The effectiveness of backward contact tracing in networks.

ABSTRACT: Effective control of an epidemic relies on the rapid discovery and isolation of infected individuals. Because many infectious diseases spread through interaction, contact tracing is widely used to facilitate case discovery and control. However, what determines the efficacy of contact tracing has not been fully understood. Here we reveal that, compared with 'forward' tracing (tracing to whom disease spreads), 'backward' tracing (tracing from whom disease spreads) is profoundly more effective. The effectiveness of backward tracing is due to simple but overlooked biases arising from the heterogeneity in contacts. We argue that, even if the directionality of infection is unknown, it is possible to perform backward-aiming contact tracing. Using simulations on both synthetic and high-resolution

SUBMITTER: Kojaku S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8340850 | biostudies-literature | 2021 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature