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Spatiotemporal Associations Between Social Vulnerability, Environmental Measurements, and COVID-19 in the Conterminous United States.

ABSTRACT: This study summarizes the results from fitting a Bayesian hierarchical spatiotemporal model to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases and deaths at the county level in the United States for the year 2020. Two models were created, one for cases and one for deaths, utilizing a scaled Besag, York, Mollié model with Type I spatial-temporal interaction. Each model accounts for 16 social vulnerability and 7 environmental variables as fixed effects. The spatial pattern between COVID-19 cases and deaths is significantly different in many ways. The spatiotemporal trend of the pandemic in the United States illustrates a shift out of many of the major metropolitan areas into the United States Southeast and Southwest during the summer months and into the upper Midwest beginning in autumn. Analysis of the major social vulnerability predictors of COVID-19 infection and death found that counties with higher percentages of those not having a high school diploma, having non-White status and being Age 65 and over to be significant. Among the environmental variables, above ground level temperature had the strongest effect on relative risk to both cases and deaths. Hot and cold spots, areas of statistically significant high and low COVID-19 cases and deaths respectively, derived from the convolutional spatial effect show that areas with a high probability of above average relative risk have significantly higher Social Vulnerability Index composite scores. The same analysis utilizing the spatiotemporal interaction term exemplifies a more complex relationship between social vulnerability, environmental measurements, COVID-19 cases, and COVID-19 deaths.

SUBMITTER: Johnson DP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8335698 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Watershed integrity is the capacity of a watershed to support and maintain the full range of ecological processes and functions essential to sustainability. Using information from EPA's StreamCat dataset, we calculated and mapped an Index of Watershed Integrity (IWI) for 2.6 million watersheds in the conterminous US with first-order approximations of relationships between stressors and six watershed functions: hydrologic regulation, regulation of water chemistry, sediment regulation, hydrologic connectivity, temperature regulation, and habitat provision. Results show high integrity in the western US, intermediate integrity in the southern and eastern US, and the lowest integrity in the temperate plains and lower Mississippi Valley. Correlation between the six functional components was high (r = 0.85-0.98). A related Index of Catchment Integrity (ICI) was developed using local drainages of individual stream segments (i.e., excluding upstream information). We evaluated the ability of the IWI and ICI to predict six continuous site-level indicators with regression analyses - three biological indicators and principal components derived from water quality, habitat, and combined water quality and habitat variables - using data from EPA's National Rivers and Streams Assessment. Relationships were highly significant, but the IWI only accounted for 1-12% of the variation in the four biological and habitat variables. The IWI accounted for over 25% of the variation in the water quality and combined principal components nationally, and 32-39% in the Northern and Southern Appalachians. We also used multinomial logistic regression to compare the IWI with the categorical forms of the three biological indicators. Results were consistent: we found positive associations but modest results. We compared how the IWI and ICI predicted the water quality PC relative to agricultural and urban land use. The IWI or ICI are the best predictors of the water quality PC for the CONUS and six of the nine ecoregions, but they only perform marginally better than agriculture in most instances. However, results suggest that agriculture would not be appropriate in all parts of the country, and the index is meant to be responsive to all stressors. The IWI in its present form (available through the StreamCat website; https://www.epa.gov/national-aquatic-resource-surveys/streamcat) could be useful for management efforts at multiple scales, especially when combined with information on site condition. The IWI could be improved by incorporating empirical or literature-derived relationships between functional components and stressors. However, limitations concerning the absence of data for certain stressors should be considered.

Project description:BackgroundLimited access to supermarkets may reduce consumption of healthy foods, resulting in poor nutrition and increased prevalence of obesity. Most studies have focused on accessibility of supermarkets in specific urban settings or localized rural communities. Less is known, however, about how supermarket accessibility is associated with obesity and healthy diet at the national level and how these associations differ in urban versus rural settings. We analyzed data on obesity and fruit and vegetable (F/V) consumption from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System for 2000-2006 at the county level. We used 2006 Census Zip Code Business Patterns data to compute population-weighted mean distance to supermarket at the county level for different sizes of supermarket. Multilevel logistic regression models were developed to test whether population-weighted mean distance to supermarket was associated with both obesity and F/V consumption and to determine whether these relationships varied for urban (metropolitan) versus rural (nonmetropolitan) areas.ResultsDistance to supermarket was greater in nonmetropolitan than in metropolitan areas. The odds of obesity increased and odds of consuming F/V five times or more per day decreased as distance to supermarket increased in metropolitan areas for most store size categories. In nonmetropolitan areas, however, distance to supermarket had no associations with obesity or F/V consumption for all supermarket size categories.ConclusionsObesity prevalence increased and F/V consumption decreased with increasing distance to supermarket in metropolitan areas, but not in nonmetropolitan areas. These results suggest that there may be a threshold distance in nonmetropolitan areas beyond which distance to supermarket no longer impacts obesity and F/V consumption. In addition, obesity and food environments in nonmetropolitan areas are likely driven by a more complex set of social, cultural, and physical factors than a single measure of supermarket accessibility. Future research should attempt to more precisely quantify the availability and affordability of foods in nonmetropolitan areas and consider alternative sources of healthy foods besides supermarkets.

Dataset Information

Spatiotemporal Associations Between Social Vulnerability, Environmental Measurements, and COVID-19 in the Conterminous United States.

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