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Research on multiple bubbles in China's multi-level stock market.

ABSTRACT: Financial bubbles have always been a topic of long-term concern for economists. Understanding bubble phenomenon and dating the period of bubbles in real time can provide an early warning diagnosis for financial bubbles and help regulatory authorities to control it and maintain market order. The generalized sup ADF (GSADF) and backward sup ADF (BSADF) tests with flexible window width can effectively detect and date periodically collapsing bubbles in real time. Based on the financial present value model, this paper applies right-tail recursive ADF test to test multiple bubbles in China's multi-level stock market. Unlike the other researches in China, the ratios of the real stock prices' natural logarithm to the real dividends' natural logarithm are used for our testing instead of stock price index. Empirical results show that there are 8 bubbles in the Main-Board Market, 6 bubbles in the Small and Medium Enterprises Board (SMEs), and 4 bubbles in the Growth Enterprise Market (GEM). These bubbles are liquidity-driven and presuppose a loose credit cycle, with the exception of bubbles in 2014-2015. The frequent emergence of bubbles in a short time indicates that China's stock market is still emerging market. In addition, frequent fluctuations imply there is a serious "herd effect" and a lack of monitoring mechanism for bubble risk. This study not only enrich the real-time dynamic research on periodical bubbles of China's stock market, but also provide an empirical reference for investors' investment choices, financial decisions of listed companies and warning mechanism of regulatory authorities.

SUBMITTER: Li G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8328329 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundWith the development of the economy, public health has become increasingly important. Therefore, it is important to establish a comprehensive and scientific the public health level index (PHL) system to measure public health level as a research priority. The current research has limitations in exploring the PHL system; therefore, the field still lacks a comprehensive indicator system to measure the level of public health. Therefore, this paper aims to develop a multi-level public health index system and utilizes China as a case study to evaluate its public health status. The objective is to offer insights and recommendations for the improvement of public health initiatives in China and other regions.MethodsUtilizing data from 2011 to 2020, a comprehensive PHL was developed to encompass three vital indices: the Public Health Service Index (PHS), the Public Health Resource Index (PHR), and the Population Health Level Index (PHL). Subsequently, the PHL, PHS, PHR, and PH were meticulously calculated using a comprehensive evaluation method. Amid the current disparity between public health and economic progress, both the spatial Durbin model and the spatial lag model were finally employed to examine the influence of economic level (EL) on PHL, thus affirming the consistent reliability and accuracy of PHS.ResultsOur findings revealed the following: (i) the PHL, PHS, and PHR indices show increasing trends in China; (ii) both EL and PHL exhibit high-high clustering and low-low clustering states; (iii) the PHL in the area has a positive spatial spillover effect on the surrounding area; (iv) EL will result in the siphoning effect of PHL; and (v) EL can enhance PHL through urbanization, PH, and PHS.ConclusionsThe PHL system constructed in this paper demonstrates multiple levels, pluralism, spatio-temporal comparability, and robustness. It can reflect not only the input and output of public health initiatives but also the interconnectedness and autonomy within the public health system. Therefore, it can be widely utilized in other areas of public health research.

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Research on multiple bubbles in China's multi-level stock market.

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