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Do economic effects of the anti-COVID-19 lockdowns in different regions interact through supply chains?

ABSTRACT: To prevent the spread of COVID-19, many cities, states, and countries have 'locked down', restricting economic activities in non-essential sectors. Such lockdowns have substantially shrunk production in most countries. This study examines how the economic effects of lockdowns in different regions interact through supply chains, which are a network of firms for production, by simulating an agent-based model of production using supply-chain data for 1.6 million firms in Japan. We further investigate how the complex network structure affects the interactions between lockdown regions, emphasising the role of upstreamness and loops by decomposing supply-chain flows into potential and circular flow components. We find that a region's upstreamness, intensity of loops, and supplier substitutability in supply chains with other regions largely determine the economic effect of the lockdown in the region. In particular, when a region lifts its lockdown, its economic recovery substantially varies depending on whether it lifts the lockdown alone or together with another region closely linked through supply chains. These results indicate that the economic effect produced by exogenous shocks in a region can affect other regions and therefore this study proposes the need for inter-region policy coordination to reduce economic loss due to lockdowns.

SUBMITTER: Inoue H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8323942 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, vaccine manufacturers quickly pivoted to develop vaccines, offering limited visibility into production timelines and quantities. Low- and middle-income countries developed vaccine introduction plans within the context of constrained global supply, unknown vaccine availability or timelines, and unknown demand. The Vaccine Collaborative Supply Planning (VCSP) Initiative was established to address the gaps in visibility of supply and demand of COVID-19 vaccines for improved supply planning. The Initiative drew from experiences with supply planning for other health program products. The Initiative's 2 goals for introducing COVID-19 vaccines were to: (1) incorporate the use of supply chain data for forecasting, supply planning, and resupply decisions; and (2) establish a collaborative model for governments and partners to learn and implement. Beginning in September 2021, the Initiative was operational in 15 countries through strategic partnerships with government immunization programs and 7 partnering organizations. Partners noted the Initiative offered several benefits: enabled visibility into stock status; provided ability to triangulate service delivery and stock data; provided insight into products at risk of expiry; facilitated tracking of monthly consumption patterns to inform decisions; offered ability to create forecasting scenarios; provided support to national logistics working groups; improved coordination at the country level; created trust through transparency across global partners; and offered opportunity for real-time adjustments through adaptive learning. Partners also noted challenges, including the influence of political decisions and the availability of quality data. The Initiative successfully applied best practices for supply planning, established a collaborative model with government decision-makers and partners, and used an adaptive learning approach to respond to the challenges of rolling out the COVID-19 vaccine. Lessons learned and recommendations suggest how this approach can be used to strengthen forecasting and supply planning for all vaccines as the COVID-19 vaccine is integrated into routine services.

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Do economic effects of the anti-COVID-19 lockdowns in different regions interact through supply chains?

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