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Managing school interaction networks during the COVID-19 pandemic: Agent-based modeling for evaluating possible scenarios when students go back to classrooms.

ABSTRACT: The most unexpected and toughest phenomenon that has occurred in recent times is the global COVID-19 pandemic. One of the first measures to prevent the spread of the disease was to close educational institutions. The students were forced to start a learning process through social networks and web platforms. In some countries, a return to face-to-face classes was established. However, weeks later, some of them had to return to virtual activities due to an upswing in the COVID-19 cases. In Mexico, classes have been held virtually, with face-to-face activities only re-established in two of the 32 states. In our state, Yucatan, scholarly activities are still virtual. In this work, the dispersion of COVID-19 at different academic establishments in Yucatan was simulated. Networks of Friendship, noncordial treatment, family ties and study groups were considered. Based on these networks, we evaluated the possibility of returning to school without inducing a rebound in the COVID-19 cases in the state. Agent-based simulations were used, with each student as an agent. Interaction rules were established based on international research regarding good practices in times of COVID-19. We used seven networks from different academic institutions, ranging from primary through college level. As a result, possible contagion curves were obtained for different scenarios, which leads to a discussion about the measures that would be relevant once a return to face-to-face classes is overseen. Simulations show that isolating students and reducing the number of students in the same classroom are good strategies and substantially reduce the possible contagiousness.

SUBMITTER: Hernandez-Hernandez AM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8372954 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundThousands of school systems have struggled with the decisions about how to deliver education safely and effectively amid the COVID19 pandemic. This study evaluates the public health impact of various school reopening scenarios (when, and how to return to in-person instruction) on the spread of COVID19.MethodsAn agent-based simulation model was adapted and used to project the impact of various school reopening strategies on the number of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths in the state of Georgia during the study period, i.e., February 18th-November 24th, 2020. The tested strategies include (i) schools closed, i.e., all students receive online instruction, (ii) alternating school day, i.e., half of the students receive in-person instruction on Mondays and Wednesdays and the other half on Tuesdays and Thursdays, (iii) alternating school day for children, i.e., half of the children (ages 0-9) receive in-person instruction on Mondays and Wednesdays and the other half on Tuesdays and Thursdays, (iv) children only, i.e., only children receive in-person instruction, (v) regular, i.e., all students return to in-person instruction. We also tested the impact of universal masking in schools.ResultsAcross all scenarios, the number of COVID19-related deaths ranged from approximately 8.8 to 9.9 thousand, the number of cumulative infections ranged from 1.76 to 1.96 million for adults and 625 to 771 thousand for children and youth, and the number of COVID19-related hospitalizations ranged from approximately 71 to 80 thousand during the study period. Compared to schools reopening August 10 with a regular reopening strategy, the percentage of the population infected reduced by 13%, 11%, 9%, and 6% in the schools closed, alternating school day for children, children only, and alternating school day reopening strategies, respectively. Universal masking in schools for all students further reduced outcome measures.ConclusionsReopening schools following a regular reopening strategy would lead to higher deaths, hospitalizations, and infections. Hybrid in-person and online reopening strategies, especially if offered as an option to families and teachers who prefer to opt-in, provide a good balance in reducing the infection spread compared to the regular reopening strategy, while ensuring access to in-person education.

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Managing school interaction networks during the COVID-19 pandemic: Agent-based modeling for evaluating possible scenarios when students go back to classrooms.

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