Forests buffer the climate-induced decline of body mass in a mountain herbivore.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Reiner R
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8361913 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Mountain forests are at particular risk of climate change impacts due to their temperature limitation and high exposure to warming. At the same time, their complex topography may help to buffer the effects of climate change and create climate refugia. Whether climate change can lead to critical transitions of mountain forest ecosystems and whether such transitions are reversible remain incompletely understood. We investigated the resilience of forest composition and size structure to climate change, focusing on a mountain forest landscape in the Eastern Alps. Using the individual-based forest landscape model iLand, we simulated ecosystem responses to a wide range of climatic changes (up to a 6°C increase in mean annual temperature and a 30% reduction in mean annual precipitation), testing for tipping points in vegetation size structure and composition under different topography scenarios. We found that at warming levels above +2°C a threshold was crossed, with the system tipping into an alternative state. The system shifted from a conifer-dominated landscape characterized by large trees to a landscape dominated by smaller, predominantly broadleaved trees. Topographic complexity moderated climate change impacts, smoothing and delaying the transitions between alternative vegetation states. We subsequently reversed the simulated climate forcing to assess the ability of the landscape to recover from climate change impacts. The forest landscape showed hysteresis, particularly in scenarios with lower precipitation. At the same mean annual temperature, equilibrium vegetation size structure and species composition differed between warming and cooling trajectories. Here we show that even moderate warming corresponding to current policy targets could result in critical transitions of forest ecosystems and highlight the importance of topographic complexity as a buffering agent. Furthermore, our results show that overshooting ambitious climate mitigation targets could be dangerous, as ecological impacts can be irreversible at millennial time scales once a tipping point has been crossed.
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Project description:The growth of past, present, and future forests was, is and will be affected by climate variability. This multifaceted relationship has been assessed in several regional studies, but spatially resolved, large-scale analyses are largely missing so far. Here we estimate recent changes in growth of 5800 beech trees (Fagus sylvatica L.) from 324 sites, representing the full geographic and climatic range of species. Future growth trends were predicted considering state-of-the-art climate scenarios. The validated models indicate growth declines across large region of the distribution in recent decades, and project severe future growth declines ranging from -20% to more than -50% by 2090, depending on the region and climate change scenario (i.e. CMIP6 SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). Forecasted forest productivity losses are most striking towards the southern distribution limit of Fagus sylvatica, in regions where persisting atmospheric high-pressure systems are expected to increase drought severity. The projected 21st century growth changes across Europe indicate serious ecological and economic consequences that require immediate forest adaptation.
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Project description:Atmospheric moisture recycling effectively increases the amount of usable water over land as the water can undergo multiple precipitation-evapotranspiration cycles. Differences in land cover and climate regulate the evapotranspiration flux. Forests can have deep roots that access groundwater facilitating transpiration throughout the dry season independent of precipitation. This stable transpiration buffers the forest against precipitation variability. However, it is not known whether the buffering effect, already modeled for tropical forests, is common to all forests globally. Here we apply a state-of-the-art Lagrangian moisture tracking model (UTrack) to study whether forest land cover in the upwind precipitationshed can lead to a reduction in monthly precipitation variability downwind. We found a significant buffering effect of forests in the precipitation variability of 10 out of 14 biomes globally. On average, if 50% of precipitation originates from forest, then we find a reduction in the coefficient of variation of monthly precipitation of 60%. We also observed that a high fraction of precipitation from non-forest land sources tends to have the opposite effect, that is, no buffering effect. The average variation of monthly precipitation was 69% higher in areas where 50% of precipitation originates from non-forest land sources in the precipitationshed. Our results emphasize the importance of land cover composition in the precipitationshed to buffer precipitation variability downwind, in particular forest cover. Understanding the influence of land cover in a precipitationshed on atmospheric moisture transport is key for evaluating an area's water-climate regulatory ecosystem services and may become increasingly important due to continued changes in land cover and climate change.
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Project description:Mothers are crucial for mammals' survival before nutritional independence, but many social mammals reside with their mothers long after. In these species the social adversity caused by maternal loss later in life can dramatically reduce fitness. However, in some human populations these negative consequences can be overcome by care from other group members. We investigated the consequences of maternal loss in mountain gorillas and found no discernible fitness costs to maternal loss through survival, age at first birth, or survival of first offspring through infancy. Social network analysis revealed that relationships with other group members, particularly dominant males and those close in age, strengthened following maternal loss. In contrast to most social mammals, where maternal loss causes considerable social adversity, in mountain gorillas, as in certain human populations, this may be buffered by relationships within cohesive social groups, breaking the link between maternal loss, increased social adversity, and decreased fitness.
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Project description:Climate change severely affects mountain forests and their ecosystem services, e.g., by altering disturbance regimes. Increasing timber harvest (INC) via a close-to-nature forestry may offer a mitigation strategy to reduce disturbance predisposition. However, little is known about the efficiency of this strategy at the scale of forest enterprises and potential trade-offs with biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES). We applied a decision support system which accounts for disturbance predisposition and BES indicators to evaluate the effect of different harvest intensities and climate change scenarios on windthrow and bark beetle predisposition in a mountain forest enterprise in Switzerland. Simulations were carried out from 2010 to 2100 under historic climate and climate change scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5). In terms of BES, biodiversity (structural and tree species diversity, deadwood amount) as well as timber production, recreation (visual attractiveness), carbon sequestration, and protection against gravitational hazards (rockfall, avalanche and landslides) were assessed. The INC strategy reduced disturbance predisposition to windthrow and bark beetles. However, the mitigation potential for bark beetle disturbance was relatively small (- 2.4%) compared to the opposite effect of climate change (+ 14% for RCP8.5). Besides, the INC strategy increased the share of broadleaved species and resulted in a synergy with recreation and timber production, and a trade-off with carbon sequestration and protection function. Our approach emphasized the disproportionally higher disturbance predisposition under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, which may threaten currently unaffected mountain forests. Decision support systems accounting for climate change, disturbance predisposition, and BES can help coping with such complex planning situations.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-022-02015-w.
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Project description:Fagus sylvatica (beech) dominates the montane forests of the Apennines and builds old-growth high-conservation value stands. However, recent severe drought-induced diebacks raise concern on the future persistence of these forests and of Southern European mesophilous woodlands overall, growing at their dry edge. To explore the history of Apennine beech-dominated forests, we draw on the multiproxy paleoecological record from Lago Verdarolo, which includes a robust vegetation-independent temperature reconstruction. Numerical techniques are used to investigate the drivers of long-term Mediterranean mountain forest dynamics. Specifically, we focus on disentangling the ecological factors that caused the shift from high-diversity mixed forests to beech-dominated stands and on assessing the occurrence of legacy effects on present-day forests. Abrupt climate change largely drove vegetation dynamics during the Late Glacial and Early Holocene. Species-rich mixed Abies alba (silver fir) forests dominated about 10,500-5500 years ago, under rather dry and warmer-than-today conditions (+ 1-2 °C) and limited fire occurrence. Cooler and moister summers and increasing fire activity caused declines in several fire-sensitive temperate deciduous trees (for example, Ulmus, Tilia, Fraxinus) and favored the establishment of fir-beech forests around 5500 years ago. Further enhancement of fire activity and farming around 2000 years ago led to local Abies alba extinction and forest impoverishment. We conclude that the currently widespread monospecific Apennine beech forests are the result of multi-millennial land-use intensification superimposed on Late Holocene cooling and moistening. Given their higher drought-tolerance compared to beech stands, reviving ancient species-rich mixed fir forests represents a feasible and 'tested' possibility to adapt forests to climate change.
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Project description:Hemi-boreal forests, which make up the transition from temperate deciduous forests to boreal forests in southern Siberia, have experienced significant warming without any accompanying increase in precipitation during the last 80 years. This climatic change could have a profound impact on tree growth and on the stability of forest ecosystems in this region, but at present evidence for these impacts is lacking. In this study, we report a recent dramatic decline in the growth of hemi-boreal forests, based on ring width measurements from three dominant tree-species (Pinus sylvestris, Larix sibirica and Larix gmelinii), sampled from eight sites in the region. We found that regional tree growth has become increasingly limited by low soil water content in the pre- and early-growing season (from October of the previous year to July of the current year) over the past 80 years. A warming-induced reduction in soil water content has also increased the climate sensitivity of these three tree species. Beginning in the mid-1980s, a clear decline in growth is evident for both the pine forests and the larch forests, although there are increasing trends in the proxy of soil water use efficiencies. Our findings are consistent with those from other parts of the world and provide valuable insights into the regional carbon cycle and vegetation dynamics, and should be useful for devising adaptive forest management strategies.
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Project description:BackgroundSpinocerebellar ataxias (SCAs) are dominantly inherited, progressive ataxia disorders. Disease progression could be preceded by weight loss.ObjectivesWe aimed to study the course of weight loss in patients who had the most common SCAs (SCA1, SCA2 SCA3, and SCA6). Additional objectives were to identify subgroups of weight evolution, to determine the factors influencing these evolutions, and to assess the impact of these evolutions on disease progression.MethodsIn total, 384 patients from the EUROSCA prospective cohort study were analyzed who had SCA1, SCA2, SCA3, or SCA6 and at least 3 measurements of weight. Age was used as a time scale. Clinical outcomes were body mass index (BMI) and the Scale for the Assessment and Rating Ataxia (SARA), with scores ranging from 0 to 40. We used a linear mixed model to analyze the course of BMI and a latent class mixed model to identify subgroup BMI evolution.ResultsOverall, BMI declined over time (-0.11 ± 0.03 kg/m2 per decade; P = 0.0009). Three subgroups of BMI evolution were identified: "decreasing BMI" (n = 88; 23%), "increasing BMI" (n = 70; 18%) and "stable BMI" (n = 226; 59%). Patients in the decreasing BMI group were more severely affected at baseline with higher SARA scores and a higher frequency of non-ataxia signs (especially motor symptoms) compared with those in the other groups. Weight loss was associated with faster disease progression (5.7 ± 0.7 SARA points per decade; P = 0.036).ConclusionsThe current data have substantial implications for the design of future interventional studies in SCA, as they provide a basis for patient stratification and emphasize the usefulness of BMI as a biomarker for monitoring disease progression.
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Project description:Muscle quality (MQ) or strength-to-mass ratio declines with aging, but the rate of MQ change with aging is highly heterogeneous across individuals. The identification of risk factors for accelerated MQ decline may offer clues to identity the underpinning physiological mechanisms and indicate targets for prevention and treatment. Using data from the Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging, we tested whether measures of body mass and body composition are associated with differential rates of changes in MQ with aging.Participants included 511 men and women, aged 50 years or older, followed for an average of 4 years (range: 1-8). MQ was operationalized as ratio between knee-extension isokinetic strength and CT-thigh muscle cross-sectional area. Predictors included body mass and body composition measures: weight (kg), body mass index (BMI, kg/m2 ), dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry-measured total body fat mass (TFM, kg) and lean mass (TLM, kg), and body fatness (TFM/weight). Covariates were baseline age, sex, race, and body height.Muscle quality showed a significant linear decline over the time of the follow up (average rate of decline 0.02 Nm/cm2 per year, P < .001). Independent of covariates, neither baseline body weight (P = .756) nor BMI (P = .777) was predictive of longitudinal rate of decline in MQ. Instead, higher TFM and lower TLM at baseline predicted steeper longitudinal decline in MQ (P = .036 and P < .001, respectively). In particular, participants with both high TFM and low TLM at baseline experienced the most dramatic decline compared with those with low TFM and high TLM (about 3% per year vs. 0.5% per year, respectively). Participants in the higher tertile of baseline body fatness presented a significantly faster decline of MQ than the rest of the population (P = .021). Similar results were observed when body mass, TFM, and TLM were modeled as time-dependent predictors.Body composition, but not weight nor BMI, is associated with future MQ decline, suggesting that preventive strategies aimed at maintaining good MQ with aging should specifically target body composition features.
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Project description:Tropical forests on karstic relief (tropical karst forest) are among the most species-rich biomes. These forests play pivotal roles as global climate regulators and for human wellbeing. Their long-term conservation could be central to global climate mitigation and biodiversity conservation. In Mexico, karst landscapes occupy 20% of the total land surface and are distributed mainly in the southeast of the country, along the eastern slope, and in the Yucatan Peninsula. Within each of these areas, the following types of karst occur: coastal karst, plain karst, hill karst, and mountain karst (low, medium, high). Mountain karst cover 2.07% of Mexico's land surface and are covered by tropical rainforests, montane cloud forests, and tropical deciduous forests. These are probably one of the most diverse biomes in Mexico. However, the mountain karst forests of Mexico have received little attention, and very little is known about their diversity. Here, we evaluated the vascular plant species richness within the mountain karst forests of Mexico. We assembled the first, largest, and most comprehensive datasets of Mexican mountain karst forest species, from different public databases (CONABIO, GBIF, IBdata-UNAM), which included a critical review of all data. We compiled a list of the families, genera, and species present within the mountain karst forests of Mexico. Taxa that best characterize these forests were identified based on their spatial correlation with this biome. We explored biodiversity patterns, identifying areas with the highest species richness, endemism centers, and areas of relatively low sampling intensity. We found that within the mountain karst forests of Mexico there are representatives of 11,771 vascular plant species (253 families and 2,254 genera), ca. 50% of the Mexican flora. We identified 372 species endemic to these forests. According to preliminary IUCN red list criteria, 2,477 species are under some category of conservation risk, of which 456 (3.8%) are endangered. Most of the Mexican mountain karst forests have been extensively explored and six allopatric, species-rich areas were identified. Compared to other regions in the world, the mountain karst forests of Mexico are one of the most diverse biomes. They contain more species than some entire montane systems in Mexico such as Sierra Madre Oriental, and Sierra Madre del Sur. Also, the mountain karst forests of Mexico are most diverse than similar forests of South America and Asia, even if considering the effect of different sampling areas. The fact that mountain karst forests are embedded in areas of high biotic diversity, probably contributes to their great floristic diversity. Thus, the mountain karst forests of Mexico are an important source of diversity and shelters a large percentage of the Mexican flora.
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