Machine learning risk prediction of mortality for patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2: the COVIDSurg mortality score.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: COVIDSurg Collaborative
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8344569 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Nov
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Machine learning risk prediction of mortality for patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2: the COVIDSurg mortality score.
The British journal of surgery 20211101 11
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Project description:BackgroundMitral valve surgery (MVS) is an effective treatment for mitral valve diseases. There is a lack of reliable personalized risk prediction models for mortality in patients undergoing mitral valve surgery. Our aim was to develop a risk stratification system to predict all-cause mortality in patients after mitral valve surgery.MethodsDifferent machine learning models for the prediction of all-cause mortality were trained on a derivation cohort of 1,883 patients undergoing mitral valve surgery [split into a training cohort (70%) and internal validation cohort (30%)] to predict all-cause mortality. Forty-five clinical variables routinely evaluated at discharge were used to train the models. The best performance model (PRIME score) was tested in an externally validated cohort of 220 patients undergoing mitral valve surgery. The model performance was evaluated according to the area under the curve (AUC). Net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were compared with existing risk strategies.ResultsAfter a median follow-up of 2 years, there were 133 (7.063%) deaths in the derivation cohort and 17 (7.727%) deaths in the validation cohort. The PRIME score showed an AUC of 0.902 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.849-0.956) in the internal validation cohort and 0.873 (95% CI: 0.769-0.977) in the external validation cohort. In the external validation cohort, the performance of the PRIME score was significantly improved compared with that of the existing EuroSCORE II (NRI = 0.550, [95% CI 0.001-1.099], P = 0.049, IDI = 0.485, [95% CI 0.230-0.741], P < 0.001).ConclusionMachine learning-based model (the PRIME score) that integrate clinical, demographic, imaging, and laboratory features demonstrated superior performance for the prediction of mortality patients after mitral valve surgery compared with the traditional risk model EuroSCORE II.Clinical trial registration[http://www.clinicaltrials.gov], identifier [NCT05141292].
| S-EPMC9010531 | biostudies-literature
Project description:AimsOur aim was to develop a machine learning (ML)-based risk stratification system to predict 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-year all-cause mortality from pre-implant parameters of patients undergoing cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT).Methods and resultsMultiple ML models were trained on a retrospective database of 1510 patients undergoing CRT implantation to predict 1- to 5-year all-cause mortality. Thirty-three pre-implant clinical features were selected to train the models. The best performing model [SEMMELWEIS-CRT score (perSonalizEd assessMent of estiMatEd risk of mortaLity With machinE learnIng in patientS undergoing CRT implantation)], along with pre-existing scores (Seattle Heart Failure Model, VALID-CRT, EAARN, ScREEN, and CRT-score), was tested on an independent cohort of 158 patients. There were 805 (53%) deaths in the training cohort and 80 (51%) deaths in the test cohort during the 5-year follow-up period. Among the trained classifiers, random forest demonstrated the best performance. For the prediction of 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-year mortality, the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of the SEMMELWEIS-CRT score were 0.768 (95% CI: 0.674-0.861; P < 0.001), 0.793 (95% CI: 0.718-0.867; P < 0.001), 0.785 (95% CI: 0.711-0.859; P < 0.001), 0.776 (95% CI: 0.703-0.849; P < 0.001), and 0.803 (95% CI: 0.733-0.872; P < 0.001), respectively. The discriminative ability of our model was superior to other evaluated scores.ConclusionThe SEMMELWEIS-CRT score (available at semmelweiscrtscore.com) exhibited good discriminative capabilities for the prediction of all-cause death in CRT patients and outperformed the already existing risk scores. By capturing the non-linear association of predictors, the utilization of ML approaches may facilitate optimal candidate selection and prognostication of patients undergoing CRT implantation.
| S-EPMC7205468 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundMachine learning (ML) has shown promising results in all fields of medicine, including preventive cardiology. Hypertensive patients are at higher risk of mortality after coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery; thus, we aimed to design and evaluate five ML models to predict 1-year mortality among hypertensive patients who underwent CABG.HyothesisML algorithms can significantly improve mortality prediction after CABG.MethodsTehran Heart Center's CABG data registry was used to extract several baseline and peri-procedural characteristics and mortality data. The best features were chosen using random forest (RF) feature selection algorithm. Five ML models were developed to predict 1-year mortality: logistic regression (LR), RF, artificial neural network (ANN), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and naïve Bayes (NB). The area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity were used to evaluate the models.ResultsAmong the 8,493 hypertensive patients who underwent CABG (mean age of 68.27 ± 9.27 years), 303 died in the first year. Eleven features were selected as the best predictors, among which total ventilation hours and ejection fraction were the leading ones. LR showed the best prediction ability with an AUC of 0.82, while the least AUC was for the NB model (0.79). Among the subgroups, the highest AUC for LR model was for two age range groups (50-59 and 80-89 years), overweight, diabetic, and smoker subgroups of hypertensive patients.ConclusionsAll ML models had excellent performance in predicting 1-year mortality among CABG hypertension patients, while LR was the best regarding AUC. These models can help clinicians assess the risk of mortality in specific subgroups at higher risk (such as hypertensive ones).
| S-EPMC10018097 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on postoperative recovery needs to be understood to inform clinical decision making during and after the COVID-19 pandemic. This study reports 30-day mortality and pulmonary complication rates in patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection.MethodsThis international, multicentre, cohort study at 235 hospitals in 24 countries included all patients undergoing surgery who had SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed within 7 days before or 30 days after surgery. The primary outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality and was assessed in all enrolled patients. The main secondary outcome measure was pulmonary complications, defined as pneumonia, acute respiratory distress syndrome, or unexpected postoperative ventilation.FindingsThis analysis includes 1128 patients who had surgery between Jan 1 and March 31, 2020, of whom 835 (74·0%) had emergency surgery and 280 (24·8%) had elective surgery. SARS-CoV-2 infection was confirmed preoperatively in 294 (26·1%) patients. 30-day mortality was 23·8% (268 of 1128). Pulmonary complications occurred in 577 (51·2%) of 1128 patients; 30-day mortality in these patients was 38·0% (219 of 577), accounting for 81·7% (219 of 268) of all deaths. In adjusted analyses, 30-day mortality was associated with male sex (odds ratio 1·75 [95% CI 1·28-2·40], p<0·0001), age 70 years or older versus younger than 70 years (2·30 [1·65-3·22], p<0·0001), American Society of Anesthesiologists grades 3-5 versus grades 1-2 (2·35 [1·57-3·53], p<0·0001), malignant versus benign or obstetric diagnosis (1·55 [1·01-2·39], p=0·046), emergency versus elective surgery (1·67 [1·06-2·63], p=0·026), and major versus minor surgery (1·52 [1·01-2·31], p=0·047).InterpretationPostoperative pulmonary complications occur in half of patients with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection and are associated with high mortality. Thresholds for surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic should be higher than during normal practice, particularly in men aged 70 years and older. Consideration should be given for postponing non-urgent procedures and promoting non-operative treatment to delay or avoid the need for surgery.FundingNational Institute for Health Research (NIHR), Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland, Bowel and Cancer Research, Bowel Disease Research Foundation, Association of Upper Gastrointestinal Surgeons, British Association of Surgical Oncology, British Gynaecological Cancer Society, European Society of Coloproctology, NIHR Academy, Sarcoma UK, Vascular Society for Great Britain and Ireland, and Yorkshire Cancer Research.
| S-EPMC7259900 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe stress hyperglycemia ratio (SHR) was developed to reduce the effects of long-term chronic glycemic factors on stress hyperglycemia levels, which was associated with adverse clinical outcomes. This study aims to evaluate the relationship between the postoperative SHR index and all-cause mortality in patients undergoing cardiac surgery.MethodsData for this study were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) database. Patients were categorized into four groups based on postoperative SHR index quartiles. The primary outcome was 30-day all-cause mortality, while the secondary outcomes included in-hospital, 90-day and 360-day all-cause mortality. The SHR index was analyzed using quartiles, and Kaplan-Meier curves were generated to compare outcomes across groups. Cox proportional hazards regression and restricted cubic splines (RCS) were employed to assess the relationship between the SHR index and the outcomes. LASSO regression was used for feature selection. Six machine learning algorithms were used to predict in-hospital all-cause mortality and were further extended to predict 360-day all-cause mortality. The SHapley Additive exPlanations method was used for visualizing model characteristics and individual case predictions.ResultsA total of 3,848 participants were included in the study, with a mean age of 68 ± 12 years and female participants comprised 30.6% (1,179). Higher postoperative SHR index levels were associated with an increased risk of in-hospital, 90-day and 360-day all-cause mortality as shown by Kaplan-Meier curves (log-rank P < 0.05). Cox regression analysis revealed that the highest postoperative SHR quartile was associated with a significantly higher risk of mortality at these time points (P < 0.05). RCS analysis demonstrated nonlinear relationships between the postoperative SHR index and all-cause mortality (P for nonlinear < 0.05). The Naive Bayes model achieves the highest area under the curve (AUC) for predicting both in-hospital mortality (0.7936) and 360-day all-cause mortality (0.7410).ConclusionIn patients undergoing cardiac surgery, higher postoperative SHR index levels were significantly associated with increased risk of in-hospital, 90-day and 360-day all-cause mortality. The SHR index may serve as a valid tool for assessing the severity after cardiac surgery and guiding treatment decisions.
| S-EPMC11829518 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesA study of the performance of in-hospital/30-day mortality risk prediction models using an alternative machine learning algorithm (XGBoost) in adults undergoing cardiac surgery.MethodsRetrospective analyses of prospectively routinely collected data on adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery in the UK from January 2012 to March 2019. Data were temporally split 70:30 into training and validation subsets. Independent mortality prediction models were created using sequential backward floating selection starting with 61 variables. Assessments of discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility of the resultant XGBoost model with 23 variables were then conducted.ResultsA total of 224,318 adults underwent cardiac surgery during the study period with a 2.76% (N = 6,100) mortality. In the testing cohort, there was good discrimination (area under the receiver operator curve 0.846, F1 0.277) and calibration (especially in high-risk patients). Decision curve analysis showed XGBoost-23 had a net benefit till a threshold probability of 60%. The most important variables were the type of operation, age, creatinine clearance, urgency of the procedure and the New York Heart Association score.ConclusionsFeature-selected XGBoost showed good discrimination, calibration and clinical benefit when predicting mortality post-cardiac surgery. Prospective external validation of a XGBoost-derived model performance is warranted.
| S-EPMC11522872 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Patients affected by SARS-COV-2 have collapsed healthcare systems around the world. Consequently, different challenges arise regarding the prediction of hospital needs, optimization of resources, diagnostic triage tools and patient evolution, as well as tools that allow us to analyze which are the factors that determine the severity of patients. Currently, it is widely accepted that one of the problems since the pandemic appeared was to detect (i) who patients were about to need Intensive Care Unit (ICU) and (ii) who ones were about not overcome the disease. These critical patients collapsed Hospitals to the point that many surgeries around the world had to be cancelled. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to provide a Machine Learning (ML) model that helps us to prevent when a patient is about to be critical. Although we are in the era of data, regarding the SARS-COV-2 patients, there are currently few tools and solutions that help medical professionals to predict the evolution of patients in order to improve their treatment and the needs of critical resources at hospitals. Moreover, most of these tools have been created from small populations and/or Chinese populations, which carries a high risk of bias. In this paper, we present a model, based on ML techniques, based on 5378 Spanish patients' data from which a quality cohort of 1201 was extracted to train the model. Our model is capable of predicting the probability of death of patients with SARS-COV-2 based on age, sex and comorbidities of the patient. It also allows what-if analysis, with the inclusion of comorbidities that the patient may develop during the SARS-COV-2 infection. For the training of the model, we have followed an agnostic approach. We explored all the active comorbidities during the SARS-COV-2 infection of the patients with the objective that the model weights the effect of each comorbidity on the patient's evolution according to the data available. The model has been validated by using stratified cross-validation with k = 5 to prevent class imbalance. We obtained robust results, presenting a high hit rate, with 84.16% accuracy, 83.33% sensitivity, and an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.871. The main advantage of our model, in addition to its high success rate, is that it can be used with medical records in order to predict their diagnosis, allowing the critical population to be identified in advance. Furthermore, it uses the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD 9-CM) standard. In this sense, we should also emphasize that those hospitals using other encodings can add an intermediate layer business to business (B2B) with the aim of making transformations to the same international format.
| S-EPMC8986770 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Gene expression profiles were generated from 199 primary breast cancer patients. Samples 1-176 were used in another study, GEO Series GSE22820, and form the training data set in this study. Sample numbers 200-222 form a validation set. This data is used to model a machine learning classifier for Estrogen Receptor Status. RNA was isolated from 199 primary breast cancer patients. A machine learning classifier was built to predict ER status using only three gene features.
2013-01-01 | E-GEOD-29210 | biostudies-arrayexpress
Project description:ObjectiveThis study retrospectively investigated the effect of dexmedetomidine on outcomes of patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery.DesignRetrospective investigation.SettingPatients from a single tertiary medical center.ParticipantsA total of 724 patients undergoing CABG surgery met the inclusion criteria and were categorized into 2 groups: 345 in the dexmedetomidine group (DEX) and 379 in the nondexmedetomidine group (Non-DEX).InterventionsPerioperative dexmedetomidine was used as an intravenous infusion (0.24 to 0.6 µg/kg/hour) initiated after cardiopulmonary bypass and continued for less than 24 hours postoperatively in the intensive care unit.Measurements and main resultsMajor outcome measures of this study were in-hospital, 30-day and 1-year all-cause mortality, delirium and major adverse cardiocerebral events. Perioperative dexmedetomidine infusion was associated with significant reductions in in-hospital, 30-day, and 1-year mortalities, compared with the patients who did not received dexmedetomidine. In-hospital, 30-day, and 1-year mortalities were 1.5% and 4.0% (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 0.332; 95% CI, 0.155 to 0.708; p = 0.0044), 2.0% and 4.5% (adjusted OR, 0.487; 95% CI, 0.253 to 0.985; p = 0.0305), and 3.2% and 6.9% (adjusted OR 0.421; 95% CI, 0.247 to 0.718, p = 0.0015), respectively. Perioperative dexmedetomidine infusion was associated with a reduced risk of delirium from 7.9% to 4.6% (adjusted OR, 0.431; 95% CI, 0.265-0.701; p = 0.0007).ConclusionDexmedetomidine infusion during CABG surgery was more likely to achieve improved in-hospital, 30-day, and 1-year survival rates, and a significantly lower incidence of delirium.
| S-EPMC4402998 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Antigenic peptides (APs), also known as T-cell epitopes (TCEs), represent the immunogenic segment of pathogens capable of inducing an immune response, making them potential candidates for epitope-based vaccine (EBV) design. Traditional wet lab methods for identifying TCEs are expensive, challenging, and time-consuming. Alternatively, computational approaches employing machine learning (ML) techniques offer a faster and more cost-effective solution. In this study, we present a robust XGBoost ML model for predicting TCEs of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus as potential vaccine candidates. The peptide sequences comprising TCEs and non-TCEs retrieved from Immune Epitope Database Repository (IEDB) were subjected to feature extraction process to extract their physicochemical properties for model training. Upon evaluation using a test dataset, the model achieved an impressive accuracy of 97.6%, outperforming other ML classifiers. Employing a five-fold cross-validation a mean accuracy of 97.58% was recorded, indicating consistent and linear performance across all iterations. While the predicted epitopes show promise as vaccine candidates for SARS-CoV-2, further scientific examination through in vivo and in vitro studies is essential to validate their suitability.
| S-EPMC11623221 | biostudies-literature