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Effect of Serum Albumin Changes on Mortality in Patients with Peritoneal Dialysis: A Joint Modeling Approach and Personalized Dynamic Risk Predictions.

ABSTRACT: Peritoneal dialysis (PD) is a frequently used and growing therapy for end-stage renal diseases (ESRD). Survival analysis of PD patients is an ongoing research topic in the field of nephrology. Several biochemical parameters (e.g., serum albumin, creatinine, and blood urea nitrogen) are measured repeatedly in the follow-up period; however, baseline or averaged values are primarily associated with mortality. Although this strategy is not incorrect, it leads to information loss, resulting in erroneous conclusions and biased estimates. This retrospective study used the trajectory of common renal function indexes in PD patients and mainly investigated the association between serum albumin change and mortality. Furthermore, we considered patient-specific variability in serum albumin change and obtained personalized dynamic risk predictions for selected patients at different follow-up thresholds to investigate the effect of serum albumin trajectories on patient-specific mortality. We included 417 patients from the Erciyes University Nephrology Department whose data were retrospectively collected using medical records. A joint modeling approach for longitudinal and survival data was used to investigate the relationship between serum albumin trajectory and mortality of PD patients. Results showed that averaged serum albumin levels were not associated with mortality. However, serum albumin change was significantly and inversely associated with mortality (HR: 2.43, 95% CI: 1.48 to 4.16). Risk of death was positively associated with peritonitis rate, hemodialysis history, and the total number of comorbid and renal diseases with hazard ratios 1.74, 3.21, and 1.41. There was also significant variability between patients. The personalized risk predictions showed that overall survival estimates were not representative for all patients. Using the patient-specific trajectories provided better survival predictions within the follow-up period as more data become available in serum albumin levels. In conclusion, using the trajectory of risk predictors via an appropriate statistical method provided better predictive accuracy and prevented biased findings. We also showed that personalized risk predictions were much informative than overall estimations in the presence of significant patient variability. Furthermore, personalized estimations may play an essential role in monitoring and managing patients during the follow-up period.

SUBMITTER: Basol M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8319732 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Serum albumin level predicts mortality in dialysis patients and is used to assess their health status and the quality of delivered care. Whether the threshold level of serum albumin at which mortality risk increases in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients is the same as for hemodialysis (HD) patients has not been studied.Observational cohort study of dialysis patients undertaken to determine the survival-predictability of serum albumin level in PD patients and compare it with that in HD patients.130,052 dialysis patients (PD, 12,171; HD, 117,851) who received treatment in any of the 580 dialysis units owned by DaVita Inc between July 1, 2001, through June 30, 2006, followed up through June 30, 2007.Baseline and time-averaged serum albumin level (assayed using bromcresol green) and change in serum albumin level over 6 months.All-cause, cardiovascular, and infection-related mortality.PD patients with baseline serum albumin level <3.0 g/dL had a more than 3-fold higher adjusted risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and 3.4-fold higher risk of infection-related mortality (reference group: serum albumin, 4.00-4.19 g/dL). Adjusted all-cause mortality was significantly lower in PD patients with a ?0.3-g/dL increase in serum albumin level over 6 months and significantly higher in those for whom it decreased by ?0.2 g/dL (reference group: serum albumin change, +0.1 to -0.1 g/dL). A significant increase in death risk was evident for HD patients with serum albumin level <4.0 g/dL, but at <3.8 g/dL for PD patients. For each albumin category, overall death risk for PD patients was lower than for HD patients (reference group: HD patients with serum albumin of 4.00-4.19 g/dL).Study can identify associations only without attribution of causality and residual confounding cannot be excluded.Serum albumin predicts all-cause, cardiovascular, and infection-related mortality in both PD and HD patients. However, the threshold at which risk of death increases varies by dialysis modality, and this difference should be considered by agencies or organizations that set quality standards.

Project description:BackgroundPeritoneal dialysis (PD) is an easily implementable dialysis modality in end-stage renal disease (ESRD). PD may improve access to renal replacement therapy in low- and middle-income countries; however, these countries have a higher prevalence of protein-energy wasting in patients and poorer socioeconomic conditions. We evaluated the effects of HIV infection on serum albumin levels in ESRD patients starting continuous ambulatory PD (CAPD) and mortality outcomes.MethodsWe conducted a single-center prospective cohort study of consecutive incident CAPD patients recruited from two hospitals in Durban, South Africa, from September 2012 to February 2015. Seventy HIV-negative and 70 HIV-positive ESRD patients were followed monthly for serum albumin levels and mortality events during the first 18 months of CAPD therapy.ResultsThe HIV-positive cohort recorded 28 deaths (40%) among patients with a functional CAPD catheter at 18 months and 13 deaths (18.6%) in the HIV-negative cohort (p = 0.005). The mean serum albumin levels were lower in the HIV-positive cohort than in the HIV-negative cohort during the 18-month follow-up. The mean difference in serum albumin levels between the two cohorts was 4.24 g/L (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.02-6.46, p<0.001) at baseline and 3.99 g/L (95% CI 1.19-6.79, p = 0.006) at 18 months. HIV-positive status (adjusted regression coefficient -2.84, CI -5.00--0.67, p = 0.011), diabetes (adjusted coefficient -2.85; CI, -5.58--0.12; p = 0.041), and serum C-reactive protein and blood hemoglobin levels were independent predictors of serum albumin levels on multivariable linear regression. Baseline serum albumin <25 g/L (subdistribution-hazard ratio [SHR] 13.06, 95% CI 3.09-55.14, p<0.001) and CD4+ cell count <200 cells/?L (SHR 3.2, CI 1.38-7.45, p = 0.007) were independent predictors of mortality in our competing risk model.ConclusionsHIV infection can adversely affect serum albumin levels in ESRD patients managed with CAPD, while low baseline serum albumin levels and impaired immunity reliably predict mortality.

Project description:BackgroundResults concerning the association between peritoneal dialysis-related peritonitis and mortality in peritoneal dialysis patients are inconclusive, with one potential reason being that the time-dependent effect of peritonitis has rarely been considered in previous studies. This study aimed to evaluate whether peritonitis has a negative impact on mortality in a large cohort of peritoneal dialysis patients. We also assessed the changing impact of peritonitis on patient mortality with respect to duration of follow-up.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study included incident patients who started peritoneal dialysis from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2011. Episodes of peritonitis were recorded at the time of onset, and peritonitis was parameterized as a time-dependent variable for analysis. We used the Cox regression model to assess whether peritonitis has a negative impact on mortality.ResultsA total of 1321 patients were included. The mean age was 48.1 ± 15.3 years, 41.3% were female, and 23.5% with diabetes mellitus. The median (interquartile) follow-up time was 34 (21-48) months. After adjusting for confounders, peritonitis was independently associated with 95% increased risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 1.95; 95% confidence interval: 1.46-2.60), 90% increased risk of cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratio, 1.90; 95% confidence interval: 1.28-2.81) and near 4-fold increased risk of infection-related mortality (hazard ratio, 4.94; 95% confidence interval: 2.47-9.86). Further analyses showed that peritonitis was not significantly associated with mortality within 2 years of peritoneal dialysis initiation, but strongly influenced mortality in patients dialysed longer than 2 years.ConclusionsPeritonitis was independently associated with higher risk of all-cause, cardiovascular and infection-related mortality in peritoneal dialysis patients, and its impact on mortality was more significant in patients with longer peritoneal dialysis duration.

Project description:BackgroundSerum phosphorus (SP) level is closely associated with overall mortality and cardiovascular events, while the role of SP controlled duration is not fully recognized. Here, we conducted a retrospective cohort study in our department to identify the relationship of SP controlled duration with clinical outcomes in patients undergoing peritoneal dialysis (PD).MethodsPD patients in our center from January 1, 2009, to June 30, 2019, were followed up at 2-month (the first year) or 5-month (the next follow-up period) intervals, and until death, until PD withdrawal, or until June 30, 2019. Data at each follow-up point were collected from their medical records. SP levels, changed degree of SP over baseline, and SP controlled duration were analyzed with overall mortality, PD withdrawal (including death, transferred to hemodialysis, and received renal transplantation), and combined endpoint (including death, acute heart failure, cardiovascular event, and stroke).ResultsA total of 530 patients entered the analysis. Of them, 456 (86.0%) had hyperphosphatemia before dialysis, and the SP levels decreased soon after dialysis. The degree of SP change over baseline was the maximum at the 3rd month after dialysis (-31.0%), and lower degree was associated with higher overall mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.012; 95% CI, 1.004-1.020; p = 0.003). The median SP controlled duration was 13 (5-28) months, and longer duration was significantly associated with lower overall mortality (HR, 0.968; 95% CI, 0.956-0.981; p < 0.001). After categorization, duration more than 12 months greatly improved overall mortality with a HR of 0.197 (0.082-0.458; p < 0.001 vs. SP never controlled group) and 0.329 (0.150-0.724; p = 0.006 vs. duration <12 months group). Longer SP controlled duration also improved PD withdrawal and combined endpoint.ConclusionsIn summary, both degree and duration of SP control were tightly associated with overall mortality. We should control SP levels as early, as possible, and as long as we could.

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Effect of Serum Albumin Changes on Mortality in Patients with Peritoneal Dialysis: A Joint Modeling Approach and Personalized Dynamic Risk Predictions.

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