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Predicting patient-specific response to adaptive therapy in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer using prostate-specific antigen dynamics.

ABSTRACT: Abiraterone acetate (AA) has been proven effective for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC), and it has been proposed that adaptive AA may reduce toxicity and prolong time to progression, when compared to continuous AA. We developed a simple quantitative model of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) dynamics to evaluate prostate cancer (PCa) stem cell enrichment as a plausible driver of AA treatment resistance. The model incorporated PCa stem cells, non-stem PCa cells and PSA dynamics during adaptive therapy. A leave-one-out analysis was used to calibrate and validate the model against longitudinal PSA data from 16 mCRPC patients receiving adaptive AA in a pilot clinical study. Early PSA treatment response dynamics were used to predict patient response to subsequent treatment. We extended the model to incorporate metastatic burden and also investigated the survival benefit of adding concurrent chemotherapy for patients predicted to become resistant. Model simulations demonstrated PCa stem cell self-renewal as a plausible driver of resistance to adaptive therapy. Evolutionary dynamics from individual treatment cycles combined with metastatic burden measurements predicted patient response with 81% accuracy (specificity=92%, sensitivity=50%). In those patients predicted to progress, simulations of the addition of concurrent chemotherapy suggest a benefit between 1% and 11% reduction in probability of progression when compared to adaptive AA alone. This study developed the first mCRPC patient-specific mathematical model to use early PSA treatment response dynamics to predict subsequent responses to adaptive AA, demonstrating the putative value of integrating mathematical modeling into clinical decision making.

SUBMITTER: Brady-Nicholls R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8322456 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundTherapeutic cancer vaccines have shown activity in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC), and methods are being assessed to enhance their efficacy. Ipilimumab is an antagonistic monoclonal antibody that binds cytotoxic T-lymphocyte-associated protein 4, an immunomodulatory molecule expressed by activated T cells, and to CD80 on antigen-presenting cells. We aimed to assess the safety and tolerability of ipilimumab in combination with a poxviral-based vaccine targeting prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and containing transgenes for T-cell co-stimulatory molecule expression, including CD80.MethodsWe did a phase 1 dose-escalation trial, with a subsequent expansion phase, to assess the safety and tolerability of escalating doses of ipilimumab in combination with a fixed dose of the PSA-Tricom vaccine. Patients with mCRPC received 2×10(8) plaque-forming units of recombinant vaccinia PSA-Tricom subcutaneously on day 1 of cycle 1, with subsequent monthly boosts of 1×10(9) plaque-forming units, starting on day 15. Intravenous ipilimumab was given monthly starting at day 15, in doses of 1, 3, 5, and 10 mg/kg. Our primary goal was to assess the safety of the combination. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00113984.FindingsWe completed enrolment with 30 patients (24 of whom had not been previously treated with chemotherapy) and we did not identify any dose-limiting toxic effects. Grade 1 and 2 vaccination-site reactions were the most common toxic effects: three of 30 patients had grade 1 reactions and 26 had grade 2 reactions. 21 patients had grade 2 or greater immune-related adverse events. Grade 3 or 4 immune-related adverse events included diarrhoea or colitis in four patients and grade 3 rash (two patients), grade 3 raised aminotransferases (two patients), grade 3 endocrine immune-related adverse events (two patients), and grade 4 neutropenia (one patient). Only one of the six patients previously treated with chemotherapy had a PSA decline from baseline. Of the 24 patients who were chemotherapy-naive, 14 (58%) had PSA declines from baseline, of which six were greater than 50%.InterpretationThe use of a vaccine targeting PSA that also enhances co-stimulation of the immune system did not seem to exacerbate the immune-related adverse events associated with ipilimumab. Randomised trials are needed to further assess clinical outcomes of the combination of ipilimumab and vaccine in mCRPC.FundingUS National Institutes of Health.

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Predicting patient-specific response to adaptive therapy in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer using prostate-specific antigen dynamics.

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