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Approaches for estimating benefits and costs of interventions in plant biosecurity across invasion phases.

ABSTRACT: Nonnative plant pests cause billions of dollars in damages. It is critical to prevent or reduce these losses by intervening at various stages of the invasion process, including pathway risk management (to prevent pest arrival), surveillance and eradication (to counter establishment), and management of established pests (to limit damages). Quantifying benefits and costs of these interventions is important to justify and prioritize investments and to inform biosecurity policy. However, approaches for these estimations differ in (1) the assumed relationship between supply, demand, and prices, and (2) the ability to assess different types of direct and indirect costs at invasion stages, for a given arrival or establishment probability. Here we review economic approaches available to estimate benefits and costs of biosecurity interventions to inform the appropriate selection of approaches. In doing so, we complement previous studies and reviews on estimates of damages from invasive species by considering the influence of economic and methodological assumptions. Cost accounting is suitable for rapid decisions, specific impacts, and simple methodological assumptions but fails to account for feedbacks, such as market adjustments, and may overestimate long-term economic impacts. Partial equilibrium models consider changes in consumer and producer surplus due to pest impacts or interventions and can account for feedbacks in affected sectors but require specialized economic models, comprehensive data sets, and estimates of commodity supply and demand curves. More intensive computable general equilibrium models can account for feedbacks across entire economies, including capital and labor, and linkages among these. The two major considerations in choosing an approach are (1) the goals of the analysis (e.g., consideration of a single pest or intervention with a limited range of impacts vs. multiple interventions, pests or sectors), and (2) the resources available for analysis such as knowledge, budget and time.

SUBMITTER: Welsh MJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8365635 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundIn Mexico, the lifetime risk of dying from maternal causes is 1 in 370 compared to 1 in 2,500 in the U.S. Although national efforts have been made to improve maternal services in the last decade, it is unclear if Millennium Development Goal 5--to reduce maternal mortality by three-quarters by 2015--will be met.Methodology/principal findingsWe developed an empirically calibrated model that simulates the natural history of pregnancy and pregnancy-related complications in a cohort of 15-year-old women followed over their lifetime. After synthesizing national and sub-national trends in maternal mortality, the model was calibrated to current intervention-specific coverage levels and validated by comparing model-projected life expectancy, total fertility rate, crude birth rate and maternal mortality ratio with Mexico-specific data. Using both published and primary data, we assessed the comparative health and economic outcomes of alternative strategies to reduce maternal morbidity and mortality. A dual approach that increased coverage of family planning by 15%, and assured access to safe abortion for all women desiring elective termination of pregnancy, reduced mortality by 43% and was cost saving compared to current practice. The most effective strategy added a third component, enhanced access to comprehensive emergency obstetric care for at least 90% of women requiring referral. At a national level, this strategy reduced mortality by 75%, cost less than current practice, and had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $300 per DALY relative to the next best strategy. Analyses conducted at the state level yielded similar results.Conclusions/significanceIncreasing the provision of family planning and assuring access to safe abortion are feasible, complementary and cost-effective strategies that would provide the greatest benefit within a short-time frame. Incremental improvements in access to high-quality intrapartum and emergency obstetric care will further reduce maternal deaths and disability.

Project description:BACKGROUND: In genomic prediction, an important measure of accuracy is the correlation between the predicted and the true breeding values. Direct computation of this quantity for real datasets is not possible, because the true breeding value is unknown. Instead, the correlation between the predicted breeding values and the observed phenotypic values, called predictive ability, is often computed. In order to indirectly estimate predictive accuracy, this latter correlation is usually divided by an estimate of the square root of heritability. In this study we use simulation to evaluate estimates of predictive accuracy for seven methods, four (1 to 4) of which use an estimate of heritability to divide predictive ability computed by cross-validation. Between them the seven methods cover balanced and unbalanced datasets as well as correlated and uncorrelated genotypes. We propose one new indirect method (4) and two direct methods (5 and 6) for estimating predictive accuracy and compare their performances and those of four other existing approaches (three indirect (1 to 3) and one direct (7)) with simulated true predictive accuracy as the benchmark and with each other. RESULTS: The size of the estimated genetic variance and hence heritability exerted the strongest influence on the variation in the estimated predictive accuracy. Increasing the number of genotypes considerably increases the time required to compute predictive accuracy by all the seven methods, most notably for the five methods that require cross-validation (Methods 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6). A new method that we propose (Method 5) and an existing method (Method 7) used in animal breeding programs were the fastest and gave the least biased, most precise and stable estimates of predictive accuracy. Of the methods that use cross-validation Methods 4 and 6 were often the best. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated genetic variance and the number of genotypes had the greatest influence on predictive accuracy. Methods 5 and 7 were the fastest and produced the least biased, the most precise, robust and stable estimates of predictive accuracy. These properties argue for routinely using Methods 5 and 7 to assess predictive accuracy in genomic selection studies.

Project description:ObjectivesStudies indicate that many types of surgical care are cost-effective compared with other health interventions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, global health investments to support these interventions remain limited. This study undertakes a scoping review of research on the economic impact of surgical interventions in LMICs to determine the methodologies used in measuring economic benefits.DesignThe Arksey and O'Malley methodological framework for scoping reviews and the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Extension for Scoping Reviews checklist were used to review the data systematically. Online databases were used to identify papers published between 2005 and 2020, from which we selected 19 publications that quantitatively examined the economic benefits of surgical interventions in LMICs.ResultsMajority of publications (79%) reported the use of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) to assess economic impact. In comparison, 21% used other measures, such as the value of statistical life or cost-effectiveness ratios, or no measure at all. 31% were systematic or retrospective reviews of the literature on surgical procedures in LMICs, while 69% either directly assessed economic impact in a specific area or evaluated the need for surgical procedures in LMICs. All studies reviewed related to the economic impact of surgical procedures in LMICs, with most about paediatric surgical procedures or a specific surgical specialty.ConclusionTo make informed policy decisions regarding global health investments, the economic impact must be accurately measured. Researchers employ a range of techniques to quantify the economic benefit of surgeries in LMICs, which limits understanding of overall economic value. We conclude that the literature would benefit from a careful selection of methods, incorporating age and disability weights based on the Global Burden of Disease weights, and converting DALYs to dollars using the value of statistical life approach and the human capital approach, reporting both estimates.

Project description:BackgroundCommunity-Directed Interventions (CDI) is a participatory approach for delivery of essential healthcare services at community level. It is based on the values and principles of Primary Health Care (PHC). The CDI approach has been used to improve the delivery of services in areas that have previously applied Community-Directed Treatment with ivermectin (CDTi). Limited knowledge is available about its added value for strengthening PHC services in areas without experience in CDTi. This study aimed to assess how best to use the CDI approach to strengthen locally identified PHC services at district level.MethodsThis was a comparative intervention study carried out over a period of 12?months and involving four health centres and 16 villages assigned to 1) a conventional Essential Health Package (EHP)/PHC approach at health centre level or 2) an EHP/PHC/CDI approach at community level in addition to EHP/PHC at health centre level. Communities decided which intervention components to be included in the intervention. These were home management of malaria (HMM), long lasting insecticide treated nets (LLIN), vitamin A and treatment against schistosomiasis. The outcomes of the two strategies were compared quantitatively after the intervention was completed with regard to intervention component coverage and costs. Qualitative in-depth interviews with involved health professionals, implementers and beneficiaries were carried out to determine the benefits and challenges of applied intervention components.ResultsImplementation of the EHP/PHC/CDI approach at community level as an add-on to EHP/PHC services is feasible and acceptable to health professionals, implementers and beneficiaries. Statistically significant increases were observed in intervention components coverage for LLIN among children under 5?years of age and pregnant women. Increases were also observed for HMM, vitamin A among children under 5?years of age and treatment against schistosomiasis but these increases were not statistically significant. Implementation was more costly in EHP/PHC/CDI areas than in EHP/PHC areas. Highest costs were accrued at health centre level while transport was the most expensive cost driver. The study identified certain critical factors that need to be considered and adapted to local contexts for successful implementation.ConclusionThe CDI approach is an effective means to increase accessibility of certain vital services at community level thereby strengthening delivery of EHP/PHC services. The approach can therefore complement regular EHP/PHC efforts.Trial registrationThe study was retrospectively registered with the Pan African Clinical Trial Registry TRN: PACTR201903883154921 .

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Approaches for estimating benefits and costs of interventions in plant biosecurity across invasion phases.

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