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C-reactive protein predicts the development of walled-off necrosis in patients with severe acute pancreatitis.

ABSTRACT:

Background and aim

Walled-off necrosis (WON) is reported to occur in 1-9% of patients with acute pancreatitis. However, the factors associated with the onset of this condition have not been elucidated. This study aimed to investigate the potential predictive factors for WON in patients diagnosed with severe acute pancreatitis at our hospital.

Methods

This study included 26 patients with severe acute pancreatitis identified among the 211 patients with acute pancreatitis admitted to our hospital between January 2014 and December 2018. Patients with and without WON (WON and non-WON groups, respectively) were compared to identify potential factors involved in the onset of this condition.

Results

The 26 patients had a median age of 67 years, and 65% were male. WON occurred in 15 patients (57.7%). In a univariate analysis, the WON and non-WON groups differed significantly in terms of maximum C-reactive protein (CRP) levels (median) (322.7 mg/L vs 163.8 mg/L [P = 0.001]). In a multivariate analysis, a significant association was identified between the maximum CRP level and the onset of WON (odds ratio: 1.20, 95% confidence interval: 1.05-1.37). The CRP level peaked within 3 days in 88%.

Conclusion

The maximum CRP level was identified as a predictive factor for the onset of WON, and a high proportion of patients with WON exhibited elevated CRP levels within 3 days after diagnosis. This work suggests the clinical importance of continuous monitoring at an early stage after diagnosis to identify the maximum CRP level.

SUBMITTER: Fujiwara J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8341195 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:IntroductionSevere acute pancreatitis (AP) is associated with high morbidity and mortality. Early prediction of severe AP is needed to improve patient outcomes. The aim of the present study was to find novel cytokines or combinations of cytokines that can be used for the early identification of patients with AP at risk for severe disease.MethodsWe performed a prospective study of 163 nonconsecutive patients with AP, of whom 25 had severe AP according to the revised Atlanta criteria. Admission serum levels of 48 cytokines and growth factors were determined using Bio-Plex Pro Human Cytokine Assay 21-plex and 27-plex magnetic bead suspension panels. Admission plasma levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), creatinine and calcium were measured for comparison. In subgroup analyses, we assessed the cytokine profiles of patients with severe AP (n = 14) who did not have organ dysfunction (OD) upon admission (modified Marshall score <2).ResultsOf 14 cytokines elevated in the severe AP group, interleukin 6 (IL-6) and hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) levels were independent prognostic markers of severe AP. IL-6, HGF and a combination of them predicted severe AP with sensitivities of 56.0%, 60.0% and 72.0%, respectively, and specificities of 90.6%, 92.8% and 89.9%, respectively. The corresponding positive likelihood ratio (LR+) values were 5.9, 8.3 and 7.1, respectively. The predictive values of CRP, creatinine and calcium were comparable to those of the cytokines. In subgroup analyses of patients with severe AP and without OD upon admission, we found that IL-8, HGF and granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) levels predicted the development of severe AP, with G-CSF being the most accurate cytokine at a sensitivity of 35.7%, a specificity of 96.1% and a LR+ of 9.1.ConclusionsIL-6 and HGF levels upon admission have prognostic value for severe AP which is similar to levels of CRP, creatinine and calcium. Although IL-6 and HGF, as either single or combined markers, were not perfect in identifying patients at risk for severe AP, the possibility that combining them with novel prognostic markers other than cytokines might improve prognostic accuracy needs to be studied. The accuracy of IL-8, HGF and G-CSF levels in predicting severe AP in patients without clinical signs of OD upon admission warrants larger studies.