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Predicting species distributions and community composition using satellite remote sensing predictors.

ABSTRACT: Biodiversity is rapidly changing due to changes in the climate and human related activities; thus, the accurate predictions of species composition and diversity are critical to developing conservation actions and management strategies. In this paper, using satellite remote sensing products as covariates, we constructed stacked species distribution models (S-SDMs) under a Bayesian framework to build next-generation biodiversity models. Model performance of these models was assessed using oak assemblages distributed across the continental United States obtained from the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON). This study represents an attempt to evaluate the integrated predictions of biodiversity models-including assemblage diversity and composition-obtained by stacking next-generation SDMs. We found that applying constraints to assemblage predictions, such as using the probability ranking rule, does not improve biodiversity prediction models. Furthermore, we found that independent of the stacking procedure (bS-SDM versus pS-SDM versus cS-SDM), these kinds of next-generation biodiversity models do not accurately recover the observed species composition at the plot level or ecological-community scales (NEON plots are 400 m²). However, these models do return reasonable predictions at macroecological scales, i.e., moderately to highly correct assignments of species identities at the scale of NEON sites (mean area ~ 27 km²). Our results provide insights for advancing the accuracy of prediction of assemblage diversity and composition at different spatial scales globally. An important task for future studies is to evaluate the reliability of combining S-SDMs with direct detection of species using image spectroscopy to build a new generation of biodiversity models that accurately predict and monitor ecological assemblages through time and space.

SUBMITTER: Pinto-Ledezma JN

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8361206 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:The El Niño-Southern Oscillation exerts a large influence on global climate regimes and on the global carbon cycle. Although El Niño is known to be associated with a reduction of the global total land carbon sink, results based on prognostic models or measurements disagree over the relative contribution of photosynthesis to the reduced sink. Here, we provide an independent remote sensing-based analysis on the impact of the 2015-2016 El Niño on global photosynthesis using six global satellite-based photosynthesis products and a global solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) dataset. An ensemble of satellite-based photosynthesis products showed a negative anomaly of -0.7 ± 1.2 PgC in 2015, but a slight positive anomaly of 0.05 ± 0.89 PgC in 2016, which when combined with observations of the growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations suggests that the reduction of the land residual sink was likely dominated by photosynthesis in 2015 but by respiration in 2016. The six satellite-based products unanimously identified a major photosynthesis reduction of -1.1 ± 0.52 PgC from savannahs in 2015 and 2016, followed by a highly uncertain reduction of -0.22 ± 0.98 PgC from rainforests. Vegetation in the Northern Hemisphere enhanced photosynthesis before and after the peak El Niño, especially in grasslands (0.33 ± 0.13 PgC). The patterns of satellite-based photosynthesis ensemble mean were corroborated by SIF, except in rainforests and South America, where the anomalies of satellite-based photosynthesis products also diverged the most. We found the inter-model variation of photosynthesis estimates was strongly related to the discrepancy between moisture forcings for models. These results highlight the importance of considering multiple photosynthesis proxies when assessing responses to climatic anomalies.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'.

Project description:BackgroundLack of accurate data on the distribution of sub-national populations in low- and middle-income countries impairs planning, monitoring, and evaluation of interventions. Novel, low-cost methods to develop unbiased survey sampling frames at sub-national, sub-provincial, and even sub-district levels are urgently needed. This article details our experience using remote satellite imagery to develop a provincial-level representative community survey sampling frame to evaluate the effects of a 7-year health system intervention in Sofala Province, Mozambique.MethodsMozambique's most recent census was conducted in 2007, and no data are readily available to generate enumeration areas for representative health survey sampling frames. To remedy this, we partnered with the Humanitarian OpenStreetMap Team to digitize every building in Sofala and Manica provinces (685,189 Sofala; 925,713 Manica) using up-to-date remote satellite imagery, with final results deposited in the open-source OpenStreetMap database. We then created a probability proportional to size sampling frame by overlaying a grid of 2.106 km resolution (0.02 decimal degrees) across each province, and calculating the number of buildings within each grid square. Squares containing buildings were used as our primary sampling unit with replacement. Study teams navigated to the geographic center of each selected square using geographic positioning system coordinates, and then conducted a standard "random walk" procedure to select 20 households for each time a given square was selected. Based on sample size calculations, we targeted a minimum of 1500 households in each province. We selected 88 grids within each province to reach 1760 households, anticipating ongoing conflict and transport issues could preclude the inclusion of some clusters.ResultsCivil conflict issues forced the exclusion of 8 of 31 subdistricts in Sofala and 15 of 39 subdistricts in Manica. Using Android tablets, Open Data Kit software, and a remote RedCap data capture system, our final sample included 1549 households in Sofala (4669 adults; 4766 children; 33 missing age) and 1538 households in Manica (4422 adults; 4898 children; 33 missing age).ConclusionsOther implementation or evaluation teams may consider employing similar methods to track population distributions for health systems planning or the development of representative sampling frames using remote satellite imagery.

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Predicting species distributions and community composition using satellite remote sensing predictors.

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