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A prediction method of fire frequency: Based on the optimization of SARIMA model.

ABSTRACT: In the current study, based on the national fire statistics from 2003 to 2017, we analyzed the 24-hour occurrence regularity of fire in China to study the occurrence regularity and influencing factors of fire and provide a reference for scientific and effective fire prevention. The results show that the frequency of fire is low from 0 to 6 at night, accounting for about 13.48%, but the death toll due to fire is relatively high, accounting for about 39.90%. Considering the strong seasonal characteristics of the time series of monthly fire frequency, the SARIMA model predicts the fire frequency. According to the characteristics of time series data and prediction results, an optimized Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (SARIMA) model based on Quantile outlier detection method and similar mean interpolation method is proposed, and finally, the optimal model is constructed as SARIMA (1,1,1) (1,1,1) 12 for prediction. The results show that: according to the optimized SARIMA model to predict the number of fires in 2018 and 2019, the root mean square error of the fitting results is 2826.93, which is less than that of the SARIMA model, indicating that the improved SARIMA model has a better fitting effect. The accuracy of the results is increased by 11.5%. These findings verified that the optimized SARIMA model is an effective improvement for the series with quantile outliers, and it is more suitable for the data prediction with seasonal characteristics. The research results can better mine the law of fire aggregation and provide theoretical support for fire prevention and control work of the fire department.

SUBMITTER: Ma S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8352067 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundMachine learning based miRNA-target prediction algorithms often fail to obtain a balanced prediction accuracy in terms of both sensitivity and specificity due to lack of the gold standard of negative examples, miRNA-targeting site context specific relevant features and efficient feature selection process. Moreover, all the sequence, structure and machine learning based algorithms are unable to distribute the true positive predictions preferentially at the top of the ranked list; hence the algorithms become unreliable to the biologists. In addition, these algorithms fail to obtain considerable combination of precision and recall for the target transcripts that are translationally repressed at protein level.Methodology/principal findingIn the proposed article, we introduce an efficient miRNA-target prediction system MultiMiTar, a Support Vector Machine (SVM) based classifier integrated with a multiobjective metaheuristic based feature selection technique. The robust performance of the proposed method is mainly the result of using high quality negative examples and selection of biologically relevant miRNA-targeting site context specific features. The features are selected by using a novel feature selection technique AMOSA-SVM, that integrates the multi objective optimization technique Archived Multi-Objective Simulated Annealing (AMOSA) and SVM.Conclusions/significanceMultiMiTar is found to achieve much higher Matthew's correlation coefficient (MCC) of 0.583 and average class-wise accuracy (ACA) of 0.8 compared to the others target prediction methods for a completely independent test data set. The obtained MCC and ACA values of these algorithms range from -0.269 to 0.155 and 0.321 to 0.582, respectively. Moreover, it shows a more balanced result in terms of precision and sensitivity (recall) for the translationally repressed data set as compared to all the other existing methods. An important aspect is that the true positive predictions are distributed preferentially at the top of the ranked list that makes MultiMiTar reliable for the biologists. MultiMiTar is now available as an online tool at www.isical.ac.in/~bioinfo_miu/multimitar.htm. MultiMiTar software can be downloaded from www.isical.ac.in/~bioinfo_miu/multimitar-download.htm.

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A prediction method of fire frequency: Based on the optimization of SARIMA model.

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