Project description:We sought to assess the impact of sex on in-hospital mortality of patients with COVID-19 infection in South Korea. The study recruited 5,628 prospective consecutive patients who were hospitalized in South Korea with COVID-19 infection, and enrolled in the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) dataset between January 20, 2020, and April 30, 2020. The primary endpoint was in-hospital death from COVID-19. The cohort comprised of 3,308 women (59%) and 2,320 men (41%). In-hospital death was significantly lower in women than men (3.5% vs. 5.5%, hazard ratio (HR): 0.61; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.47 to 0.79, p <0.001). Results were consistent after multivariable regression (HR: 0.59; 95% CI: 0.41 to 0.85, p = 0.023) and propensity score matching (HR: 0.51; 95% CI: 0.30 to 0.86, p = 0.012). In South Korea, women had a significantly lower risk of in-hospital death amongst those patients hospitalized with COVID-19 infection.
Project description:BackgroundEarly identification of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) who are at high risk of mortality is of vital importance for appropriate clinical decision making and delivering optimal treatment. We aimed to develop and validate a clinical risk score for predicting mortality at the time of admission of patients hospitalized with COVID-19.MethodsCollaborating with the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC), we established a prospective consecutive cohort of 5,628 patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection who were admitted to 120 hospitals in Korea between January 20, 2020, and April 30, 2020. The cohort was randomly divided using a 7:3 ratio into a development (n = 3,940) and validation (n = 1,688) set. Clinical information and complete blood count (CBC) detected at admission were investigated using Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) and logistic regression to construct a predictive risk score (COVID-Mortality Score). The discriminative power of the risk model was assessed by calculating the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curves.ResultsThe incidence of mortality was 4.3% in both the development and validation set. A COVID-Mortality Score consisting of age, sex, body mass index, combined comorbidity, clinical symptoms, and CBC was developed. AUCs of the scoring system were 0.96 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.85-0.91) and 0.97 (95% CI, 0.84-0.93) in the development and validation set, respectively. If the model was optimized for > 90% sensitivity, accuracies were 81.0% and 80.2% with sensitivities of 91.7% and 86.1% in the development and validation set, respectively. The optimized scoring system has been applied to the public online risk calculator (https://www.diseaseriskscore.com).ConclusionThis clinically developed and validated COVID-Mortality Score, using clinical data available at the time of admission, will aid clinicians in predicting in-hospital mortality.
Project description:PurposeWe aimed to investigate whether the use of cardiovascular drugs in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients with hypertension as a comorbidity has a significant effect on the incidence and associated mortality rate of COVID-19.Materials and methodsData covering the period between January 1, 2020 and June 4, 2020 were extracted from The National Health Insurance Service-COVID-19 (NHIS-COVID-19) database in South Korea and analyzed as a population-based cohort study.ResultsA total of 101657 hypertensive adults aged 20 years or older were included for final analysis. Among them, 1889 patients (1.9%) were diagnosed with COVID-19 between January 1, 2020 and June 4, 2020, and hospital mortality occurred in 193 patients (10.2%). In a multivariable model, the use of beta-blockers was associated with an 18% lower incidence of COVID-19 [odds ratio (OR): 0.82, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.69-0.98; p=0.029]. Among 1889 hypertensive patients diagnosed with COVID-19, the use of a calcium channel blocker (CCB) was associated with a 42% lower hospital mortality rate (OR: 0.58, 95% CI: 0.38-0.89; p=0.012). The use of other cardiovascular drugs was not associated with the incidence of COVID-19 or hospital mortality rate among COVID-19 patients. Similar results were observed in all 328374 adults in the NHIS-COVID-19 database, irrespective of the presence of hypertension.ConclusionIn South Korea, beta-blockers exhibited potential benefits in lowering the incidence of COVID-19 among hypertensive patients. Furthermore, CCBs may lower the hospital mortality rate among hypertensive COVID-19 patients. These findings were also applied to the general adult population, regardless of hypertension.
Project description:In a recent report, the British Broadcasting Company (BBC) introduced South Korea's measures to manage COVID-19 as role model for the world. Screening centers serve as frontiers for preventing community transmission of infectious diseases. COVID-19 screening centers in Korea operate 24 h a day, always open for individuals with suspected COVID-19 symptoms. South Korea concentrated COVID-19 screening centers around cities with high population density. Advanced screening centers (models C, D, and E) proved more effective and efficient in the prevention of COVID-19 than the traditional screening centers (models A and B). Particularly, screening centers at Incheon Airport in South Korea prevent transmission through imported cases effectively. It will be important elsewhere, as in South Korea, to establish an infectious disease delivery system that can lead to 'Test-Treat-Track' using an adequate model of screening centers.
Project description:BackgroundWe compared all-cause mortality between individuals in South Korea with and without coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) using propensity score (PS) matching.MethodsThis population-based cohort study used data from the National Health Insurance Service COVID-19 cohort database. In the database, we included individuals (COVID-19 patients, control population, and test-negative individuals) aged 20 years or older, regardless of hospitalization. The primary end point was all-cause mortality between January 1, 2020, and August 27, 2020.ResultsA total of 328 374 adults were included in the study: 7713 and 320 660 in the COVID-19 group and the control group. After PS matching, a total of 15 426 individuals (7713 per group) were included in the analysis. All-cause mortality was 3.2% (248/7713) and 1.6% (126/7713) in the COVID-19 group and the control group, respectively. In Cox regression analysis after PS matching, the risk of death in the COVID-19 group was twice as high (hazard ratio, 2.00; 95% CI, 1.61-2.48; P < .001) as that in the control group. Among patients aged ≥60 years, the COVID-19 group had a 2.32-fold higher all-cause mortality compared with the control group, while statistically significant differences were not observed in the age groups 20-39 years (P = .339) and 40-59 years (P = .562).ConclusionsIn South Korea, all-cause mortality was twice as high among individuals with COVID-19 as among those with similar underlying risks, primarily because of the elevated COVID-19-associated mortality in those aged ≥60 years. Our results highlight the need for prevention of COVID-19 with respect to mortality as a public health outcome.
Project description:BackgroundWe evaluate the overall effectiveness of the nationwide vaccination campaign using ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, BNT162b2, mRNA-1273, and Ad26.COV2.S vaccines in preventing Covid-19 in South Korea.MethodsThe National Surveillance System with the National Immunization Registry were linked to form a large-linked database for assessment. Age-adjusted incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, severe disease, and death by vaccination status are calculated. Weekly vaccine effectiveness was calculated based on incidence rate ratio (IRR) between fully-vaccinated and unvaccinated persons, as: IRR = incidence rate of vaccinated / incidence rate of unvaccinated. We estimate the cumulative SARS-CoV-2 outcome overtime comparing the observed case with predicted cases without vaccination.ResultsAge-adjusted incidence in unvaccinated persons (5.69 per 100,000 person-day) was 2.7 times the rate in fully vaccinated (2.13 per 100,000 person-day) persons, resulting effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection of 63%. Vaccine effectiveness against severe disease and death were 93% and 95%, respectively. Between March and October 2021, estimated Covid-19 related outcomes averted by vaccinations were: 46,508 infections, 3,424 severe diseases, and 718 deaths.ConclusionsWe found significant protection for national Covid-19 vaccination campaign against Covid-19 severe disease, and death in target populations, but there was an unexpected decreased protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection, highlighting the importance of continued surveillance and assessment.
Project description:A novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 emerged in December 2019, and it took only a few months for WHO to declare COVID-19 as a pandemic in March 2020. It is very challenging to discover complex spatial-temporal transmission mechanisms. However, it is crucial to capture essential features of regional-temporal patterns of COVID-19 to implement prompt and effective prevention or mitigation interventions. In this work, we develop a novel framework of compatible window-wise dynamic mode decomposition (CwDMD) for nonlinear infectious disease dynamics. The compatible window is a selected representative subdomain of time series data, in which compatibility between spatial and temporal resolutions is established so that DMD can provide meaningful data analysis. A total of four compatible windows have been selected from COVID-19 time-series data from January 20, 2020, to May 10, 2021, in South Korea. The spatiotemporal patterns of these four windows are then analyzed. Several hot and cold spots were identified, their spatial-temporal relationships, and some hidden regional patterns were discovered. Our analysis reveals that the first wave was contained in the Daegu and Gyeongbuk areas, but it spread rapidly to the whole of South Korea after the second wave. Later on, the spatial distribution is seen to become more homogeneous after the third wave. Our analysis also identifies that some patterns are not related to regional relevance. These findings have then been analyzed and associated with the inter-regional and local characteristics of South Korea. Thus, the present study is expected to provide public health officials helpful insights for future regional-temporal specific mitigation plans.
Project description:The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic significantly declined cancer screening rates worldwide. Its impact on the South Korean population is unclear, depending on socioeconomic status (SES), residence, and history of chronic disease. This study utilized data (2018-2020) from the Korean National Cancer Screening Survey, an annual cross-sectional study employing nationally representative random sampling. Cancer screening rates were defined as the proportion of the eligible population who received respective cancer screening within the last 1 year and investigated four major cancers (stomach, colorectal, breast, and cervical). Screening rates every year were compared with screening rate ratios (SRRs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Between 2019 and 2020, screening rates declined significantly by 23%, 17%, 12%, and 8% for colorectal cancer (SRR 0.77; 95% CI 0.73-0.82), stomach cancer (SRR 0.83; 95% CI 0.79-0.87), breast cancer (SRR 0.88; 95% CI 0.82-0.93), and cervical cancer (SRR 0.92; 95% CI 0.87-0.97), respectively. Regardless of cancer type, screening was significantly lower in metropolitan residents, those with higher SES, and, interestingly, those without a history of chronic diseases. The significant decline in cancer screening during the pandemic requires urgent political intervention to reduce the burden of future cancer incidence and mortality.
Project description:ObjectiveDespite a high prevalence of dementia in older adults hospitalized with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection (SARS-CoV-2), or so called COVID-19, research investigating association between preexisting diagnoses of dementia and prognosis of COVID-19 is scarce. We aimed to investigate treatment outcome of patients with dementia after COVID-19.MethodsWe explored a nationwide cohort with a total of 2,800 subjects older than 50 years who were diagnosed with COVID-19 between January and April 2020. Among them, 223 patients had underlying dementia (dementia group). We matched 1:1 for each dementia- non-dementia group pair yielding 223 patients without dementia (no dementia group) using propensity score matching.ResultsMortality rate after COVID-19 was higher in dementia group than in no dementia group (33.6% vs. 20.2%, p=0.002). Dementia group had higher proportion of patients requiring invasive ventilatory support than no dementia group (34.1% vs. 22.0%, p=0.006). Multivariable analysis showed that dementia group had a higher risk of mortality than no dementia group (odds ratio=3.05, p<0.001). We also found that patients in dementia group had a higher risk of needing invasive ventilatory support than those in no dementia group.ConclusionOur results suggest that system including strengthen quarantines are required for patients with dementia during the COVID- 19 pandemic.