Cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccination in Puerto Rico.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Espana G
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8341694 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:We modeled the potential cost-effectiveness of increasing access to contraception in Puerto Rico during a Zika virus outbreak. The intervention is projected to cost an additional $33.5 million in family planning services and is likely to be cost-saving for the healthcare system overall. It could reduce Zika virus-related costs by $65.2 million ($2.8 million from less Zika virus testing and monitoring and $62.3 million from avoided costs of Zika virus-associated microcephaly [ZAM]). The estimates are influenced by the contraception methods used, the frequency of ZAM, and the lifetime incremental cost of ZAM. Accounting for unwanted pregnancies that are prevented, irrespective of Zika virus infection, an additional $40.4 million in medical costs would be avoided through the intervention. Increasing contraceptive access for women who want to delay or avoid pregnancy in Puerto Rico during a Zika virus outbreak can substantially reduce the number of cases of ZAM and healthcare costs.
| S-EPMC5176229 | biostudies-literature
Project description:AbstractThe first approved dengue vaccine, CYD-TDV, a chimeric, live-attenuated, tetravalent dengue virus vaccine, was recently licensed in 13 countries, including Brazil. In light of recent vaccine approval, we modeled the cost-effectiveness of potential vaccination policies mathematically based on data from recent vaccine efficacy trials that indicated that vaccine efficacy was lower in seronegative individuals than in seropositive individuals. In our analysis, we investigated several vaccination programs, including routine vaccination, with various vaccine coverage levels and those with and without large catch-up campaigns. As it is unclear whether the vaccine protects against infection or just against disease, our model incorporated both direct and indirect effects of vaccination. We found that in the presence of vaccine-induced indirect protection, the cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccination decreased with increasing vaccine coverage levels because the marginal returns of herd immunity decreases with vaccine coverage. All routine dengue vaccination programs that we considered were cost-effective, reducing dengue incidence significantly. Specifically, a routine dengue vaccination of 9-year-olds would be cost-effective when the cost of vaccination per individual is less than $262. Furthermore, the combination of routine vaccination and large catch-up campaigns resulted in a greater reduction of dengue burden (by up to 93%) than routine vaccination alone, making it a cost-effective intervention as long as the cost per course of vaccination is $255 or less. Our results show that dengue vaccination would be cost-effective in Brazil even with a relatively low vaccine efficacy in seronegative individuals.
| S-EPMC5417221 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral illness that causes a variety of health outcomes, from a mild acute febrile illness to potentially fatal severe dengue. Between 2005 and 2010, the annual number of suspected dengue cases reported to the Passive Dengue Surveillance System (PDSS) in Puerto Rico ranged from 2,346 in 2006 to 22,496 in 2010. Like other passive surveillance systems, PDSS is subject to under-reporting. To estimate the degree of under-reporting in Puerto Rico, we built separate inpatient and outpatient probability-based multiplier models, using data from two different surveillance systems-PDSS and the enhanced dengue surveillance system (EDSS). We adjusted reported cases to account for sensitivity of diagnostic tests, specimens with indeterminate results, and differences between PDSS and EDSS in numbers of reported dengue cases. In addition, for outpatients, we adjusted for the fact that less than 100% of medical providers submit diagnostic specimens from suspected cases. We estimated that a multiplication factor of between 5 (for 2010 data) to 9 (for 2006 data) must be used to correct for the under-reporting of the number of laboratory-positive dengue inpatients. Multiplication factors of between 21 (for 2010 data) to 115 (for 2008 data) must be used to correct for the under-reporting of laboratory-positive dengue outpatients. We also estimated that, after correcting for underreporting, the mean annual rate, for 2005-2010, of medically attended dengue in Puerto Rico to be between 2.1 (for dengue inpatients) to 7.8 (for dengue outpatients) per 1,000 population. These estimated rates compare to the reported rates of 0.4 (dengue outpatients) to 0.1 (dengue inpatients) per 1,000 population. The multipliers, while subject to limitations, will help public health officials correct for underreporting of dengue cases, and thus better evaluate the cost-and-benefits of possible interventions.
| S-EPMC6095627 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Dengue was first reported in Puerto Rico in 1899 and sporadically thereafter. Following outbreaks in 1963 and 1969, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has worked closely with the Puerto Rico Department of Health to monitor and reduce the public health burden of dengue. During that time, evolving epidemiologic scenarios have provided opportunities to establish, improve, and expand disease surveillance and interventional research projects. These initiatives have enriched the tools available to the global public health community to understand and combat dengue, including diagnostic tests, methods for disease and vector surveillance, and vector control techniques. Our review serves as a guide to organizations seeking to establish dengue surveillance and research programs by highlighting accomplishments, challenges, and lessons learned during more than a century of dengue surveillance and research conducted in Puerto Rico.
| S-EPMC6649339 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe incidence and severity of dengue in Latin America has increased substantially in recent decades and data from Puerto Rico suggests an increase in severe cases. Successful clinical management of severe dengue requires early recognition and supportive care.MethodsFatal cases were identified among suspected dengue cases reported to two disease surveillance systems and from death certificates. To be included, fatal cases had to have specimen submitted for dengue diagnostic testing including nucleic acid amplification for dengue virus (DENV) in serum or tissue, immunohistochemical testing of tissue, and immunoassay detection of anti-DENV IgM from serum. Medical records from laboratory-positive dengue fatal case-patients were reviewed to identify possible determinants for death.ResultsAmong 10,576 reported dengue cases, 40 suspect fatal cases were identified, of which 11 were laboratory-positive, 14 were laboratory-negative, and 15 laboratory-indeterminate. The median age of laboratory-positive case-patients was 26 years (range 5 months to 78 years), including five children aged < 15 years; 7 sought medical care at least once prior to hospital admission, 9 were admitted to hospital and 2 died upon arrival. The nine hospitalized case-patients stayed a mean of 15 hours (range: 3-48 hours) in the emergency department (ED) before inpatient admission. Five of the nine case-patients received intravenous methylprednisolone and four received non-isotonic saline while in shock. Eight case-patients died in the hospital; five had their terminal event on the inpatient ward and six died during a weekend. Dengue was listed on the death certificate in only 5 instances.ConclusionsDuring a dengue epidemic in an endemic area, none of the 11 laboratory-positive case-patients who died were managed according to current WHO Guidelines. Management issues identified in this case-series included failure to recognize warning signs for severe dengue and shock, prolonged ED stays, and infrequent patient monitoring.
| S-EPMC3328431 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The four dengue viruses, the agents of dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever in humans, are transmitted predominantly by the mosquito Aedes aegypti. The abundance and the transmission potential of Ae. aegypti are influenced by temperature and precipitation. While there is strong biological evidence for these effects, empirical studies of the relationship between climate and dengue incidence in human populations are potentially confounded by seasonal covariation and spatial heterogeneity. Using 20 years of data and a statistical approach to control for seasonality, we show a positive and statistically significant association between monthly changes in temperature and precipitation and monthly changes in dengue transmission in Puerto Rico. We also found that the strength of this association varies spatially, that this variation is associated with differences in local climate, and that this relationship is consistent with laboratory studies of the impacts of these factors on vector survival and viral replication. These results suggest the importance of temperature and precipitation in the transmission of dengue viruses and suggest a reason for their spatial heterogeneity. Thus, while dengue transmission may have a general system, its manifestation on a local scale may differ from global expectations.
| S-EPMC2637540 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPredictive models can serve as early warning systems and can be used to forecast future risk of various infectious diseases. Conventionally, regression and time series models are used to forecast dengue incidence, using dengue surveillance (e.g., case counts) and weather data. However, these models may be limited in terms of model assumptions and the number of predictors that can be included. Machine learning (ML) methods are designed to work with a large number of predictors and thus offer an appealing alternative. Here, we compared the performance of ML algorithms with that of regression models in predicting dengue cases and outbreaks from 4 to up to 12 weeks in advance. Many countries lack sufficient health surveillance infrastructure, as such we evaluated the contribution of dengue surveillance and weather data on the predictive power of these models.MethodsWe developed ML, regression, and time series models to forecast weekly dengue case counts and outbreaks in Iquitos, Peru; San Juan, Puerto Rico; and Singapore from 1990-2016. Forecasts were generated using available weekly dengue surveillance, and weather data. We evaluated the agreement between model forecasts and actual dengue observations using Mean Absolute Error and Matthew's Correlation Coefficient (MCC).ResultsFor near term predictions of weekly case counts and when using surveillance data, ML models had 21% and 33% less error than regression and time series models respectively. However, using weather data only, ML models did not demonstrate a practical advantage. When forecasting weekly dengue outbreaks 12 weeks in advance, ML models achieved a maximum MCC of 0.61.ConclusionsOur results identified 2 scenarios when ML models are advantageous over regression model: 1) predicting dengue weekly case counts 4 weeks ahead when dengue surveillance data are available and 2) predicting weekly dengue outbreaks 12 weeks ahead when dengue surveillance data are unavailable. Given the advantages of ML models, dengue early warning systems may be improved by the inclusion of these models.
| S-EPMC7567393 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Dengue, a mosquito-borne viral illness caused by dengue virus types (DENV)-1 to DENV-4, is endemic in Puerto Rico. Severe dengue usually occurs in individuals previously infected with DENV or among infants born to previously infected mothers. To describe clinical features of dengue in infants, we retrospectively characterized dengue patients aged < 18 months reported to the Passive Dengue Surveillance System (PDSS) during 1999-2011. To determine frequency of signs, symptoms, and disease severity, case report forms and medical records were evaluated for patients who tested positive for dengue by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction or anti-DENV immunoglobulin Menzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Of 4,178 reported patients aged < 18 months, 813 (19%) were laboratory positive. Of these, most had fever (92%), rash (53%), bleeding manifestations (52%), and thrombocytopenia (52%). Medical records were available for 145 (31%) of 472 hospitalized patients, of which 40% had dengue, 23% had dengue with warning signs, and 33% had severe dengue. Mean age of patients with severe dengue was 8 months. Anti-DENV immunoglobulin G (IgG) titers were not statistically different in patients with (50%) and without (59%) severe dengue. In this study, one-third of DENV-infected infants met the severe dengue case definition. The role of maternal anti-DENV IgG in development of severe disease warrants further study in prospective cohorts of mother-infant pairs.
| S-EPMC4751950 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe incidence of dengue fever (DF) is steadily increasing in Mexico, burdening health systems with consequent morbidities and mortalities. On December 9th, 2015, Mexico became the first country for which the dengue vaccine was approved for use. In anticipation of a vaccine rollout, analysis of the cost-effectiveness of the dengue vaccination program that quantifies the dynamics of disease transmission is essential.MethodsWe developed a dynamic transmission model of dengue in Yucatán, Mexico and its proposed vaccination program to incorporate herd immunity into our analysis of cost-effectiveness analysis. Our model also incorporates important characteristics of dengue epidemiology, such as clinical cross-immunity and susceptibility enhancement upon secondary infection. Using our model, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness and economic impact of an imperfect dengue vaccine in Yucatán, Mexico.ConclusionsOur study indicates that a dengue vaccination program would prevent 90% of cases of symptomatic DF incidence as well as 90% of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) incidence and dengue-related deaths annually. We conclude that a dengue vaccine program in Yucatán, Mexico would be very cost-effective as long as the vaccination cost per individual is less than $140 and $214 from health care and societal perspectives, respectively. Furthermore, at an exemplary vaccination cost of $250 USD per individual on average, dengue vaccination is likely to be cost-effective 43% and 88% of the time from health care and societal perspectives, respectively.
| S-EPMC5381893 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Despite the fact that the incidence and mortality rates due to dengue virus (DENV) infection in Indonesia are relatively high, dengue vaccination has not yet been introduced. This study aimed to analyse the cost-effectiveness and the budget impact of dengue vaccination in Indonesia by taking the potential of pre-vaccination screening into account. An age-structured decision tree model was developed to assess the cost-effectiveness value by applying a single cohort of 4,710,100 children that was followed-up in a 10-year time horizon within a 1-year analytical cycle. The budget impact was analysed in a 5-year period (2020-2024) by considering provinces' readiness to introduce dengue vaccine and their incidence rate of DENV infection in the last 10 years. Vaccination that was coupled with pre-vaccination screening would reduce dengue fever (DF), dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF) and dengue shock syndrome (DSS) by 188,142, 148,089 and 426 cases, respectively. It would save treatment cost at $23,433,695 and $14,091,642 from the healthcare and payer perspective, respectively. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) would be $5,733 and $5,791 per quality-adjusted-life-year (QALY) gained from both perspectives. The most influential parameters affecting the ICERs were probability of DENV infection, vaccine efficacy, under-reporting factor, vaccine price, case fatality rate and screening cost. It can be concluded that dengue vaccination and pre-vaccination screening would be cost-effective to be implemented in Indonesia. Nevertheless, it seems unaffordable to be implemented since the total required cost for the nationwide vaccination would be 94.44% of routine immunization budget.
| S-EPMC8384188 | biostudies-literature