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Tsunami generation potential of a strike-slip fault tip in the westernmost Mediterranean.

ABSTRACT: Tsunamis are triggered by sudden seafloor displacements, and usually originate from seismic activity at faults. Nevertheless, strike-slip faults are usually disregarded as major triggers, as they are thought to be capable of generating only moderate seafloor deformation; accordingly, the tsunamigenic potential of the vertical throw at the tips of strike-slip faults is not thought to be significant. We found the active dextral NW-SE Averroes Fault in the central Alboran Sea (westernmost Mediterranean) has a historical vertical throw of up to 5.4 m at its northwestern tip corresponding to an earthquake of Mw 7.0. We modelled the tsunamigenic potential of this seafloor deformation by Tsunami-HySEA software using the Coulomb 3.3 code. Waves propagating on two main branches reach highly populated sectors of the Iberian coast with maximum arrival heights of 6 m within 21 and 35 min, which is too quick for current early-warning systems to operate successfully. These findings suggest that the tsunamigenic potential of strike-slip faults is more important than previously thought, and should be taken into account for the re-evaluation of tsunami early-warning systems.

SUBMITTER: Estrada F

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8355334 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Anatomy of strike-slip fault tsunami genesis.

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Fast Holocene slip and localized strain along the Liquine-Ofqui strike-slip fault system, Chile.

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Near-trench slip potential of megaquakes evaluated from fault properties and conditions.

Project description:Near-trench slip during large megathrust earthquakes (megaquakes) is an important factor in the generation of destructive tsunamis. We proposed a new approach to assessing the near-trench slip potential quantitatively by integrating laboratory-derived properties of fault materials and simulations of fault weakening and rupture propagation. Although the permeability of the sandy Nankai Trough materials are higher than that of the clayey materials from the Japan Trench, dynamic weakening by thermally pressurized fluid is greater at the Nankai Trough owing to higher friction, although initially overpressured fluid at the Nankai Trough restrains the fault weakening. Dynamic rupture simulations reproduced the large slip near the trench observed in the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake and predicted the possibility of a large slip of over 30?m for the impending megaquake at the Nankai Trough. Our integrative approach is applicable globally to subduction zones as a novel tool for the prediction of extreme tsunami-producing near-trench slip.

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Project description:Data-driven machine-learning for predicting instantaneous and future fault-slip in laboratory experiments has recently progressed markedly, primarily due to large training data sets. In Earth however, earthquake interevent times range from 10's-100's of years and geophysical data typically exist for only a portion of an earthquake cycle. Sparse data presents a serious challenge to training machine learning models for predicting fault slip in Earth. Here we describe a transfer learning approach using numerical simulations to train a convolutional encoder-decoder that predicts fault-slip behavior in laboratory experiments. The model learns a mapping between acoustic emission and fault friction histories from numerical simulations, and generalizes to produce accurate predictions of laboratory fault friction. Notably, the predictions improve by further training the model latent space using only a portion of data from a single laboratory earthquake-cycle. The transfer learning results elucidate the potential of using models trained on numerical simulations and fine-tuned with small geophysical data sets for potential applications to faults in Earth.

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Effects of earthquake spatial slip correlation on variability of tsunami potential energy and intensities.

Project description:Variability characterization of tsunami generation is quintessential for proper hazard estimation. For this purpose we isolate the variability which stems solely from earthquake spatial source complexity, by simulating tsunami inundation in the near-field with a simplified digital elevation model, using nonlinear shallow water equations. For earthquake rupture, we prescribe slip to have a log-normal probability distribution function and von Kármán correlation between each subfault pair, which we assume decreases with increasing euclidean distance between them. From the generated near-field inundation time-series, emanating from several thousand synthetic slip realizations across a magnitude 9 earthquake, we extract several tsunami intensity measures at the coast. Results show that all considered tsunami intensity measures and potential energy variability increase with increasing spatial slip correlations. Finally, we show that larger spatial slip correlations produce higher tsunami intensity measure exceedance probabilities within the near-field, which highlights the need to quantify the uncertainty of earthquake spatial slip correlation.

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Segmentation of Shallow Slow Slip Events at the Hikurangi Subduction Zone Explained by Along-Strike Changes in Fault Geometry and Plate Convergence Rates.

Project description:Over the last two decades, geodetic and seismic observations have revealed a spectrum of slow earthquakes along the Hikurangi subduction zone in New Zealand. Of those, shallow slow slip events (SSEs) that occur at depths of less than 15 km along the plate interface show a strong along-strike segmentation in their recurrence intervals, which vary from ∼1 yr from offshore Tolaga Bay in the northeast to ∼5 yr offshore Cape Turnagain ∼300 km to the southwest. To understand the factors that control this segmentation, we conduct numerical simulations of SSEs incorporating laboratory-derived rate-and-state friction laws with both planar and non-planar fault geometries. We find that a relatively simple model assuming a realistic non-planar fault geometry reproduces the characteristics of shallow SSEs as constrained by geodetic observations. Our preferred model captures the magnitudes and durations of SSEs, as well as the northward decrease of their recurrence intervals. Our results indicate that the segmentation of SSE recurrence intervals is favored by along-strike changes in both the plate convergence rate and the downdip width of the SSE source region. Modeled SSEs with longer recurrence intervals concentrate in the southern part of the fault (offshore Cape Turnagain), where the plate convergence rate is lowest and the source region of SSEs is widest due to the shallower slab dip angle. Notably, the observed segmentation of shallow SSEs cannot be reproduced with a simple planar fault model, which indicates that a realistic plate interface is an important factor to account for in modeling SSEs.

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Fault slip and identification of the second fault plane in the Varzeghan earthquake doublet.

Project description:An intraplate earthquake doublet, with 11-min delay between the events, devastated the city of Varzeghan in northwestern Iran on August 11, 2012. The first Mw 6.5 strike-slip earthquake, which occurred after more than 200 years of low seismicity, was followed by an Mw 6.4 oblique thrust event at an epicentral separation of about 6 km. While the first event can be associated with a distinct surface rupture, the absence of a surface fault trace and no clear aftershock signature makes it challenging to identify the fault plane of the second event. We use teleseismic body wave inversion to deduce the slip distribution in the first event. Using both P and SH waves stabilize the inversion and we further constrain the result with the surface rupture extent and the aftershock distribution. The obtained slip pattern shows two distinct slip patches with dissimilar slip directions where aftershocks avoid high-slip areas. Using the estimated slip for the first event, we calculate the induced Coulomb stress change on the nodal planes of the second event and find a preference for higher Coulomb stress on the N-S nodal plane. Assuming a simple slip model for the second event, we estimate the combined Coulomb stress changes from the two events on the focal planes of the largest aftershocks. We find that 90% of the aftershocks show increased Coulomb stress on one of their nodal planes when the N-S plane of the second event is assumed to be the correct fault plane.

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