Epidemiological Trends and Hotspots of Other Infectious Diarrhea (OID) in Mainland China: A Population-Based Surveillance Study From 2004 to 2017.
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SUBMITTER: Chen C
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8339203 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundRespiratory infectious diseases (RIDs) remain a pressing public health concern, posing a significant threat to the well-being and lives of individuals. This study delves into the incidence of seven primary RIDs during the period 2017-2021, aiming to gain deeper insights into their epidemiological characteristics for the purpose of enhancing control and prevention strategies.MethodsData pertaining to seven notifiable RIDs, namely, seasonal influenza, pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB), mumps, scarlet fever, pertussis, rubella and measles, in the mainland of China between 2017 and 2021 were obtained from the National Notifiable Disease Reporting System (NNDRS). Joinpoint regression software was utilized to analyze temporal trends, while SaTScan software with a Poisson probability model was used to assess seasonal and spatial patterns.ResultsA total of 11,963,886 cases of the seven RIDs were reported during 2017-2021, and yielding a five-year average incidence rate of 170.73 per 100,000 individuals. Among these RIDs, seasonal influenza exhibited the highest average incidence rate (94.14 per 100,000), followed by PTB (55.52 per 100,000), mumps (15.16 per 100,000), scarlet fever (4.02 per 100,000), pertussis (1.10 per 100,000), rubella (0.59 per 100,000), and measles (0.21 per 100,000). Males experienced higher incidence rates across all seven RIDs. PTB incidence was notably elevated among farmers and individuals aged over 65, whereas the other RIDs primarily affected children and students under 15 years of age. The incidences of PTB and measles exhibited a declining trend from 2017 to 2021 (APC = -7.53%, P = 0.009; APC = -40.87%, P = 0.02), while the other five RIDs peaked in 2019. Concerning seasonal and spatial distribution, the seven RIDs displayed distinct characteristics, with variations observed for the same RIDs across different regions. The proportion of laboratory-confirmed cases fluctuated among the seven RIDs from 2017 to 2021, with measles and rubella exhibiting higher proportions and mumps and scarlet fever showing lower proportions.ConclusionsThe incidence of PTB and measles demonstrated a decrease in the mainland of China between 2017 and 2021, while the remaining five RIDs reached a peak in 2019. Overall, RIDs continue to pose a significant public health challenge. Urgent action is required to bolster capacity-building efforts and enhance control and prevention strategies for RIDs, taking into account regional disparities and epidemiological nuances. With the rapid advancement of high-tech solutions, the development and effective implementation of a digital/intelligent RIDs control and prevention system are imperative to facilitate precise surveillance, early warnings, and swift responses.
| S-EPMC10642048 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesThe aim of this study is to describe, visualize, and compare the trends and epidemiological features of the mortality rates of 10 notifiable respiratory infectious diseases in China from 2004 to 2020.SettingData were obtained from the database of the National Infectious Disease Surveillance System (NIDSS) and reports released by the National and local Health Commissions from 2004 to 2020. Spearman correlations and Joinpoint regression models were used to quantify the temporal trends of RIDs by calculating annual percentage changes (APCs) in the rates of mortality.ResultsThe overall mortality rate of RIDs was stable across China from 2004 to 2020 (R = -0.38, P = 0.13), with an APC per year of -2.2% (95% CI: -4.6 to 0.3; P = 0.1000). However, the overall mortality rate of 10 RIDs in 2020 decreased by 31.80% (P = 0.006) compared to the previous 5 years before the COVID-19 pandemic. The highest mortality occurred in northwestern, western, and northern China. Tuberculosis was the leading cause of RID mortality, and mortality from tuberculosis was relatively stable throughout the 17 years (R = -0.36, P = 0.16), with an APC of -1.9% (95% CI -4.1 to 0.4, P = 0.1000). Seasonal influenza was the only disease for which mortality significantly increased (R = 0.73, P = 0.00089), with an APC of 29.70% (95% CI 16.60-44.40%; P = 0.0000). The highest yearly case fatality ratios (CFR) belong to avian influenza A H5N1 [687.5 per 1,000 (33/48)] and epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis [90.5748 per 1,000 (1,010/11,151)]. The age-specific CFR of 10 RIDs was highest among people over 85 years old [13.6551 per 1,000 (2,353/172,316)] and was lowest among children younger than 10 years, particularly in 5-year-old children [0.0552 per 1,000 (58/1,051,178)].ConclusionsThe mortality rates of 10 RIDs were relatively stable from 2004 to 2020 with significant differences among Chinese provinces and age groups. There was an increased mortality trend for seasonal influenza and concerted efforts are needed to reduce the mortality rate of seasonal influenza in the future.
| S-EPMC9982089 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundInsecticide resistance is a serious threat to the continued effectiveness of insecticide-based malaria vector control measures, such as long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS). This paper describes trends and dynamics of insecticide resistance and its underlying mechanisms from annual resistance monitoring surveys on Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) populations conducted across mainland Tanzania from 2004 to 2020.MethodsThe World Health Organization (WHO) standard protocols were used to assess susceptibility of the wild female An. gambiae s.l. mosquitoes to insecticides, with mosquitoes exposed to diagnostic concentrations of permethrin, deltamethrin, lambdacyhalothrin, bendiocarb, and pirimiphos-methyl. WHO test papers at 5× and 10× the diagnostic concentrations were used to assess the intensity of resistance to pyrethroids; synergist tests using piperonyl butoxide (PBO) were carried out in sites where mosquitoes were found to be resistant to pyrethroids. To estimate insecticide resistance trends from 2004 to 2020, percentage mortalities from each site and time point were aggregated and regression analysis of mortality versus the Julian dates of bioassays was performed.ResultsPercentage of sites with pyrethroid resistance increased from 0% in 2004 to more than 80% in the 2020, suggesting resistance has been spreading geographically. Results indicate a strong negative association (p = 0.0001) between pyrethroids susceptibility status and survey year. The regression model shows that by 2020 over 40% of An. gambiae mosquitoes survived exposure to pyrethroids at their respective diagnostic doses. A decreasing trend of An. gambiae susceptibility to bendiocarb was observed over time, but this was not statistically significant (p = 0.8413). Anopheles gambiae exhibited high level of susceptibility to the pirimiphos-methyl in sampled sites.ConclusionsAnopheles gambiae Tanzania's major malaria vector, is now resistant to pyrethroids across the country with resistance increasing in prevalence and intensity and has been spreading geographically. This calls for urgent action for efficient malaria vector control tools to sustain the gains obtained in malaria control. Strengthening insecticide resistance monitoring is important for its management through evidence generation for effective malaria vector control decision.
| S-EPMC10024418 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAlthough visceral leishmaniasis (VL) was largely brought under control in most regions of China during the previous century, VL cases have rebounded in western and central China in recent decades. The aim of this study was to investigate the epidemiological features and spatial-temporal distribution of VL in mainland China from 2004 to 2019.MethodsIncidence and mortality data for VL during the period 2004-2019 were collected from the Public Health Sciences Data Center of China and annual national epidemic reports of VL, whose data source was the National Diseases Reporting Information System. Joinpoint regression analysis was performed to explore the trends of VL. Spatial autocorrelation and spatial-temporal clustering analysis were conducted to identify the distribution and risk areas of VL transmission.ResultsA total of 4877 VL cases were reported in mainland China during 2004-2019, with mean annual incidence of 0.0228/100,000. VL incidence showed a decreasing trend in general during our study period (annual percentage change [APC] = -4.2564, 95% confidence interval [CI]: -8.0856 to -0.2677). Among mainly endemic provinces, VL was initially heavily epidemic in Gansu, Sichuan, and especially Xinjiang, but subsequently decreased considerably. In contrast, Shaanxi and Shanxi witnessed significantly increasing trends, especially in 2017-2019. The first-level spatial-temporal aggregation area covered two endemic provinces in northwestern China, including Gansu and Xinjiang, with the gathering time from 2004 to 2011 (relative risk [RR] = 13.91, log-likelihood ratio [LLR] = 3308.87, P < 0.001). The secondary aggregation area was detected in Shanxi province of central China, with the gathering time of 2019 (RR = 1.61, LLR = 4.88, P = 0.041). The epidemic peak of October to November disappeared in 2018-2019, leaving only one peak in March to May.ConclusionsOur findings suggest that VL is still an important endemic infectious disease in China. Epidemic trends in different provinces changed significantly and spatial-temporal aggregation areas shifted from northwestern to central China during our study period. Mitigation strategies, including large-scale screening, insecticide spraying, and health education encouraging behavioral change, in combination with other integrated approaches, are needed to decrease transmission risk in areas at risk, especially in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Gansu provinces.
| S-EPMC8499449 | biostudies-literature
Project description:These guidelines are intended for use by healthcare professionals who care for children and adults with suspected or confirmed infectious diarrhea. They are not intended to replace physician judgement regarding specific patients or clinical or public health situations. This document does not provide detailed recommendations on infection prevention and control aspects related to infectious diarrhea.
| S-EPMC5850553 | biostudies-other
Project description:With the re-emergence of brucellosis in mainland China since the mid-1990s, an increasing threat to public health tends to become even more violent, advanced warning plays a pivotal role in the control of brucellosis. However, a model integrating the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) with Error-Trend-Seasonal (ETS) methods remains unexplored in the epidemiological prediction. The hybrid ARIMA-ETS model based on discrete wavelet transform was hence constructed to assess the epidemics of human brucellosis from January 2004 to February 2018 in mainland China. The preferred hybrid model including the best-performing ARIMA method for approximation-forecasting and the best-fitting ETS approach for detail-forecasting is evidently superior to the standard ARIMA and ETS techniques in both three in-sample simulating and out-of-sample forecasting horizons in terms of the minimum performance indices of the root mean square error, mean absolute error, mean error rate and mean absolute percentage error. Whereafter, an ahead prediction from March to December in 2018 displays a dropping trend compared to the preceding years. But being still present, in various trends, in the present or future. This hybrid model can be highlighted in predicting the temporal trends of human brucellosis, which may act as the potential for far-reaching implications for prevention and control of this disease.
| S-EPMC6203822 | biostudies-other
Project description:IntroductionThis study (1) provides annual population estimates of fatal and nonfatal injury incidence rates for older adults for 2004-2017; (2) determines if trends differ by whether the injury was fatal or nonfatal, a fall or nonfall injury, and for nonfatal injuries, minor or serious; and (3) investigates whether trends vary by age, sex, and race.MethodsThis study used National Vital Statistics System and National Health Interview Survey data covering the population of adults aged ≥65 years for 2004-2017. Fatal injury incidence rates were estimated using negative binomial models; nonfatal injury incidence rates were estimated using Poisson models. All models compared overall risk and trend differences by year, age, sex, and race, and interactions between year and age, sex, and race. All analyses were conducted in 2019.ResultsFatal injury incidence was stable over time, but this apparent stability masked a 35% increase in fatal falls and a 17% decrease in fatal nonfall injuries. Increases in fall-related deaths were concentrated among those aged ≥85 years, men, and white older adults. The trend in fatal falls accelerated over time for those aged ≥85 years and white older adults. By contrast, there was a large increase in nonfatal injury incidence, occurring across all injury types. Nonfatal injury risk grew with age and was higher for women and white older adults, but trends did not vary by age, sex, or race.ConclusionsLarge increases in fatal and nonfatal injuries underscore the urgency of national implementation of fall prevention programs and expanding fall prevention efforts to more general injury prevention.
| S-EPMC7311304 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe World Health Organization declared mpox an international public health emergency. Since January 1, 2022, China has been ranked among the top 10 countries most affected by the mpox outbreak globally. However, there is a lack of spatial epidemiological studies on mpox, which are crucial for accurately mapping the spatial distribution and clustering of the disease.ObjectiveThis study aims to provide geographically accurate visual evidence to determine priority areas for mpox prevention and control.MethodsLocally confirmed mpox cases were collected between June and November 2023 from 31 provinces of mainland China excluding Taiwan, Macao, and Hong Kong. Spatiotemporal epidemiological analyses, including spatial autocorrelation and regression analyses, were conducted to identify the spatiotemporal characteristics and clustering patterns of mpox attack rate and its spatial relationship with sociodemographic and socioeconomic factors.ResultsFrom June to November 2023, a total of 1610 locally confirmed mpox cases were reported in 30 provinces in mainland China, resulting in an attack rate of 11.40 per 10 million people. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that in July (Moran I=0.0938; P=.08), August (Moran I=0.1276; P=.08), and September (Moran I=0.0934; P=.07), the attack rates of mpox exhibited a clustered pattern and positive spatial autocorrelation. The Getis-Ord Gi* statistics identified hot spots of mpox attack rates in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Hainan. Beijing and Tianjin were consistent hot spots from June to October. No cold spots with low mpox attack rates were detected by the Getis-Ord Gi* statistics. Local Moran I statistics identified a high-high (HH) clustering of mpox attack rates in Guangdong, Beijing, and Tianjin. Guangdong province consistently exhibited HH clustering from June to November, while Beijing and Tianjin were identified as HH clusters from July to September. Low-low clusters were mainly located in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Xizang, Qinghai, and Gansu. Ordinary least squares regression models showed that the cumulative mpox attack rates were significantly and positively associated with the proportion of the urban population (t0.05/2,1=2.4041 P=.02), per capita gross domestic product (t0.05/2,1=2.6955; P=.01), per capita disposable income (t0.05/2,1=2.8303; P=.008), per capita consumption expenditure (PCCE; t0.05/2,1=2.7452; P=.01), and PCCE for health care (t0.05/2,1=2.5924; P=.01). The geographically weighted regression models indicated a positive association and spatial heterogeneity between cumulative mpox attack rates and the proportion of the urban population, per capita gross domestic product, per capita disposable income, and PCCE, with high R2 values in north and northeast China.ConclusionsHot spots and HH clustering of mpox attack rates identified by local spatial autocorrelation analysis should be considered key areas for precision prevention and control of mpox. Specifically, Guangdong, Beijing, and Tianjin provinces should be prioritized for mpox prevention and control. These findings provide geographically precise and visualized evidence to assist in identifying key areas for targeted prevention and control.
| S-EPMC11229661 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundWe used data released by the government to analyze the epidemiological distribution of pulmonary tuberculosis in mainland China from 2004 to 2015, in order to provide a deeper understanding of trends in the epidemiology of pulmonary tuberculosis in China and a theoretical basis to assess the effectiveness of government interventions and develop more targeted prevention and control strategies.MethodsA discrete dynamic model was designed based on the epidemiological characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis and fitted to data published by the government to estimate changes in indicators such as adequate contact rate, prevalence of non-treated pulmonary tuberculosis (abbreviated as prevalence), and infection rate. Finally, we performed sensitivity analyses of the effects of parameters on the population infection rate.ResultsThe epidemiological features of pulmonary tuberculosis in China include a pattern of seasonal fluctuations, with the highest rates of infection in autumn and winter. The adequate contact rate has increased slightly from an average of 0.12/month in 2010 to an average of 0.21/month in 2015. The prevalence in the population has continued to decrease from 3.4% in early 2004 to 1.7% in late 2015. The Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tuberculosis) infection rate in the population decreased gradually from 42.3% at the beginning of 2004 to 36.7% at the end of 2015. The actual number of new infections gradually decreased from 1,300,000/year in 2010 to 1,100,000/year in 2015. The actual number of new patients each year has been relatively stable since 2010 and remains at approximately 2,600,000/year.ConclusionsThe population prevalence and the M. tuberculosis infection rate have decreased year by year since 2004, indicating that the tuberculosis epidemic in China has been effectively controlled. However, pulmonary tuberculosis has become increasingly contagious since 2010. China should focus on the prevention and control of pulmonary tuberculosis during autumn and winter.
| S-EPMC6383277 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSleep problems in adolescence, such as insomnia and short sleep duration, are associated with physical and mental health problems. However, little is known about the recent trends in sleep problems among adolescents. Therefore, this study examined trends in sleep problems among Japanese adolescents.MethodsUsing data from the Lifestyle Survey of Adolescents collected in 2004 (n = 102,451), 2008 (n = 95,680), 2010 (n = 98,867), 2012 (n = 101,134), 2014 (n = 85,931), and 2017 (n = 64,417), we calculated the trends of insomnia, shorter sleep duration, late bedtimes, and poor sleep quality. Multivariable logistic regression analysis models were used to examine the association of each sleep problem and survey years.FindingsWe analyzed data from 545,285 Japanese adolescents. Results indicated that, since 2004, the odds ratio for insomnia have decreased (Adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 0•85, 95% CI 0•82-0•87), as have the odds ratio for poor sleep quality (AOR 0•92, 95% CI 0•88-0•95). However, the odds ratio for shorter sleep duration (AOR 1•13, 95% CI 1•10-1•17) and late bedtimes tended to increase (AOR 1•06, 95% CI 1•03-1•08) during this period.InterpretationThe prevalence of insomnia symptoms and poor sleep quality among adolescents decreased from 2004 to 2017. However, there were increasing trends toward shorter sleep duration and late bedtimes. These changes are both relieving and concerning. Teachers, parents, and health professionals should consider educating adolescents regarding sleep hygiene, adjusting schedules of extracurricular activities, and enhancing time management to improve their sleep quantity.FundingThis study received funding from Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare.
| S-EPMC8315371 | biostudies-literature