Competing risk of mortality in association studies of non-fatal events.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Buzkova P
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8362942 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:While poor performance during a maximal graded exercise test (GXT) predicts cardiovascular events and premature mortality, the potential clinical importance of non-participation in a GXT, either for medical or non-medical reasons, is currently unknown. Data are from 4086 and 3547 Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) participants who attended the Year 7 (ages 25-37years) and/or 20 exams (ages 38-50years), respectively, which included a GXT. Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the effect of GXT disposition (at Year 7 and 20, separately) on risk of non-fatal and fatal cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality obtained through 28years of follow-up. A GXT was not conducted or completed according to protocol in 12.9% and 19.1% of participants attending the Year 7 and 20 exams, respectively. After adjustment, participants who missed the Year 20 GXT for medical reasons had a higher risk of cardiovascular events [HR: 4.06 (95% CI: 1.43, 11.5)] and all-cause mortality [HR: 3.07 (95% CI: 1.11, 12.3)] compared to GXT completers; participants who missed at Year 20 for non-medical reasons also had higher risk of all-cause mortality [HR: 2.53 (95% CI: 1.61, 3.99)]. Findings suggest that non-participation in a GXT, regardless of medical or non-medical reason, to be an important predictor of excess risk of adverse health outcomes and premature mortality. Additional patient follow-up, including identification of potential targets for intervention (e.g., weight management and smoking cessation programs), should be conducted at the point of a missed GXT.
| S-EPMC6400469 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundInternational dietary guidelines aim to reduce risks of all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and fatal CVD often associated with poor dietary habits. However, most studies have examined associations with individual nutrients, foods, or dietary patterns, as opposed to quantifying the pooled health effects of adherence to international dietary recommendations. We investigated associations between total adherence to the World Health Organization (WHO) dietary recommendations for saturated fats, free sugars, fibre, and fruits and vegetables and all-cause mortality and fatal and non-fatal CVD.MethodsWe included participants from the UK Biobank cohort recruited in 2006-2010, which provided at least two valid 24-h dietary assessments. We defined adherence to dietary recommendations as ≤ 10% saturated fats, ≤ 10% free sugars, ≥ 25 g/day fibre, and ≥ 5 servings of fruits and vegetables/day. Multivariable Cox-proportional hazards models were used to investigate prospective associations with all-cause mortality and fatal and non-fatal CVD. In cross-sectional analyses, multivariable linear regression was used to examine associations with cardiometabolic risk factors.ResultsAmong 115,051 participants (39-72 years), only 29.7%, 38.5%, 22.3%, and 9.5% met 0, 1, 2, or 3-4 recommendations, respectively. There was a lower risk of all-cause mortality among participants meeting more dietary recommendations (Ptrend < 0.001), with a significantly lower risk among participants meeting 2: HR 0.91 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.85-0.97) and 3-4: HR 0.79 (95% CI 0.71-0.88) recommendations. There was no trend with CVD risk, but a significantly lower risk of fatal CVD with 3-4 recommendations: HR 0.78 (95% CI 0.61-0.98). Meeting more recommendations resulted in significant cross-sectional trends (Ptrend < 0.001) towards lower body fat, waist circumference, LDL cholesterol, apolipoprotein B, triglycerides, alkaline phosphatase, gamma glutammyltransferase, and hs-CRP, but higher glucose and aspartate aminotransferase.ConclusionsMeeting dietary recommendations is associated with additive reductions in premature mortality. Motivating and supporting people to adhere to dietary guidelines may help extend years of healthy life expectancy.
| S-EPMC8220774 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundObservational studies evaluating the relationship between ideal cardiovascular health (CVH) metrics and risk of cardiovascular (CV) events and mortality yielded inconsistent results.HypothesisImprovement in CVH metrics can result in substantial reductions in the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), stroke, and mortality.MethodsWe examined associations between ideal CVH metrics and CV events and mortality by conducting a meta-analysis of data from prospective cohort studies identified by searching PubMed and Web of Science from their inception to February 2017 and reviewing the reference lists of the retrieved articles.ResultsThirteen prospective studies involving a total of 193 126 cohort members were included in this meta-analysis. When comparing the most to the least category of ideal CVH metrics, the overall relative risks (RRs) were 0.54 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.41-0.69) for all-cause mortality, 0.30 (95% CI: 0.18-0.51) for CV mortality, 0.22 (95% CI: 0.11-0.42) for CVD, and 0.33 (95% CI: 0.20-0.55) for stroke, respectively. A linear dose-response relationship was seen in all-cause and CV mortality. The risk decreased by 11% and 19% for each increase in ideal CVH metrics. For the analyses of ideal health status in relation to all-cause and CV mortality, significant results were obtained from smoking, diet, physical activity, plasma glucose levels, and blood pressure.ConclusionsIdeal CVH status, or even 1 point increase in CVH metrics, can result in substantial reductions in the risk of CVD, stroke, and mortality. Improving metrics of smoking, diet, physical activity, plasma glucose levels, and blood pressure will achieve the highest benefits.
| S-EPMC6490399 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This tertiary analysis from AVERT examined fatal and non-fatal Serious Adverse Events (SAEs) at 14 days. AVERT was a prospective, parallel group, assessor blinded, randomized international clinical trial comparing mobility training commenced <24 hours post stroke, termed very early mobilization (VEM) to usual care (UC). Primary outcome was assessed at 3 months. Included: Patients with ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke within 24 hours of onset. Treatment with thrombolytics allowed. Excluded: Patients with severe premorbid disability and/or comorbidities. Interventions continued for 14 days or hospital discharge if less. The primary early safety outcome was fatal SAEs within 14 days. Secondary outcomes were non-fatal SAEs classified as neurologic, immobility-related, and other. Mortality influences were assessed using binary logistic regression adjusted for baseline stroke severity (NIHSS) and age. 2,104 participants were randomized to VEM (n = 1,054) or UC (n = 1,050) with a median age of 72 years (IQR 63-80) and NIHSS 7 (IQR 4-12). By 14 days, 48 had died in VEM, 32 in UC, age and stroke severity adjusted Odds Ratio of 1.76 (95% CI 1.06-2.92, p = 0.029). Stroke progression was more common in VEM. Exploratory subgroup analyses showed higher odds of death in intracerebral haemorrhage and >80 years subgroups, but there was no significant treatment by subgroup interaction. No difference in non-fatal SAEs found. While the overall case fatality at 14 days post-stroke was only 3.8%, mortality adjusted for age and stroke severity was increased with high dose, intensive training compared to usual care. Stroke progression was more common in VEM. This study provides Class I evidence that very early mobilization increases mortality at 14 days post stroke. Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, ACTRN12606000185561.
| S-EPMC8055346 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Epidemiological studies have shown that eating fish significantly reduces cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence and mortality. However, more focused meta-analyses based on the most recent results from prospective cohort studies are needed. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to update the association between fish intake and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk using recent prospective studies. A systematic review and meta-analysis following the PRISMA guideline was conducted based on a random effects synthesis of multivariable-adjusted relative risks (RRs) of high vs. low categories of fish intake in relation to CVD incidence and mortality. Non-linear meta-regression was applied to investigate the shape of the association between fish intake and CVD risk. Sensitivity analysis and stratifications by type of CVD outcome, type of fish intake and type of cooking were performed. Based on 18 papers reporting 17 independent estimates of CVD risk (1,442,407 participants and 78,805 fatal and non-fatal CVD events), high vs. low intake of fish corresponded to about 8% reduced CVD risk (RR = 0.93 [0.88-0.98]). According to a non-linear dose-response meta-regression, 50 g of fish intake per day corresponded to a statistically significant 9% reduced fatal and non-fatal CVD risk (RR = 0.92 [0.90-0.95]). Similarly, fish intake in the range of a weekly intake of two to three portions of fish with a size of 150 g resulted in 8% fatal and non-fatal CVD risk reduction (RR = 0.93 [0.91-0.96]). The recommended two portions of fish a week reduces the risk of CVD outcomes by approximately 10%. A full portion of fish a day reduces CVD risk by up to 30%.
| S-EPMC10647504 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Recent studies show that patients with myotonic dystrophy (DM) have an increased risk of specific malignancies, but estimates of absolute cancer risk accounting for competing events are lacking. Using the Swedish Patient Registry, we identified 1,081 patients with an inpatient and/or outpatient diagnosis of DM between 1987 and 2007. Date and cause of death and date of cancer diagnosis were extracted from the Swedish Cause of Death and Cancer Registries. We calculated non-parametric estimates of absolute cancer risk and cancer mortality accounting for the high non-cancer competing mortality associated with DM. Absolute cancer risk after DM diagnosis was 1.6% (95% CI=0.4-4%), 5% (95% CI=3-9%) and 9% (95% CI=6-13%) at ages 40, 50 and 60 years, respectively. Females had a higher absolute risk of all cancers combined than males: 9% (95% CI=4-14), and 13% (95% CI=9-20) vs. 2% (95%CI= 0.7-6) and 4% (95%CI=2-8) by ages 50 and 60 years, respectively) and developed cancer at younger ages (median age =51 years, range=22-74 vs. 57, range=43-84, respectively, p=0.02). Cancer deaths accounted for 10% of all deaths, with an absolute cancer mortality risk of 2% (95%CI=1-4.5%), 4% (95%CI=2-6%), and 6% (95%CI=4-9%) by ages 50, 60, and 70 years, respectively. No gender difference in cancer-specific mortality was observed (p=0.6). In conclusion, cancer significantly contributes to morbidity and mortality in DM patients, even after accounting for high competing DM mortality from non-neoplastic causes. It is important to apply population-appropriate, validated cancer screening strategies in DM patients.
| S-EPMC3827449 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Drug overdose is a public health crisis in the United States, due in part to the unintended consequences of increases in prescribing of opioid analgesics. Many clinicians evaluate risk markers for opioid-related harms when prescribing opioids for chronic pain; however, more data on predictive risk markers are needed. Risk markers are attributes (modifiable and non-modifiable) that are associated with increased probability of an outcome. This review aims to identify risk markers associated with fatal and non-fatal prescription drug overdose by synthesizing findings in the existing peer-reviewed and grey literature. Eligible cohort, case-control, cross-sectional, and case-cohort studies were reviewed and data were extracted for qualitative and quantitative synthesis.Summary odds ratios (SOR) were estimated from 29 studies for six risk markers: sex, age, race, psychiatric disorders, substance use disorder (SUD), and urban/rural residence. Heterogeneity was assessed and effect estimates were stratified by study characteristics. Of the six risk markers identified, SUD had the strongest association with drug overdose death (SOR = 5.24, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 3.53 - 7.76), followed by psychiatric disorders (SOR = 3.94, 95% CI = 3.09 - 5.01), white race (SOR = 2.28, 95% CI = 1.93 - 2.70), the 35-44 year age group relative to the 25-34 year reference group (SOR = 1.52, 95% CI = 1.31 - 1.76), and male sex (SOR = 1.33, 95% CI = 1.17 - 1.51).This review highlights fatal and non-fatal prescription drug risk markers most frequently assessed in peer-reviewed and grey literature. There is a need to better understand modifiable risk markers and underlying reasons for drug misuse in order to inform interventions that may prevent future drug overdoses.
| S-EPMC5545182 | biostudies-other
Project description:Previous studies examining the association of cognitive impairment and dementia with fracture outcomes in older adults have usually used standard approaches that did not take into account the competing risk of mortality. However, ignoring mortality may not provide accurate estimates of risk of fracture because dementia in older adults strongly predicts death, making mortality a competing risk. A total of 1491 women (mean age 87.6 years) participating in the prospective Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF) Year 20 exam were cognitively assessed and followed to ascertain vital status (deaths verified by death certificates) and hip fractures (confirmed by radiographic reports). Cognitive status was categorized as normal, mild cognitive impairment (MCI), or dementia, based on a standardized evaluation. Absolute probability of hip fracture by category of cognitive function was estimated using traditional Kaplan-Meier method and cumulative incidence function accounting for competing mortality risk. Risk of hip fracture by cognitive function category was determined using conventional Cox proportional hazards regression and subdistribution hazards models with death as a competing risk. During an average follow-up of 5.6 years, 139 (9.3%) women experienced a hip fracture and 990 (66.4%) died before experiencing this outcome. Among women with dementia, the risk of hip fracture was 11.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 7.3-17.2) at 5 years and 18.6% (95% CI 9.1-30.9) at 10 years using traditional survival analysis versus 7.9% (95% CI 5.1-11.6) at 5 years and 8.8% (95% CI 5.8-12.8) at 9.8 years using a competing risk approach. Results were similar for women with MCI. Women with MCI and dementia have a higher risk of hip fractures than women with normal cognition. However, not taking into account the competing risk of mortality significantly overestimates the risk of hip fracture in women in the ninth and tenth decades of life with cognitive impairment. © 2018 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.
| S-EPMC6136425 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background: Drug overdoses (fatal and non-fatal) are among the leading causes of death in population with substance use disorders. The aim of the current study was to identify risk factors for fatal and non-fatal drug overdose for predominantly opioid-dependent treatment-seeking population. Methods: Data were collected from 640 adult patients using a self-reported 25-item Overdose Risk (OdRi) questionnaire pertaining to drug use and identified related domains. The exploratory factor analysis (EFA) was primarily used to improve the interpretability of this questionnaire. Two sets of EFA were conducted; in the first set of analysis, all items were included, while in the second set, items related to the experience of overdose were removed. Logistic regression was used for the assessment of latent factors' association with both fatal and non-fatal overdoses. Results: EFA suggested a three-factor solution accounting for 75 and 97% of the variance for items treated in the first and second sets of analysis, respectively. Factor 1 was common for both sets of EFA analysis, containing six items (Cronbach's α = 0.70) focusing around "illicit drug use and lack of treatment." In the first set of analysis, Factors 2 (Cronbach's α = 0.60) and 3 (Cronbach's α = 0.34) were focusing around "mental health and emotional trauma" and "chronic drug use and frequent overdose" domains, respectively. The increase of Factor 2 was found to be a risk factor for fatal drug overdose (adjusted coefficient = 1.94, p = 0.038). In the second set of analysis, Factors 2 (Cronbach's α = 0.65) and 3 (Cronbach's α = 0.59) as well as Factor 1 were found to be risk factors for non-fatal drug overdose ever occurring. Only Factors 1 and 3 were positively associated with non-fatal overdose (one in a past year). Conclusion: The OdRi tool developed here could be helpful for clinical studies for the overdose risk assessment. However, integrating validated tools for mental health can probably help refining the accuracy of latent variables and the questionnaire's consistency. Mental health and life stress appear as important predictors of both fatal and non-fatal overdoses.
| S-EPMC8506126 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Purpose: We aimed to assess the associations of handgrip strength (HS) with cardiovascular and all-cause mortality and whether adding data on HS to cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors is associated with improvement in CVD mortality prediction.Design: Handgrip strength was assessed in a population-based sample of 861 participants aged 61-74 years at baseline. Relative HS was obtained by dividing the absolute value by body weight.Results: During a median (interquartile range) follow-up of 17.3 (12.6-18.4) years, 116 fatal coronary heart diseases (CHDs), 195 fatal CVDs and 412 all-cause mortality events occurred. On adjustment for several risk factors, the hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals (CIs)) for fatal CHD, fatal CVD and all-cause mortality were 0.59 (0.37-0.95), 0.59 (0.41-0.86) and 0.66 (0.51-0.84), respectively, comparing extreme tertiles of relative HS. Adding relative HS to a CVD mortality risk prediction model containing established risk factors did not improve discrimination or reclassification using Harrell's C-index (C-index change: 0.0034; p = .65), integrated-discrimination-improvement (0.0059; p = .20) and net-reclassification-improvement (-1.31%; p = .74); however, there was a significant difference in -2 log likelihood (p < .001).Conclusions: Relative HS is inversely associated with CHD, CVD and all-cause mortality events. Adding relative HS to conventional risk factors improves CVD risk assessment using sensitive measures of discrimination.KEY MESSAGESHandgrip strength (HS) assessment is simple, inexpensive and it takes only a few minutes to measure in clinical practice; however, its prognostic role for fatal cardiovascular outcomes on top of traditional risk factors in apparently healthy populations is uncertain.In a population-based prospective cohort study, good HS adjusted for body weight was associated with lower risk of fatal cardiovascular outcomes and the associations remained consistent across several clinically relevant subgroups.Handgrip strength may be a useful prognostic tool for fatal CHD and CVD events, in the general population.
| S-EPMC7877981 | biostudies-literature