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Estimation of abatement potentials and costs of air pollution emissions in China.

ABSTRACT: Understanding the air pollution emission abatement potential and associated control cost is a prerequisite to design cost efficient control policies. In this study, a linear programming algorithm model, International Control Cost Estimate Tool, was updated with cost data for applications of 56 types of end-of-pipe technologies and five types of renewable energy in 10 major sectors namely power generation, industry combustion, cement production, iron and steel production, other industry processes, domestic combustion, transportation, solvent use, livestock rearing, and fertilizer use. The updated model was implemented to estimate the abatement potential and marginal cost of multiple pollutants in China. The total maximum abatement potentials of sulfur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), primary particulate matter (PM_2.5), non-volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), and ammonia (NH₃) in China were estimated to be 19.2, 20.8, 9.1, 17.2 and 8.6 Mt, respectively, which accounted for 89.7%, 89.9%, 94.6%, 74.0%, and 80.2% of their total emissions in 2014, respectively. The associated control cost of such reductions was estimated as 92.5, 469.7, 75.7, 449.0, and 361.8 billion CNY in SO₂, NO_x, primary PM_2.5, NMVOCs and NH₃, respectively. Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan, Zhejiang, and Guangdong provinces exhibited large abatement potentials for all pollutants. Provincial disparity analysis shows that high GDP regions tend to have higher reduction potential and total abatement costs. End-of-pipe technologies tended be a cost-efficient way to control pollution in industries processes (i.e., cement plants, iron and steel plants, lime production, building ceramic production, glass and brick production), whereas such technologies were less cost-effective in fossil fuel-related sectors (i.e., power plants, industry combustion, domestic combustion, and transportation) compared with renewable energy. The abatement potentials and marginal abatement cost curves developed in this study can further be used as a crucial component in an integrated model to design optimized cost-efficient control policies.

SUBMITTER: Zhang F

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8336370 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundAir pollution disparities by socioeconomic status (SES) are well documented for the United States, with most literature indicating an inverse relationship (i.e., higher concentrations for lower-SES populations). Few studies exist for China, a country accounting for 26% of global premature deaths from ambient air pollution.ObjectiveOur objective was to test the relationship between ambient air pollution exposures and SES in China.MethodsWe combined estimated year 2015 annual-average ambient levels of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and fine particulate matter [PM ≤2.5μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5)] with national demographic information. Pollution estimates were derived from a national empirical model for China at 1-km spatial resolution; demographic estimates were derived from national gridded gross national product (GDP) per capita at 1-km resolution, and (separately) a national representative sample of 21,095 individuals from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) 2015 cohort. Our use of global data on population density and cohort data on where people live helped avoid the spatial imprecision found in publicly available census data for China. We quantified air pollution disparities among individual's rural-to-urban migration status; SES factors (education, occupation, and income); and minority status. We compared results using three approaches to SES measurement: individual SES score, community-averaged SES score, and gridded GDP per capita.ResultsAmbient NO2 and PM2.5 levels were higher for higher-SES populations than for lower-SES population, higher for long-standing urban residents than for rural-to-urban migrant populations, and higher for the majority ethnic group (Han) than for the average across nine minority groups. For the three SES measurements (individual SES score, community-averaged SES score, gridded GDP per capita), a 1-interquartile range higher SES corresponded to higher concentrations of 6-9 μg/m3 NO2 and 3-6 μg/m3 PM2.5; average concentrations for the highest and lowest 20th percentile of SES differed by 41-89% for NO2 and 12-25% for PM2.5. This pattern held in rural and urban locations, across geographic regions, across a wide range of spatial resolution, and for modeled vs. measured pollution concentrations.ConclusionsMultiple analyses here reveal that in China, ambient NO2 and PM2.5 concentrations are higher for high-SES than for low-SES individuals; these results are robust to multiple sensitivity analyses. Our findings are consistent with the idea that in China's current industrialization and urbanization stage, economic development is correlated with both SES and air pollution. To our knowledge, our study provides the most comprehensive picture to date of ambient air pollution disparities in China; the results differ dramatically from results and from theories to explain conditions in the United States. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9872.

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Estimation of abatement potentials and costs of air pollution emissions in China.

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