Predicting drug approvals: The Novartis data science and artificial intelligence challenge.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Siah KW
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8369231 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Artificial intelligence (AI) and other data-driven technologies hold great promise to transform healthcare and confer the predictive power essential to precision medicine. However, the existing biomedical data, which are a vital resource and foundation for developing medical AI models, do not reflect the diversity of the human population. The low representation in biomedical data has become a significant health risk for non-European populations, and the growing application of AI opens a new pathway for this health risk to manifest and amplify. Here we review the current status of biomedical data inequality and present a conceptual framework for understanding its impacts on machine learning. We also discuss the recent advances in algorithmic interventions for mitigating health disparities arising from biomedical data inequality. Finally, we briefly discuss the newly identified disparity in data quality among ethnic groups and its potential impacts on machine learning.
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Project description:Cytotoxic T-lymphocyte-associated protein 4 (CTLA-4) plays a pivotal role in preventing autoimmunity and fostering anticancer immunity by interacting with B7 proteins CD80 and CD86. CTLA-4 is the first immune checkpoint targeted with a monoclonal antibody inhibitor. Checkpoint inhibitors have generated durable responses in many cancer patients, representing a revolutionary milestone in cancer immunotherapy. However, therapeutic efficacy is limited to a small portion of patients, and immune-related adverse events are noteworthy, especially for monoclonal antibodies directed against CTLA-4. Previously, small molecules have been developed to impair the CTLA-4: CD80 interaction; however, they directly targeted CD80 and not CTLA-4. In this study, we performed artificial intelligence (AI)-powered virtual screening of approximately ten million compounds to target CTLA-4. We validated primary hits with biochemical, biophysical, immunological, and experimental animal assays. We then optimized lead compounds and obtained inhibitors with an inhibitory concentration of 1 micromole in disrupting the interaction between CTLA-4 and CD80. Unlike ipilimumab, these small molecules did not degrade CTLA-4. Several compounds inhibited tumor development prophylactically and therapeutically in syngeneic and CTLA-4-humanized mice. This project supports an AI-based framework in designing small molecules targeting immune checkpoints for cancer therapy.
2024-02-15 | GSE228560 | GEO
Project description:The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has been actively promoting the use of real-world data (RWD) in drug development. RWD can generate important real-world evidence reflecting the real-world clinical environment where the treatments are used. Meanwhile, artificial intelligence (AI), especially machine- and deep-learning (ML/DL) methods, have been increasingly used across many stages of the drug development process. Advancements in AI have also provided new strategies to analyze large, multidimensional RWD. Thus, we conducted a rapid review of articles from the past 20 years, to provide an overview of the drug development studies that use both AI and RWD. We found that the most popular applications were adverse event detection, trial recruitment, and drug repurposing. Here, we also discuss current research gaps and future opportunities.
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Project description:BackgroundPrimary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) patients have a risk of developing cholangiocarcinoma (CCA). Establishing predictive models for CCA in PSC is important.MethodsIn a large cohort of 1,459 PSC patients seen at Mayo Clinic (1993-2020), we quantified the impact of clinical/laboratory variables on CCA development using univariate and multivariate Cox models and predicted CCA using statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) approaches. We explored plasma bile acid (BA) levels' predictive power of CCA (subset of 300 patients, BA cohort).ResultsEight significant risk factors (false discovery rate: 20%) were identified with univariate analysis; prolonged inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) was the most important one. IBD duration, PSC duration, and total bilirubin remained significant (p < 0.05) with multivariate analysis. Clinical/laboratory variables predicted CCA with cross-validated C-indexes of 0.68-0.71 at different time points of disease, significantly better compared to commonly used PSC risk scores. Lower chenodeoxycholic acid, higher conjugated fraction of lithocholic acid and hyodeoxycholic acid, and higher ratio of cholic acid to chenodeoxycholic acid were predictive of CCA. BAs predicted CCA with a cross-validated C-index of 0.66 (std: 0.11, BA cohort), similar to clinical/laboratory variables (C-index = 0.64, std: 0.11, BA cohort). Combining BAs with clinical/laboratory variables leads to the best average C-index of 0.67 (std: 0.13, BA cohort).ConclusionsIn a large PSC cohort, we identified clinical and laboratory risk factors for CCA development and demonstrated the first AI based predictive models that performed significantly better than commonly used PSC risk scores. More predictive data modalities are needed for clinical adoption of these models.
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Project description:Failure to attend scheduled hospital appointments disrupts clinical management and consumes resource estimated at £1 billion annually in the United Kingdom National Health Service alone. Accurate stratification of absence risk can maximize the yield of preventative interventions. The wide multiplicity of potential causes, and the poor performance of systems based on simple, linear, low-dimensional models, suggests complex predictive models of attendance are needed. Here, we quantify the effect of using complex, non-linear, high-dimensional models enabled by machine learning. Models systematically varying in complexity based on logistic regression, support vector machines, random forests, AdaBoost, or gradient boosting machines were trained and evaluated on an unselected set of 22,318 consecutive scheduled magnetic resonance imaging appointments at two UCL hospitals. High-dimensional Gradient Boosting Machine-based models achieved the best performance reported in the literature, exhibiting an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.852 and average precision of 0.511. Optimal predictive performance required 81 variables. Simulations showed net potential benefit across a wide range of attendance characteristics, peaking at £3.15 per appointment at current prevalence and call efficiency. Optimal attendance prediction requires more complex models than have hitherto been applied in the field, reflecting the complex interplay of patient, environmental, and operational causal factors. Far from an exotic luxury, high-dimensional models based on machine learning are likely essential to optimal scheduling amongst other operational aspects of hospital care. High predictive performance is achievable with data from a single institution, obviating the need for aggregating large-scale sensitive data across governance boundaries.
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Project description:Background and study aims Scoring endoscopic disease activity in colitis represents a complex task for artificial intelligence (AI), but is seen as a worthwhile goal for clinical and research use cases. To date, development attempts have relied on large datasets, achieving reasonable results when comparing normal to active inflammation, but not when generating subscores for the Mayo Endoscopic Score (MES) or ulcerative colitis endoscopic index of severity (UCEIS). Patients and methods Using a multi-task learning framework, with frame-by-frame analysis, we developed a machine-learning algorithm (MLA) for UCEIS trained on just 38,124 frames (73 patients with biopsy-proven ulcerative colitis). Scores generated by the MLA were compared to consensus scores from three independent human reviewers. Results Accuracy and agreement (kappa) were calculated for the following differentiation tasks: (1) normal mucosa vs active inflammation (UCEIS 0 vs ≥ 1; accuracy 0.90, κ = 0.90); (2) mild inflammation vs moderate-severe (UCEIS 0-3 vs ≥ 4; accuracy 0.98, κ = 0.96); (3) generating total UCEIS score (κ = 0.92). Agreement for UCEIS subdomains was also high (κ = 0.80, 0.83 and 0.88 for vascular pattern, bleeding and erosions respectively). Conclusions We have demonstrated that, using modified data science techniques and a relatively smaller datasets, it is possible to achieve high levels of accuracy and agreement with human reviewers (in some cases near-perfect), for AI in colitis scoring. Further work will focus on refining this technique, but we hope that it can be used in other tasks to facilitate faster development.
| S-EPMC9010092 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundCardiac arrest is a life-threatening cessation of activity in the heart. Early prediction of cardiac arrest is important, as it allows for the necessary measures to be taken to prevent or intervene during the onset. Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies and big data have been increasingly used to enhance the ability to predict and prepare for the patients at risk.ObjectiveThis study aims to explore the use of AI technology in predicting cardiac arrest as reported in the literature.MethodsA scoping review was conducted in line with the guidelines of the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) extension for scoping reviews. Scopus, ScienceDirect, Embase, the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, and Google Scholar were searched to identify relevant studies. Backward reference list checks of the included studies were also conducted. Study selection and data extraction were independently conducted by 2 reviewers. Data extracted from the included studies were synthesized narratively.ResultsOut of 697 citations retrieved, 41 studies were included in the review, and 6 were added after backward citation checking. The included studies reported the use of AI in the prediction of cardiac arrest. Of the 47 studies, we were able to classify the approaches taken by the studies into 3 different categories: 26 (55%) studies predicted cardiac arrest by analyzing specific parameters or variables of the patients, whereas 16 (34%) studies developed an AI-based warning system. The remaining 11% (5/47) of studies focused on distinguishing patients at high risk of cardiac arrest from patients who were not at risk. Two studies focused on the pediatric population, and the rest focused on adults (45/47, 96%). Most of the studies used data sets with a size of <10,000 samples (32/47, 68%). Machine learning models were the most prominent branch of AI used in the prediction of cardiac arrest in the studies (38/47, 81%), and the most used algorithm was the neural network (23/47, 49%). K-fold cross-validation was the most used algorithm evaluation tool reported in the studies (24/47, 51%).ConclusionsAI is extensively used to predict cardiac arrest in different patient settings. Technology is expected to play an integral role in improving cardiac medicine. There is a need for more reviews to learn the obstacles to the implementation of AI technologies in clinical settings. Moreover, research focusing on how to best provide clinicians with support to understand, adapt, and implement this technology in their practice is also necessary.
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Project description: Not available
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