Impact of university re-opening on total community COVID-19 burden.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT: Background
University students have higher average number of contacts than the general population. Students returning to university campuses may exacerbate COVID-19 dynamics in the surrounding community.Methods
We developed a dynamic transmission model of COVID-19 in a mid-sized city currently experiencing a low infection rate. We evaluated the impact of 20,000 university students arriving on September 1 in terms of cumulative COVID-19 infections, time to peak infections, and the timing and peak level of critical care occupancy. We also considered how these impacts might be mitigated through screening interventions targeted to students.Results
If arriving students reduce their contacts by 40% compared to pre-COVID levels, the total number of infections in the community increases by 115% (from 3,515 to 7,551), with 70% of the incremental infections occurring in the general population, and an incremental 19 COVID-19 deaths. Screening students every 5 days reduces the number of infections attributable to the student population by 42% and the total COVID-19 deaths by 8. One-time mass screening of students prevents fewer infections than 5-day screening, but is more efficient, requiring 196 tests needed to avert one infection instead of 237.Interpretation
University students are highly inter-connected with the surrounding off-campus community. Screening targeted at this population provides significant public health benefits to the community through averted infections, critical care admissions, and COVID-19 deaths.
SUBMITTER: Cipriano LE
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8360395 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:We profiled 116,314 cells using snRNA-seq of 20 frozen lungs obtained from 19 COVID-19 decedents and seven control patients with short postmortem interval (PMI) autopsies. The COVID-19 cohort comprises seven female and 12 male decedents, including 13 patients of Hispanic ethnicity, with an age range from 58 to >89 years who had acquired SARS-CoV-2 infection and succumbed to the disease. The average time from symptom onset to death was 27.5 days (range, 4–63 days). After rapid autopsy with a median PMI of 4 hours (range 2–9 hours) collected tissues were either flash-frozen or frozen following OCT (optimal cutting temperature) embedment and subjected to snRNA-seq using a droplet-based platform (10x Genomics). All included patients had underlying hypertensive disorder and frequently one or more additional co-morbidities associated with increased risk for severe COVID-19.
2021-04-29 | GSE171524 | GEO
Project description:ObjectiveTo estimate the numbers of COVID-19-related hospitalisations in Australia after re-opening the international border.DesignPopulation-level deterministic compartmental epidemic modelling of eight scenarios applying various assumptions regarding SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility (baseline R0 = 3.5 or 7.0), vaccine rollout speed (slow or fast), and scale of border re-opening (mean of 2500 or 13 000 overseas arrivals per day).SettingSimulation population size, age structure, and age-based contact rates based on recent estimates for the Australian population. We assumed that 80% vaccination coverage of people aged 16 years or more was reached in mid-October 2021 (fast rollout) or early January 2022 (slow rollout).Main outcome measuresNumbers of people admitted to hospital with COVID-19, December 2021 - December 2022.ResultsIn scenarios assuming a highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variant (R0 = 7.0), opening the international border on either scale was followed by surges in both infections and hospitalisations that would require public health measures beyond mask wearing and social distancing to avoid overwhelming the health system. Reducing the number of hospitalisations to manageable levels required several cycles of additional social and mobility restrictions.ConclusionsIf highly transmissible SARS-CoV-2 variants are circulating locally or overseas, large and disruptive COVID-19 outbreaks will still be possible in Australia after 80% of people aged 16 years or more have been vaccinated. Continuing public health measures to restrict the spread of disease are likely to be necessary throughout 2022.
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Project description:This work aims to provide insights on the COVID-19 pandemic in three prime aspects. First, we attempted to understand the association between the COVID-19 transmission rate, environmental factors (air pollution, weather, mobility), and socio-political parameters (Government Stringency Index, GSI). Second, we evaluated the efficiency of various strategies, including radical opening, intermittent lockdown, phase lift, and contact tracing, to exit the COVID-19 pandemic and get back to pre-pandemic conditions using a stochastic individual-based epidemiology model. Third, we used a deep learning approach and simulated the vaccination rate and the time for reaching herd immunity. The analysis was done based on the collected data from eight countries in Asia, including Iran, Turkey, India, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, the Philippines, South Korea, and Russia (as a transcontinental country). Our findings in the first part highlighted a noninfluential impact from the weather-driven parameters and short-term exposure to pollutants on the transmission rate; however, long-term exposure could potentially increase the risk of COVID-19 mortality rates (based on 1998-2017 p.m.2.5 data). Mobility was highly correlated with the COVID-19 transmission and based on our causal analysis reducing mobility could curb the COVID-19 transmission rate with a 6-day lag time (on average). Secondly, among all the tested policies for exiting the COVID-19 pandemic, the contact tracing was the most efficient if executed correctly. With a 2-day delay in tracing the virus hosts, a 60% successful host tracing, and a 70% contact reduction with the hosts, a pandemic will end in a year without overburdening a healthcare system with 6000 hospital beds capacity per million. Lastly, our vaccine simulations showed that the target date for achieving herd immunity significantly varied among the countries and could be delayed to October-november 2022 in countries like India and Iran (based on 60% immunized population and assuming no intermediate factors affecting the vaccination rate).
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Project description:BackgroundThe Covid-19 pandemic created major global health crises, with serious effects on all aspects of life. The pandemic reached the Israeli occupied West Bank of Palestine in early March 2020, and lockdown immediately ensued.ObjectivesTo assess the prevalence and predictors of distress and insecurity among Birzeit University's community during the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown.MethodsAn online survey completed in March-April 2020 using standardized and previously validated distress and insecurity scales. The survey was placed on the University portal accessed by students, faculty and employees, and was sent by email to faculty and employees. Data were weighted to reflect the University community's distribution.FindingsThere were 1,851 participants in the study: 84% were undergraduate students, 10% graduate students, and 6% faculty and employees. Sixty two percent were women. Ages ranged from 17 to 70 years (mean 24 ± 9.7). Prevalence of moderate/high distress and insecurity were 40% and 48% respectively. Multiple logistic regression revealed that women, those under 35 years old and those with worse reported income, had significantly higher odds of distress and insecurity compared to their counterparts. Undergraduate students or living with a person at home with high risk of illness with COVID-19 were associated with higher odds of distress compared to their counterparts (OR = 1.56, 95%CI[1.13-2.15]) and (OR = 1.34, 95%CI[1.11-1.62]) respectively. A COVID-19 worry score was significantly associated with higher odds of distress and insecurity (OR = 1.77, 95%CI[1.46-2.14]) and (OR = 4.3, 95%CI[3.53-5.23]) respectively.ConclusionThis study emphasizes the need to pay attention not only to physical health but also to mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic, especially among young people, women, those with lower economic status, and those living with high risk persons during the pandemic. We hope that this study will inform the policies and interventions of the Palestinian Authority, local non-governmental organization, international groups working in the occupied Palestinian territory, and beyond.
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Project description:IntroductionThe current COVID-19 outbreak has led to sudden changes in routine and modifications in health behaviors. The study presented here investigates the changes in smoking behavior and beliefs due to the pandemic among a sample of individuals at the American University of Beirut (AUB) in Lebanon, between August and September 2020.MethodsThis is a cross-sectional exploratory study based on data collected through an anonymous, web-based questionnaire. We performed descriptive and univariate analysis on sociodemographic factors, smoking practices, smoking behavior changes, and smoking beliefs.ResultsIn all, 197 participants (65.5% never smokers, 8.1% former smokers, and 26.4% current smokers) completed the online survey. Of these, 19.3% reported a change in their smoking behavior in the last four months, with an equal number of participants increasing and decreasing smoking. Univariate analysis showed that fear of contracting coronavirus and personal health concerns were significantly associated with a decrease in smoking. In contrast, the stress associated with the COVID-19 crisis and the economic crisis was associated with an increase in smoking.ConclusionsThe current COVID-19 outbreak has resulted in unexpected alterations in routine and changes in health behaviors. A quarter of all participants said they had changed their smoking habits, with an equal percentage saying they had increased or decreased their smoking. Future research is needed to look into changes in smoking behavior in a more representative group.
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Project description:ObjectiveThis study investigated the impact of COVID-19 on young women's disordered eating and their responses to online interventions to reduce disordered eating.MethodUniversity students at risk of developing an eating disorder (N = 100) were randomly assigned to either receiving an online intervention to reduce disordered eating or not. Forty-one participants entered the study from September 2019 to March 2020 (pre-COVID) and 59 after physical distancing was introduced due to COVID pandemic (during COVID). Online assessments were conducted at baseline and 1-week follow up.ResultsThere was a significant increase in weight concerns, disordered eating, and negative affect among participants entering the trial during COVID compared to pre-COVID. The increases in the first two variables remained when adjusting for baseline negative affect. No significant interactions between time, condition and COVID status were observed.DiscussionYoung women experienced increased levels of disordered eating after the onset of COVID. While no interactions with COVID were detected, changes to within-group effect sizes for disordered eating more than doubled for both online interventions and assessment from pre-COVID to during COVID, suggesting any attention to issues related to disordered eating in the context of reduced social contact may be beneficial.
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Project description:BackgroundThe ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has greatly disrupted our everyday life, forcing the adoption of non-pharmaceutical interventions in many countries and putting public health services and healthcare systems worldwide under stress. These circumstances are leading to unintended effects such as the increase in the burden of other diseases.MethodsHere, using a data-driven epidemiological model for tuberculosis (TB) spreading, we describe the expected rise in TB incidence and mortality if COVID-associated changes in TB notification are sustained and attributable entirely to disrupted diagnosis and treatment adherence.ResultsOur calculations show that the reduction in diagnosis of new TB cases due to the COVID-19 pandemic could result in 228k (CI 187-276) excess deaths in India, 111k (CI 93-134) in Indonesia, 27k (CI 21-33) in Pakistan, and 12k (CI 9-18) in Kenya.ConclusionsWe show that it is possible to reverse these excess deaths by increasing the pre-covid diagnosis capabilities from 15 to 50% for 2 to 4 years. This would prevent almost all TB-related excess mortality that could be caused by the COVID-19 pandemic if no additional preventative measures are introduced. Our work therefore provides guidelines for mitigating the impact of COVID-19 on tuberculosis epidemic in the years to come.
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