Predictors of plasma leakage among dengue patients in Thailand: A plasma-leak score analysis.
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ABSTRACT: Delayed plasma leakage recognition could lead to improper fluid administration resulting in dengue shock syndrome, subsequently, multi-organ failure, and death. This prospective observational study was conducted in Bangkok, Thailand, between March 2018 and February 2020 to determine predictors of plasma leakage and develop a plasma leakage predictive score among dengue patients aged ≥15 years. Of 667 confirmed dengue patients, 318 (47.7%) developed plasma leakage, and 349 (52.3%) had no plasma leakage. Multivariate analysis showed three independent factors associated with plasma leakage, including body mass index ≥25.0 kg/m2 (odds ratio [OR] = 1.784; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.040-3.057; P = 0.035), platelet count <100,000/mm3 on fever days 3 to 4 (OR = 2.151; 95% CI = 1.269-3.647; P = 0.004), and aspartate aminotransferase or alanine aminotransferase ≥100 U/l on fever days 3 to 4 (OR = 2.189; 95% CI = 1.231-3.891; P = 0.008). Because these three parameters had evidence of equality, each independent factor was weighted to give a score of 1 with a total plasma-leak score of 3. Higher scores were associated with increased plasma leakage occurrence, with ORs of 2.017 (95% CI = 1.052-3.869; P = 0.035) for score 1, 6.158 (95% CI = 2.914-13.015; P <0.001) for score 2, and 6.300 (95% CI = 2.419-16.407; P <0.001) for score 3. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curves for predicting plasma leakage was good (0.677 [95% CI = 0.616-0.739]). Patients with a plasma-leak score ≥1 had high sensitivity (88.8%), and those with a plasma-leak score of 3 had high specificity (93.4%) for plasma leakage occurrence. This simple and easily accessible clinical score might help physicians provide early and timely appropriate clinical dengue management in endemic areas.
Project description:BackgroundEndothelial hyper-permeability with plasma leakage and thrombocytopenia are predominant features of severe dengue virus infection. It is well established that heparanase, the endothelial glycocalyx degrading enzyme, plays a major role in various diseases with vascular leakage. It is yet to be elucidated whether heparanase activity plays a major role in dengue-associated plasma leakage. Moreover, the major source of heparanase secretion and activation in dengue remains elusive. Since a relatively high amount of heparanase is stored in platelets, we postulate that heparanase released by activated platelets contributes to the increased plasma heparanase activity during dengue virus infection.MethodsHeparanase activity (plasma and urine), and heparan sulfate and syndecan-1 (plasma levels) were measured in dengue patients with thrombocytopenia in acute phase (n=30), during course of disease (n=10) and in convalescent phase (n=25). Associations with clinical parameters and plasma leakage markers were explored. Platelets from healthy donors were stimulated with dengue non-structural protein-1, DENV2 virus and thrombin to evaluate heparanase release and activity ex vivo.ResultsHeparanase activity was elevated in acute dengue and normalized during convalescence. Similarly, glycocalyx components, such as heparan sulfate and syndecan-1, were increased in acute dengue and restored during convalescence. Increased heparanase activity correlated with the endothelial dysfunction markers heparan sulfate and syndecan-1, as well as clinical markers of plasma leakage such as ascites, hematocrit concentration and gall-bladder wall thickening. Notably, platelet number inversely correlated with heparanase activity. Ex vivo incubation of platelets with thrombin and live DENV2 virus, but not dengue virus-2-derived non-structural protein 1 induced heparanase release from platelets.ConclusionTaken together, our findings suggest that the increase of heparanase activity in dengue patients is associated with endothelial glycocalyx degradation and plasma leakage. Furthermore, thrombin or DENV2 activated platelets may be considered as a potential source of heparanase.
Project description:BackgroundWe evaluated clinical and laboratory findings among patients with nonsevere or severe dengue in Puerto Rico to examine whether clinical manifestations vary by age.MethodsDuring 2012-2014, we enrolled patients who arrived at the emergency department with fever or history of fever within 7 days of presentation. Serum samples were tested for dengue virus (DENV) by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and IgM enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Severe dengue was defined as severe plasma leakage or shock, severe bleeding, or organ involvement at presentation, during hospitalization, or follow-up.ResultsOf 1089 dengue patients identified, 281 (26%) were severe. Compared to those with nonsevere dengue, patients with severe dengue were more often aged 10-19 years (55% vs 40%, P < .001) and hospitalized (87% vs 30%, P < .001). Severe plasma leakage or shock was more common among children aged 0-9 (59%) or 10-19 years (86%) than adults (49%) (P < .01). Severe bleeding was less common among 10-19 year olds (24%) compared to 0-9 year olds (45%) and adults (52%; P < .01).ConclusionsSevere plasma leakage was the most common presentation among children, highlighting important differences from adults. Vaccination against dengue could help prevent severe dengue among children in Puerto Rico.
Project description:Plasma leakage is a precursor to life-threatening complications of dengue, but this group is poorly defined and not often reported in literature. Patients with Dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) as defined in the 1997 World Health Organization classification are often reported, and they all have plasma leakage, but some patients with plasma leakage do not meet the definition of DHF. The study aims to estimate the frequency of plasma leakage and DHF (as a surrogate of plasma leakage) in dengue and its variations based on virus serotype, geography, patient gender and pre-existing immunity to dengue. PUBMED, Scopus, EMBASE, CINAHL and Web of Science were searched for prospective observational studies reporting on plasma leakage or DHF. Quality of data was assessed using the NIH quality assessment tool for cohort studies. Forty-three studies that recruited 15,794 confirmed dengue patients were eligible. Cumulative frequency of plasma leakage was 36.8% (15 studies, 1642/4462, 95% CI 35.4-38.2%), but surprisingly the estimated cumulative frequency of DHF was higher (45.7%, 32 studies, 4758/10417, 95% CI 44.7-46.6%), indicating that current medical literature over-reports DHF or under-reports plasma leakage. Therefore, a reliable estimate for the proportion of dengue patients developing plasma leakage cannot be derived from existing medical literature even after applying rigorous inclusion criteria to select homogenous studies. Plasma leakage is an important marker of "at-risk" dengue patients and standardizing its definition, diagnosis and reporting should be a priority in research and global policy.
Project description:BackgroundAt least a third of dengue patients develop plasma leakage with increased risk of life-threatening complications. Predicting plasma leakage using laboratory parameters obtained in early infection as means of triaging patients for hospital admission is important for resource-limited settings.MethodsA Sri Lankan cohort including 4,768 instances of clinical data from N = 877 patients (60.3% patients with confirmed dengue infection) recorded in the first 96 hours of fever was considered. After excluding incomplete instances, the dataset was randomly split into a development and a test set with 374 (70%) and 172 (30%) patients, respectively. From the development set, five most informative features were selected using the minimum description length (MDL) algorithm. Random forest and light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM) were used to develop a classification model using the development set based on nested cross validation. An ensemble of the learners via average stacking was used as the final model to predict plasma leakage.ResultsLymphocyte count, haemoglobin, haematocrit, age, and aspartate aminotransferase were the most informative features to predict plasma leakage. The final model achieved the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve, AUC = 0.80 with positive predictive value, PPV = 76.9%, negative predictive value, NPV = 72.5%, specificity = 87.9%, and sensitivity = 54.8% on the test set.ConclusionThe early predictors of plasma leakage identified in this study are similar to those identified in several prior studies that used non-machine learning based methods. However, our observations strengthen the evidence base for these predictors by showing their relevance even when individual data points, missing data and non-linear associations were considered. Testing the model on different populations using these low-cost observations would identify further strengths and limitations of the presented model.
Project description:BackgroundAlthough most of cases of dengue infections are asymptomatic or mild symptomatic some individuals present warning signs progressing to severe dengue in which plasma leakage is a hallmark.Methodology/principal findingsThe present study used Electric Cell-substrate Impedance Sensing (ECIS®) which allows for electrical monitoring of cellular barrier function measuring changes in Transendothelial Electric Resistance (TEER) to investigate the parameters associated with dengue induced leakage. Three groups of individuals were tested: dengue-positives with plasma leakage (leakage), dengue-positives without plasma leakage (no leakage), and dengue-negatives (control). Data show that TEER values of human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVECs) was significantly lower after incubation with serum from subjects of the leakage group in comparison to the no leakage or control groups. The serum levels of CXCL1, EGF, eotaxin, IFN-γ, sCD40L, and platelets were significantly decreased in the leakage group, while IL-10, IL-6, and IP-10 levels were significantly increased. We also found a strong correlation between TEER values and augmented levels of IP-10, GM-CSF, IL-1α, and IL-8, as well as decreased levels of CXCL1 and platelets.Conclusions/significanceThe present work shows that the magnitude of the immune response contributes to the adverse plasma leakage outcomes in patients and that serum components are important mediators of changes in endothelial homeostasis during dengue infections. In particular, the increased levels of IP-10 and the decreased levels of CXCL1 and platelets seem to play a significant role in the disruption of vascular endothelium associated with leakage outcomes after DENV infection. These findings may have important implications for both diagnostic and therapeutic approaches to predict and mitigate vascular permeabilization in those experiencing the most severe clinical disease outcomes after dengue infection.
Project description:Colon leakage score (CLS) was introduced as a clinical tool to predict anastomotic leakage (AL) in patients who underwent left-sided colorectal surgery, but its clinical validity has not been widely studied. We evaluated the clinical utility of CLS and developed a modified CLS (m-CLS). In total, 566 patients who underwent left-sided colorectal surgery were enrolled and categorized into training (n = 396) and validation (n = 170) sets via random sampling. Using CLS variables, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model was applied for variable selection and predictive signature building in the training set. The model's performance was validated in the validation set. The predictive powers of m-CLS and CLS were compared by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve in the overall group. Twenty-three AL events (4.1%) were noted. The AL group had a significantly higher mean CLS than the No Leakage group (12.5 vs. 9.6, p = 0.001). Five clinical variables were selected and used to generate m-CLS. The predictive performance of m-CLS was similar in training and validation sets (AUROC 0.838 vs. 0.803, p = 0.724). In the overall set, m-CLS was significantly predictive of AL and performed better than CLS (AUROC 0.831 vs. 0.701, p = 0.008). In conclusion, LASSO-model-generated m-CLS could predict AL more accurately than CLS.
Project description:CD8 T cells play roles in eliminating virus infected targets through cytotoxic effector function and are of great interest from vaccination prespective. Previous studies suggest that the cytokines produced by the CD8 T cells may contribute to the pathological consequences. Because the dengue specific memory T cells strongly secrete cytokines upon in vitro stimulation with heterologous viral antigen, the ‘cytokine storm’ induced by activated T cells may contribute to the immunopathology of dengue infection. Moreover, the CD8 T cell expansion peaks before or around the time of the peak of clinical symptoms, and the frequency of activated CD8 T cells and cytokine producing cells was somewhat higher in patients with severe forms of dengue disease. To gain further insight into the characteristics of activated CD8 T cells, we performed microarray analysis of the HLA-DR+CD38+ CD8 T cells that were sorted from the PBMCs of seven dengue patients from Siriraj Hospital in Bangkok, Thailand and compare with the sorted naive (CCR7+CD45RA+) CD8 T cells from five Thai healthy donors.
Project description:A prominent histopathological feature of fatal dengue cases is hepatic steatosis. However, the association between hepatic steatosis and dengue severity is unknown. We conducted a study to determine the associations of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) with laboratory markers of dengue severity and length of hospital stay (LOS). A retrospective study was conducted at a private hospital in Jakarta, Indonesia, from December 2011 to December 2016. Bivariate analysis was performed to analyze the associations of laboratory markers of dengue severity and LOS with the presence or absence of NAFLD in no-plasma-leakage (no leakage) and plasma-leakage (leakage) groups. There were 267 dengue-infected patients included in this study. Of these patients, 115 (43.1%) were classified as belonging to the no leakage group, and 152 (56.9%) were classified as belonging to the leakage group. Of the 115 patients belonging to the no leakage group, 53 (46.1%) did not have NAFLD, and 62 (53.9%) had NAFLD. Of the 152 patients belonging to the leakage group, 85 (55.9%) did not have NAFLD, and 67 (44.1%) had NAFLD. Leakage group patients with NAFLD experienced significantly higher hemoconcentration severity (p = 0.04), lower platelet count (p = 0.004) and higher LOS (p = 0.042) than did leakage group patients without NAFLD. The presence of NAFLD in dengue-infected patients with plasma leakage was associated with more severe hemoconcentration, thrombocytopenia and prolonged hospital stay.
Project description:BackgroundAnastomotic leak (AL) is a common but severe complication after oesophagectomy. It is unknown how to determine the severity of AL objectively at diagnosis. Determining leak severity may guide treatment decisions and improve future research. This study aimed to identify leak-related prognostic factors for mortality, and to develop a Severity of oEsophageal Anastomotic Leak (SEAL) score.MethodsThis international, retrospective cohort study in 71 centres worldwide included patients with AL after oesophagectomy between 2011 and 2019. The primary endpoint was 90-day mortality. Leak-related prognostic factors were identified after adjusting for confounders and were included in multivariable logistic regression to develop the SEAL score. Four classes of leak severity (mild, moderate, severe, and critical) were defined based on the risk of 90-day mortality, and the score was validated internally.ResultsSome 1509 patients with AL were included and the 90-day mortality rate was 11.7 per cent. Twelve leak-related prognostic factors were included in the SEAL score. The score showed good calibration and discrimination (c-index 0.77, 95 per cent c.i. 0.73 to 0.81). Higher classes of leak severity graded by the SEAL score were associated with a significant increase in duration of ICU stay, healing time, Comprehensive Complication Index score, and Esophagectomy Complications Consensus Group classification.ConclusionThe SEAL score grades leak severity into four classes by combining 12 leak-related predictors and can be used to the assess severity of AL after oesophagectomy.
Project description:Background: Dengue is the most common arboviral infection globally; a minority of patients develop shock due to profound plasma leak through a disrupted endothelial barrier. Understanding of the pathophysiology underlying plasma leak is incomplete, but emerging evidence indicates a key role for degradation of the endothelial glycocalyx. Methods: We conducted an observational study in Vietnam to evaluate the sublingual microcirculation using sidestream darkfield imaging in (1) outpatients with confirmed dengue (2) patients hospitalized with dengue and (3) outpatients with other febrile illness (OFI). We estimated the glycocalyx degradation by measuring the perfused boundary region (PBR hf) and an overall microvascular health score (MVHS) with the software application GlycoCheckTM at enrolment, 48 h later and hospital discharge/defervescence. We measured plasma syndecan1 and endocan at the same time-points. We compared PBR hf, MVHS, syndecan1 and endocan, between (1) outpatients with confirmed dengue vs. OFI and (2) patients with dengue subdivided by clinical severity of plasma leak. Results: We included 75 patients with dengue (41 outpatients, 15 inpatients, 19 in intensive care) and 12 outpatients with OFI. Images from 45 patients were analyzed using GlycoCheckTM. There was no significant difference in PBR hf or MVHS between outpatients with dengue and OFI. Median plasma syndecan1 was not significantly different in outpatients with dengue vs. OFI, while median plasma endocan was significantly lower among patients with dengue vs. OFI during the critical phase. In patients with dengue, PBR hf was higher in patients with Grade 2 vs. Grade 0 plasma leakage during the critical phase (PBR hf 1.96 vs. 1.36 μm for Grade 2 vs. Grade 0 plasma leakage on days 4-6, respectively, p < 0.001). Median levels of plasma syndecan1 and endocan were higher in Grade 2 vs. Grade 0 plasma leakage, especially during the critical phase (Syndecan1 2,613.8 vs. 125.9 ng/ml for Grade 2 vs. Grade 0 plasma leakage on days 4-6, respectively, p < 0.001, and endocan 3.21 vs. 0.16 ng/ml for Grade 2 vs. Grade 0 plasma leakage on days 4-6, respectively). Conclusions: We present the first human in vivo evidence of glycocalyx disruption in dengue, with worse visual glycocalyx damage and higher plasma degradation products associated with more severe plasma leak.