Dataset Information

Estimating case fatality risk of severe Yellow Fever cases: systematic literature review and meta-analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Case fatality risk (CFR), commonly referred to as a case fatality ratio or rate, represents the probability of a disease case being fatal. It is often estimated for various diseases through analysis of surveillance data, case reports, or record examinations. Reported CFR values for Yellow Fever vary, offering wide ranges. Estimates have not been found through systematic literature review, which has been used to estimate CFR of other diseases. This study aims to estimate the case fatality risk of severe Yellow Fever cases through a systematic literature review and meta-analysis.

Methods

A search strategy was implemented in PubMed and Ovid Medline in June 2019 and updated in March 2021, seeking reported severe case counts, defined by fever and either jaundice or hemorrhaging, and the number of those that were fatal. The searches yielded 1,133 studies, and title/abstract review followed by full text review produced 14 articles reporting 32 proportions of fatal cases, 26 of which were suitable for meta-analysis. Four studies with one proportion each were added to include clinical case data from the recent outbreak in Brazil. Data were analyzed through an intercept-only logistic meta-regression with random effects for study. Values of the I² statistic measured heterogeneity across studies.

Results

The estimated CFR was 39 % (95 % CI: 31 %, 47 %). Stratifying by continent showed that South America observed a higher CFR than Africa, though fewer studies reported estimates for South America. No difference was seen between studies reporting surveillance data and studies investigating outbreaks, and no difference was seen among different symptom definitions. High heterogeneity was observed across studies.

Conclusions

Approximately 39 % of severe Yellow Fever cases are estimated to be fatal. This study provides the first systematic literature review to estimate the CFR of Yellow Fever, which can provide insight into outbreak preparedness and estimating underreporting.

SUBMITTER: Servadio JL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8365934 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundSevere fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is an emerging tick-borne infectious disease with high case fatality rate. Unfortunately, no vaccine or antiviral specifically targeting SFTS virus (SFTSV) are available for the time being. Our objective was to investigate the association between clinical laboratory parameters and fatality of SFTS patients.MethodsThe systematic review was conducted in accordance with The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses 2020 guidelines. We searched (from inception to 24th February 2022) Web of Science, PubMed, National Knowledge Infrastructure databases and Wan Fang Data for relevant researchers on SFTS. Studies were eligible if they reported on laboratory parameters of SFTS patients and were stratified by clinical outcomes. A modified version of Newcastle-Ottawa scale was used to evaluate the quality of included studies. Standardized mean difference (SMD) was used to evaluate the association between laboratory parameters and outcomes. The between-study heterogeneity was evaluated quantitatively by standard Chi-square and the index of heterogeneity (I2). Heterogeneity was explored by subgroup and sensitivity analyses, and univariable meta-regression. Publication bias was determined using funnel plots and Egger's test.ResultsWe identified 34 relevant studies, with over 3300 participants across three countries. The following factors were strongly (SMD>1 or SMD<-0.5) and significantly (P<0.05) associated mortality: thrombin time (TT) (SMD = 1.53), viral load (SMD = 1.47), activated partial-thromboplastin time (APTT) (SMD = 1.37), aspartate aminotransferase (AST) (SMD = 1.19), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) (SMD = 1.13), platelet count (PLT) (SMD = -0.47), monocyte percentage (MON%) (SMD = -0.47), lymphocyte percentage (LYM%) (SMD = -0.46) and albumin (ALB) (SMD = -0.43). Alanine aminotransferase, AST, creatin phosphokinase, LDH, PLT, partial-thromboplastin time and viral load contributed to the risk of dying of SFTS patients in each subgroup analyses. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the results above were robust.Conclusions/significanceThe abnormal levels of viral load, PLT, coagulation function and liver function, significantly increase the risk of SFTS mortality, suggesting that SFTS patients with above symptoms call for special concern.

Project description:BackgroundYellow fever is a viral hemorrhagic fever caused by yellow fever virus, a mosquito-borne flavivirus. Despite an effective vaccine, major outbreaks continue to occur around the world. Even though it is not a proven neurotropic virus, neurological symptoms in more severe clinical forms are frequent. The understanding of this apparent paradox is still rarely addressed in literature.MethodsThe brains of thirty-eight patients with yellow fever confirmed by RT-PCR, who underwent autopsy, were analyzed morphologically to identify and characterize neuropathological changes. The data were compared with brains collected from individuals without the disease, as a control group. Both cases and controls were subdivided according to the presence or absence of co-concurrent septic shock, to exclude changes of the sepsis associated encephalopathy. To verify possible morphological differences between the yellow fever cases groups, between the control groups, and between the cases and the controls, we applied the statistical tests Fisher's exact test and chi-square, with p values < 0.05 considered statistically significant.ResultsAll cases and controls presented, at least focally, neuropathological changes, which included edema, meningeal and parenchymal inflammatory infiltrate and hemorrhages, and perivascular inflammatory infiltrate. We did not find an unequivocal aspect of encephalitis. The only parameter that, after statistical analysis, can be attributed to yellow fever was the perivascular inflammatory infiltrate.ConclusionsThe neuropathological findings are sufficient to justify the multiple clinical neurologic disturbances detected in the YF cases. Since most of the parameters evaluated did not show statistically significant difference between cases and controls, an explanation for most of the neuropathological findings may be the vascular changes, consequent to shock induced endotheliopathy, associated with stimulation of the immune system inherent to systemic infectious processes. The statistical difference obtained in yellow fever cases regarding perivascular infiltrate can be can be explained by the immune activation inherent to the condition.

Project description:Background: Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is a tick-borne disease with high mortality. However, detailed analysis is lacking to explore the complex effect of sex with age or comorbidities. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was performed among 2,938 SFTS patients entered during 2011-2020 in Xinyang, China. The case fatality rate (CFR) was estimated for their association with sex, age, and comorbidities by an interactive way. The difference of immune response between sex was explored in an age dependent way. Results: An overall CFR of 15.3% (450/2,938) was obtained, which appeared to be higher in males than in females [17.7% vs. 13.6%, adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.24; 95% CI, 1.00-1.53; P = 0.048] and increased dramatically with age (P < 0.001). The associations between sex and SFTS fatal outcome were age-dependent and varied according to the status of comorbidities. The mortality-related risk conferred by older age was more pronounced in males, with aOR (95% CI) to be 5.76 (3.75-8.84) vs. 5.30 (3.54-7.95) in female. Sex-stratified analysis disclosed significant associations between death and comorbidities among female patients (aOR = 1.87, 95% CI: 1.40-2.49; P < 0.001), while none among males. Among females, the significant associations between presence of comorbidity and fatal outcome differed among age groups, with aOR (95% CI) decreased from 2.28 (1.16-4.46) in ≤60 years, to 2.06 (1.34-3.18) in 60-70 years and further to 1.55 (0.97-2.47) in >70 years. Altogether 194 SFTS patients were randomly selected for the test of B cells, natural killer (NK) cells, CD4 cells percentages, and anti-SFTSV IgM antibody level, the results revealed that males >60 years had significantly decreased percentages of B cells, CD4 cells, lower anti-SFTSV IgM antibody titer, and increased level of NK cells than male aged ≤60 years, while none of these age specific differences was observed in the females. This finding underlies the more pronounced age specific difference in CFR among male than female. Conclusions: Males had a significantly higher mortality of SFTS than did females, and more likely to be affected by aging for SFTS mortality. This difference can be explained by the effect from comorbidities and the host immunity. It is essential to take a sex- and age-based approach to SFTS treatment and management.

Project description:Importance:The global patterns and distribution of case-fatality rates (CFRs) in pediatric severe sepsis and septic shock remain poorly described. Objective:We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies of children with severe sepsis and septic shock to elucidate the patterns of CFRs in developing and developed countries over time. We also described factors associated with CFRs. Data Sources:We searched PubMed, Web of Science, Excerpta Medica database, Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), and Cochrane Central systematically for randomized clinical trials and prospective observational studies from earliest publication until January 2017, using the keywords "pediatric," "sepsis," "septic shock," and "mortality." Study Selection:Studies involving children with severe sepsis and septic shock that reported CFRs were included. Retrospective studies and studies including only neonates were excluded. Data Extraction and Synthesis:We conducted our systematic review and meta-analysis in close accordance to Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. Pooled case-fatality estimates were obtained using random-effects meta-analysis. The associations of study period, study design, sepsis severity, age, and continents in which studies occurred were assessed with meta-regression. Main Outcomes and Measures:Meta-analyses to provide pooled estimates of CFR of pediatric severe sepsis and septic shock over time. Results:Ninety-four studies that included 7561 patients were included. Pooled CFRs were higher in developing countries (31.7% [95% CI, 27.3%-36.4%]) than in developed countries (19.3% [95% CI, 16.4%-22.7%]; P < .001). Meta-analysis of CFRs also showed significant heterogeneity across studies. Continents that include mainly developing countries reported higher CFRs (adjusted odds ratios: Africa, 7.89 [95% CI, 6.02-10.32]; P < .001; Asia, 3.81 [95% CI, 3.60-4.03]; P < .001; South America, 2.91 [95% CI, 2.71-3.12]; P < .001) than North America. Septic shock was associated with higher CFRs than severe sepsis (adjusted odds ratios, 1.47 [95% CI, 1.41-1.54]). Younger age was also a risk factor (adjusted odds ratio, 0.95 [95% CI, 0.94-0.96] per year of increase in age). Earlier study eras were associated with higher CFRs (adjusted odds ratios for 1991-2000, 1.24 [95% CI, 1.13-1.37]; P < .001) compared with 2011 to 2016. Time-trend analysis showed higher CFRs over time in developing countries than developed countries. Conclusions and Relevance:Despite the declining trend of pediatric severe sepsis and septic shock CFRs, the disparity between developing and developed countries persists. Further characterizations of vulnerable populations and collaborations between developed and developing countries are warranted to reduce the burden of pediatric sepsis globally.

Project description:The new coronavirus (COVID-19) infection reported in China in December 2019 has become a pandemic in a few weeks, affecting the entire world. In this respect, it is crucial to determine the case-increase, case-fatality, and case-recovery rates to control COVID-19. In this study, the case-increase, case-fatality, and case-recovery rates of COVID-19 in 36 European countries were analyzed with the meta-analysis method using data released by the health organizations and WHO. The data were obtained from the website of health organizations of 36 European countries and the website of WHO until 11 May 2020. The analyses were carried out on 1 744 704 COVID-19-diagnosed cases in 36 European countries. The case-increase, case-fatality and case-recovery rates of COVID-19 were calculated using 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), single-arm meta-analysis, cross-temporal meta-analysis, and meta-regression random-effects model. The standardized case-increase rate of COVID-19 is 5% (95% CI [0.040, 0.063]) and the average case-increase rate in European countries has started to decline by around 3% (95% CI [0.047, 0.083]) weekly. The countries with the highest rate of case increase are Belgium, Sweden, Russia, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. Although the case-fatality rate of COVID-19 patients was 4.5% as of May 11 (95% CI [0.037-0.055]), this rate is 6.3% (95% CI [0.047, 0.083]) in standardized time (6th week). The case-recovery rates of patients are 46% (95% CI [0.376-0.547]). This study presents important results regarding the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. Although the rate of increase in new COVID-19 cases has dropped, there is not much decline in the case-fatality rates and no increase in case-recovery rates. The case-fatality rate of COVID-19 in Europe was estimated to be in the range of 4% to 4.5% and a minimum of 4 weeks (as of 11 May) is expected to have the figure below 1% in a country with an average case-increase rate. Monitoring case fatalities in Belgium, the Netherlands and Sweden, and treatment successes in Germany and Austria play a role of utmost importance.