Stroke risk prediction using machine learning: a prospective cohort study of 0.5 million Chinese adults.
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ABSTRACT: Objective
To compare Cox models, machine learning (ML), and ensemble models combining both approaches, for prediction of stroke risk in a prospective study of Chinese adults.Materials and methods
We evaluated models for stroke risk at varying intervals of follow-up (<9 years, 0-3 years, 3-6 years, 6-9 years) in 503 842 adults without prior history of stroke recruited from 10 areas in China in 2004-2008. Inputs included sociodemographic factors, diet, medical history, physical activity, and physical measurements. We compared discrimination and calibration of Cox regression, logistic regression, support vector machines, random survival forests, gradient boosted trees (GBT), and multilayer perceptrons, benchmarking performance against the 2017 Framingham Stroke Risk Profile. We then developed an ensemble approach to identify individuals at high risk of stroke (>10% predicted 9-yr stroke risk) by selectively applying either a GBT or Cox model based on individual-level characteristics.Results
For 9-yr stroke risk prediction, GBT provided the best discrimination (AUROC: 0.833 in men, 0.836 in women) and calibration, with consistent results in each interval of follow-up. The ensemble approach yielded incrementally higher accuracy (men: 76%, women: 80%), specificity (men: 76%, women: 81%), and positive predictive value (men: 26%, women: 24%) compared to any of the single-model approaches.Discussion and conclusion
Among several approaches, an ensemble model combining both GBT and Cox models achieved the best performance for identifying individuals at high risk of stroke in a contemporary study of Chinese adults. The results highlight the potential value of expanding the use of ML in clinical practice.
SUBMITTER: Chun M
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8324240 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundMany cohort studies have explored the relation between tea consumption and stroke risk; however, the conclusions have been inconsistent. In addition, evidence is lacking in China, where the patterns of tea consumption and main types of tea consumed differ substantially from those in high-income countries.ObjectiveWe aimed to systematically assess the association of tea consumption with the risk of stroke based on a Chinese large-scale cohort study.MethodsA total of 487,377 participants from the China Kadoorie Biobank were included in the present study. Detailed information about tea consumption (including frequency, duration, amount, and tea type) was self-reported at baseline. After ∼4.3 million person-years of follow-up, 38,727 incident cases of stroke were recorded, mainly through linkage with mortality and morbidity registries and based on the national health insurance system.ResultsOverall, 128,280 adults (26.3%) reported drinking tea almost daily (41.4% men, 15.9% women), predominantly green tea (86.7%). Tea consumption had an inverse and dose-response relation with the risk of stroke (Ptrend < 0.001). Compared with nonconsumers, those who consumed tea occasionally, weekly, and daily had adjusted HRs and 95% CIs of 0.96 (0.94, 0.99), 0.94 (0.90, 0.98), and 0.92 (0.89, 0.95) respectively, with little difference by stroke type. Among those who consumed tea daily, the HRs for stroke decreased with the increasing duration and amount of tea consumed (all P < 0.001). These inverse associations were significant for green tea but not for other types of tea. Among men, but not women, the inverse relations could be detected, and similar inverse associations could be found for male noncurrent alcohol-consumers and noncurrent smokers as well.ConclusionsAmong Chinese adults, higher consumption of tea, especially green tea, was associated with a lower risk of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke.
| S-EPMC7223259 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Although the relationship between depression and stroke risk has been investigated, findings in previous reports were conflicting. The aim of this study was to prospectively examine the effect of major depressive episodes (MDE) on stroke incidence and further assess the potential dose-response relationship between number of depression symptoms and subsequent stroke risk in Chinese population.A total of 199?294 men and 288?083 women aged 30 to 79 years without a history of stroke, heart disease, and cancer in the China Kadoorie Biobank cohort were followed from 2004 to 2013. A World Health Organization Composite International Diagnostic Interview-Short Form was used to access MDE according to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders-IV criteria. Stroke events were ascertained through death certificates, medical records, and health insurance data.Past year MDE was marginally associated with a 15% increased risk of stroke (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 0.99-1.33) in the fully adjusted model, and the association was steeper and statistically significant in individuals aged <50 years, smokers, drinkers, those with higher education degree, body mass index <24.0 kg/m(2), and no history of diabetes mellitus. Moreover, there was a positive dose-response relationship between the number of depression symptoms and increased stroke risk (Ptrend=0.011). In addition, smoking status significantly interacted with MDE on stroke onset (P for multiplicative interaction=0.025).Findings from this large prospective study suggest that the presence of MDE is a risk factor for stroke, especially in smokers.
| S-EPMC4998954 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundTea consumption may have favorable effects on risk of fracture. However, little is known about such association in Chinese adults. The aim of this study was to examine the association between tea consumption and risk of hospitalized fracture in Chinese adults.MethodsThe present study included 453,625 participants from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB). Tea consumption was self-reported at baseline. Hospitalized fractures were ascertained through linkage with local health insurance claim databases.The resultsDuring a median of 10.1 years of follow-up, we documented 12,130 cases of first-time any fracture hospitalizations, including 1376 cases of hip fracture. Compared with never tea consumers, daily tea consumption was associated with lower risk of any fracture (hazard ratio (HR): 0.88; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.83, 0.93). Statistically significant reduced risk of hip fracture was shown among daily consumers who most commonly drank green tea (HR: 0.80; 95% CI: 0.65, 0.97) and those who had drunk tea for more than 30 years (HR: 0.68; 95% CI: 0.52, 0.87). Our conclusions: Habitual tea consumption was associated with moderately decreased risk of any fracture hospitalizations. Participants with decades of tea consumption and those who preferred green tea were also associated with lower risk of hip fracture.
| S-EPMC6265708 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSuicide is a leading cause of death in China and accounts for about one-sixth of all suicides worldwide. The objective of this study was to examine the recent distribution of suicide and risk factors for death by suicide. Identifying underlying risk factors could benefit development of evidence-based prevention and intervention programs.Methods and findingsWe conducted a prospective study, the China Kadoorie Biobank, of 512,715 individuals (41% men, mean age 52 years) from 10 (5 urban, 5 rural) areas which are diverse across China in geographic locations, social economic developmental stages, and prevalence of disease patterns. After the baseline measurements of risk factors during 2004 to 2008, participants were followed up for suicide outcomes including suicide and possible suicide deaths. Risk factors, such as sociodemographic factors and physical and mental health status, were assessed by semistructured interviews and self-report questionnaires. Suicide and possible suicide deaths were identified through linkage to the local death registries using ICD-10 codes. We conducted Cox regression to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for suicide and for possible suicide in sensitivity analyses. During an average follow-up period of 9.9 years, 520 (101 per 100,000) people died from suicide (51.3% male), and 79.8% of them lived in rural areas. Sociodemographic factors associated with increased suicide risk were male gender (adjusted hazard ratios [aHR] = 1.6 [95% CI 1.4 to 2.0], p < 0.001), older age (1.3 [1.2 to 1.5] by each 10-yr increase, p < 0.001), rural residence (2.6 [2.1 to 3.3], p < 0.001), and single status (1.7 [1.4 to 2.2], p < 0.001). Increased hazards were found for family-related stressful life events (aHR = 1.8 [1.2 to 1.9], p < 0.001) and for major physical illnesses (1.5 [1.3 to 1.9], p < 0.001). There were strong associations of suicide with a history of lifetime mental disorders (aHR = 9.6 [5.9 to 15.6], p < 0.001) and lifetime schizophrenia-spectrum disorders (11.0 [7.1 to 17.0], p < 0.001). Links between suicide risk and depressive disorders (aHR = 2.6 [1.4 to 4.8], p = 0.002) and generalized anxiety disorders (2.6 [1.0 to 7.1], p = 0.056) in the last 12 months, and sleep disorders (1.4 [1.2 to 1.7], p < 0.001) in the past month were also found. All HRs were adjusted for sociodemographic factors including gender, age, residence, single status, education, and income. The associations with possible suicide deaths were mostly similar to those with suicide deaths, although there was no clear link between possible suicide deaths and psychiatric factors such as depression and generalized anxiety disorders. A limitation of the study is that there is likely underreporting of mental disorders due to the use of self-report information for some diagnostic categories.ConclusionsIn this study, we observed that a range of sociodemographic, lifestyle, stressful life events, physical, and mental health factors were associated with suicide in China. High-risk groups identified were elderly men in rural settings and individuals with mental disorders. These findings could form the basis of targeted approaches to reduce suicide mortality in China.
| S-EPMC7951865 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Current experimental and epidemiological studies provide inconsistent evidence toward the association between tea consumption and cancer incidence. We investigated whether tea consumption was associated with the incidence of all cancers and six leading types of cancer (lung cancer, stomach cancer, colorectal cancer, liver cancer, female breast cancer and cervix uteri cancer) among 455,981 participants aged 30-79 years in the prospective cohort China Kadoorie Biobank. Tea consumption was assessed at baseline (2004-2008) with an interviewer-administered questionnaire. Cancer cases were identified by linkage to the national health insurance system. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). In the present population, daily tea consumers were more likely to be current smokers and daily alcohol consumers. 22,652 incident cancers occurred during 10.1 years follow-up (5.04 cases/1000 person-years). When we restricted analyses to non-smokers and non-excessive alcohol consumers to minimize confounding, tea consumption was not associated with all cancers (daily consumers who added tea leaves > 4.0 g/day vs. less-than-weekly consumers: HR, 1.03; 95%CI, 0.93-1.13), lung cancer (HR, 1.08; CI, 0.84-1.40), colorectal cancer (HR, 1.08; CI, 0.81-1.45) and liver cancer (HR, 1.08; CI, 0.75-1.55), yet might be associated with increased risk of stomach cancer (HR, 1.46; CI, 1.07-1.99). In both less-than-daily and daily tea consumers, all cancer risk increased with the amount of tobacco smoked or alcohol consumed. Our findings suggest tea consumption may not provide preventive effect against cancer incidence.
| S-EPMC6602977 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundLittle prospective evidence exists about risk factors and prognosis of acute pancreatitis in China. We examined the associations of certain metabolic and lifestyle factors with risk of acute pancreatitis in Chinese adults.Methods and findingsThe prospective China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) recruited 512,891 adults aged 30 to 79 years from 5 urban and 5 rural areas between 25 June 2004 and 15 July 2008. During 9.2 years of follow-up (to 1 January 2015), 1,079 cases of acute pancreatitis were recorded. Cox regression was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for acute pancreatitis associated with various metabolic and lifestyle factors among all or male (for smoking and alcohol drinking) participants. Overall, the mean waist circumference (WC) was 82.1 cm (SD 9.8) cm in men and 79.0 cm (SD 9.5) cm in women, 6% had diabetes, and 6% had gallbladder disease at baseline. WC was positively associated with risk of acute pancreatitis, with an adjusted HR of 1.35 (95% CI 1.27-1.43; p < 0.001) per 1-SD-higher WC. Individuals with diabetes or gallbladder disease had HRs of 1.34 (1.07-1.69; p = 0.01) and 2.42 (2.03-2.88; p < 0.001), respectively. Physical activity was inversely associated with risk of acute pancreatitis, with each 4 metabolic equivalent of task (MET) hours per day (MET-h/day) higher physical activity associated with an adjusted HR of 0.95 (0.91-0.99; p = 0.03). Compared with those without any metabolic risk factors (i.e., obesity, diabetes, gallbladder disease, and physical inactivity), the HRs of acute pancreatitis for those with 1, 2, or ?3 risk factors were 1.61 (1.47-1.76), 2.36 (2.01-2.78), and 3.41 (2.46-4.72), respectively (p < 0.001). Among men, heavy alcohol drinkers (?420 g/week) had an HR of 1.52 (1.11-2.09; p = 0.04, compared with abstainers), and current regular smokers had an HR of 1.45 (1.28-1.64; p = 0.02, compared with never smokers). Following a diagnosis of acute pancreatitis, there were higher risks of pancreatic cancer (HR = 8.26 [3.42-19.98]; p < 0.001; 13 pancreatic cancer cases) and death (1.53 [1.17-2.01]; p = 0.002; 89 deaths). Other diseases of the pancreas had similar risk factor profiles and prognosis to acute pancreatitis. The main study limitations are ascertainment of pancreatitis using hospital records and residual confounding.ConclusionsIn this relatively lean Chinese population, several modifiable metabolic and lifestyle factors were associated with higher risks of acute pancreatitis, and individuals with acute pancreatitis had higher risks of pancreatic cancer and death.
| S-EPMC6070164 | biostudies-literature
Project description:A few prospective studies have suggested that tea, alcohol, and fruit consumption may reduce the risk of kidney stones. However, little is known whether such associations and their combined effect persist in Chinese adults, for whom the popular tea and alcohol drinks are different from those investigated in the aforementioned studies. The present study included 502,621 participants from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB). Information about tea, alcohol, and fruit consumption was self-reported at baseline. The first documented cases of kidney stones during follow-up were collected through linkage with the national health insurance system. Cox regression was used to calculate the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). During a median of 11.1 years of follow-up, we collected 12,407 cases of kidney stones. After multivariable adjustment, tea, alcohol, and fruit consumption were found to be negatively associated with kidney stone risk, but the linear trend was only found in tea and fruit consumption. Compared with non-tea consumers, the HR (95% CI) for participants who drank ≥7 cups of tea per day was 0.73 (0.65-0.83). Compared with non-alcohol consumers, the HR (95% CI) was 0.79 (0.72-0.87) for participants who drank pure alcohol of 30.0-59.9 g per day but had no further decrease with a higher intake of alcohol. Compared with less-than-weekly consumers, the HR (95% CI) for daily fruit consumers was 0.81 (0.75-0.87). Even for those who did not drink alcohol excessively, increasing tea and fruit consumption could also independently reduce the stone risk. Among Chinese adults, tea, alcohol, and fruit consumption was associated with a lower risk of kidney stones.
| S-EPMC8065818 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThere is uncertainty about the optimum sleep duration for risk of different subtypes of stroke and ischaemic heart disease.MethodsThe present analyses involved 409,156 adults in the China Kadoorie Biobank study without a prior history of coronary heart disease or stroke or insomnia symptoms. The mean age of study participants was 52 years and 59% were women. Self-reported sleep duration including daytime napping was recorded using a questionnaire. The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for disease outcomes associated with sleep duration were estimated by Cox proportional hazards after adjustment for confounding factors.ResultsThe overall mean (SD) sleep duration was 7.4 (1.4) hours. The associations of sleep duration with CVD types were U-shaped, with individuals reporting 7-8 h of sleep having the lowest risks. Compared with those who typically slept 7-8 h, individuals with very short sleep duration (≤ 5 h) had adjusted HRs of 1.10 (95% CI 1.04-1.16), 1.07 (1.01-1.13), 1.19 (1.06-1.33) and 1.23 (1.10-1.37) for total stroke, ischaemic stroke (IS), Intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) and major coronary events (MCE), respectively. Likewise, individuals with very long sleep duration (≥ 10 h) had HRs of 1.12 (1.07-1.17), 1.08 (1.03-1.14), 1.23 (1.12-1.35) and 1.22 (1.10-1.34) for the same diseases, respectively, with little differences by sex and age. The patterns were similar for all-cause mortality.ConclusionsWhile abnormal sleep duration (≤ 6 h or ≥ 9 h) was associated with higher risks of CVD, the risks were more extreme for those reporting ≤ 5 or ≥ 10 h, respectively and such individuals should be prioritised for more intensive treatment for CVD prevention.
| S-EPMC10500908 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe effect of the overall diet quality on cardiometabolic diseases has been well studied in the Western population. However, evidence is still in need regarding dietary patterns depicting unique Chinese dietary habits and their associations with cardiometabolic diseases.MethodsA prospective cohort recruited around 0.5 million Chinese residents aged 30-79 years from 10 diverse survey sites during 2004-08. Dietary patterns were obtained using factor analysis based on the habitual consumption of 12 food groups collected at baseline. Among 477,465 eligible participants free of prior heart disease, stroke and cancer, linkages to multiple registries and health insurance database recorded 137,715 cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and 17,412 diabetes cases (among 451,846 non-diabetic participants) until 31 December 2017. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated to compare the risks of cardiometabolic diseases across quintiles of dietary pattern scores using the Cox regression.ResultsTwo dietary patterns were derived: the traditional northern pattern, characterised by wheat, other staples, egg and dairy products; and the modern pattern, featured with fresh fruit, meat, poultry, fish, dairy products and soybean. Adherence to either dietary pattern was associated with lower risks of major cardiometabolic diseases in a dose-response relationship way. After multivariate adjustment, participants adhering to the traditional northern pattern the most had an 8% (95%CI: 5-11%) lower risk of CVD in comparison with those adhering the least. Corresponding risk reductions were 12% (11-32%) for haemorrhagic stroke (HS), 14% (8-19%) for ischaemic stroke (IS), and 15% (6-24%) for diabetes, respectively. When comparing extreme quintiles of the modern pattern, the adjusted HR of HS was 0.67 (95%CI: 0.59-0.77). Corresponding HRs were 0.89 (0.86-0.92) for CVD, 0.88 (0.77-0.99) for MCE, 0.85 (0.80-0.89) for IS, and 0.89 (0.81, 0.97) for diabetes.ConclusionAmong Chinese adults, both traditional northern and modern dietary patterns were associated with lower risks of cardiovascular disease and diabetes beyond other risk factors.
| S-EPMC8418004 | biostudies-literature
Project description:AIMS/HYPOTHESIS:Season of birth as a surrogate for potential environmental exposure during fetal development and early postnatal life has shown an inconsistent association with adult type 2 diabetes in white populations living in high-latitude regions. The present study aimed to examine the association between birth seasonality and risk of adult type 2 diabetes in Chinese individuals living across wide regions of low latitude and lower to middle latitude. METHODS:Participants from the China Kadoorie Biobank were enrolled during 2004-2008 and followed up until 31 December 2013. After excluding participants with cancer, heart disease, stroke and diabetes at baseline, the present study included 189,153 men and 272,058 women aged 30-79 years. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards model to estimate the HR and 95% CI. RESULTS:During a median follow-up of 7.2 years (3.3 million person-years), we documented 8784 incident cases of type 2 diabetes. In the whole cohort, compared with summer-born participants, the adjusted HRs (95% CIs) were 1.09 (1.02, 1.16), 1.08 (1.02, 1.15) and 1.09 (1.02, 1.15) for those who were born in Spring, Autumn and Winter, respectively. The association was consistent in both men and women and across subgroups defined by residence and lifestyle factors later in life. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION:In this large prospective study, participants born in summer had a lower risk of adult type 2 diabetes compared with other seasons of birth, suggesting exposures in early life with some degree of seasonal variation might influence the risk of adult diabetes.
| S-EPMC6521727 | biostudies-literature