Uncertainty and Bias in Global to Regional Scale Assessments of Current and Future Coastal Flood Risk.

ABSTRACT: This study provides a literature-based comparative assessment of uncertainties and biases in global to world-regional scale assessments of current and future coastal flood risks, considering mean and extreme sea-level hazards, the propagation of these into the floodplain, people and coastal assets exposed, and their vulnerability. Globally, by far the largest bias is introduced by not considering human adaptation, which can lead to an overestimation of coastal flood risk in 2100 by up to factor 1300. But even when considering adaptation, uncertainties in how coastal societies will adapt to sea-level rise dominate with a factor of up to 27 all other uncertainties. Other large uncertainties that have been quantified globally are associated with socio-economic development (factors 2.3-5.8), d

SUBMITTER: Hinkel J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8365640 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature