately recovered the true sparse kinetic parameters of an extremely complex simulated model of the bacteriorhodopsin photocycle, as well as the wide peak of hypothetical distributed kinetics in the presence of different noise levels. It also performed well in the analysis of the ultrafast experimental fluorescence kinetics data detected on the coenzyme FAD in a very wide logarithmic time window. We conclude that the primary application of the presented algorithms-implemented in available software-covers a wide area of studies on light-induced physical, chemical, and biological processes carried out with different spectroscopic methods. The demand for this kind of analysis is expected to soar due to the emerging ultrafast multidimensional infrared and electronic spectroscopic techniques that provide very large and complex datasets. In addition, simulations based on our methods could help in designing the technical parameters of future experiments for the verification of particular hypothetical models.
| S-EPMC8352076 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Quantitative kinetic parameters derived from dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) data are dependent on signal measurement quality and choice of pharmacokinetic model. However, the fundamental optimization analysis method is equally important and its impact on pharmacokinetic parameters has been mostly overlooked. We examine the effects of those choices on accuracy and performance of parameter estimation using both computer processing unit and graphical processing unit (GPU) numerical optimization implementations and evaluate the improvements offered by a novel optimization approach. A test framework was developed where experimentally derived population-average arterial input function and randomly sampled parameter sets {Ktrans , Kep , Vb , ?} were used to generate known tissue curves. Five numerical optimization algorithms were evaluated: sequential quadratic programming, downhill simplex (Nelder-Mead), pattern search, simulated annealing, and differential evolution. This was combined with various objective function implementation details: delay approximation, discretization and varying sampling rates. Then, impact of noise and CPU/GPU implementation was tested for speed and accuracy. Finally, the optimal method was compared to conventional implementation as applied to clinical DCE computed tomography. Nelder-Mead, differential evolution and sequential quadratic programming produced good results on clean and noisy input data outperforming simulated annealing and pattern search in terms of speed and accuracy in the respective order of 10-8%, 10-7%, and ×10-6%). A novel approach for DCE numerical optimization (infinite impulse response with fractional delay approximation) was implemented on GPU for speed increase of at least 2 orders of magnitude. Applied to clinical data, the magnitude of overall parameter error was <10%.
| S-EPMC6403032 | biostudies-literature
Project description:MotivationTime-series measurements of metabolite concentration have become increasingly more common, providing data for building kinetic models of metabolic networks using ordinary differential equations (ODEs). In practice, however, such time-course data are usually incomplete and noisy, and the estimation of kinetic parameters from these data is challenging. Practical limitations due to data and computational aspects, such as solving stiff ODEs and finding global optimal solution to the estimation problem, give motivations to develop a new estimation procedure that can circumvent some of these constraints.ResultsIn this work, an incremental and iterative parameter estimation method is proposed that combines and iterates between two estimation phases. One phase involves a decoupling method, in which a subset of model parameters that are associated with measured metabolites, are estimated using the minimization of slope errors. Another phase follows, in which the ODE model is solved one equation at a time and the remaining model parameters are obtained by minimizing concentration errors. The performance of this two-phase method was tested on a generic branched metabolic pathway and the glycolytic pathway of Lactococcus lactis. The results showed that the method is efficient in getting accurate parameter estimates, even when some information is missing.
| S-EPMC6281308 | biostudies-literature
Project description:PurposeTranslocator protein 18-kDa (TSPO) imaging with positron emission tomography (PET) is widely used in research studies of brain diseases that have a neuro-immune component. Quantification of TSPO PET images, however, is associated with several challenges, such as the lack of a reference region, a genetic polymorphism affecting the affinity of the ligand for TSPO, and a strong TSPO signal in the endothelium of the brain vessels. These challenges have created an ongoing debate in the field about which type of quantification is most useful and whether there is an appropriate simplified model.MethodsThis review focuses on the quantification of TSPO radioligands in the human brain. The various methods of quantification are summarized, including the gold standard of compartmental modeling with metabolite-corrected input function as well as various alternative models and non-invasive approaches. Their advantages and drawbacks are critically assessed.Results and conclusionsResearchers employing quantification methods for TSPO should understand the advantages and limitations associated with each method. Suggestions are given to help researchers choose between these viable alternative methods.
| S-EPMC8712306 | biostudies-literature