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Novel mortality-predicting index at diagnosis can effectively predict all-cause mortality in patients with antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated vasculitis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

This study investigated whether the inflammation prognostic index (IPI) and the mortality predicting index (MPI) at diagnosis could predict all-cause mortality in patients with antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated vasculitis (AAV).

Methods

We included 223 AAV patients and reviewed their medical records. Clinical and laboratory data and AAV-specific indices at diagnosis were assessed. The IPI was calculated as neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) × C-reactive protein to albumin ratio (CAR). Here, we newly developed an MPI (NLR × CAR × monocyte counts).

Results

The mean age of 223 patients (122 MPA, 57 GPA and 44 EGPA patients) was 59 years. The rate of mortality was 11.2%. Using the receiver operator characteristic curve for all-cause mortality, the cut-offs were calculated as NLR: 3.22, CAR: 3.25, IPI: 18.53 and MPI: 8367.82. In the univariable Cox hazard analysis, age, gender, smoking history, BVAS, FFS and over the cut-off of each index showed statistical significance. As the indices share at least two mutual variables, the multivariable analysis was conducted four times based on each index. An IPI ≥18.53 (HR 3.162) and MPI ≥8367.82 (HR 3.356) were significantly associated with all-cause mortality.

Conclusions

This study developed a novel indicator, MPI, that uses the existing NLR and CAR indices and proved that it could predict all-cause mortality in AAV patients.

SUBMITTER: Do H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8373352 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Background: Patients with antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated vasculitis (AAV) may require intensive care unit (ICU) admission due to different reasons, and the in-ICU mortality is high among AAV patients. The aim of this study was to explore the clinical features and risk factors of mortality of patients with AAV in the ICU. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted based on 83 AAV patients admitted to the ICU in a tertiary medical institution in China. Data on clinical characteristics, laboratory tests, treatment in ICU and outcomes were collected. The data were analyzed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis to explore the variables that were independently related to mortality. Kaplan-Meier method was used to assess the long-term survival. Results: Among the 83 patients, 41 (49.4%) were female. The mean age of patients was 66 ± 13 years. Forty-four patients deceased, with the in-ICU mortality of 53%. The most common cause for ICU admission was active vasculitis (40/83, 48.2%). The main cause of death was infection (27/44, 61.4%) followed by active vasculitis (15/44, 34.1%). A multivariate analysis revealed that the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) at ICU admission (OR = 1.333, 95% CI: 1.031-1.722) and respiratory failure (OR = 620.452, 95% CI: 11.495-33490.306) were independent risk factors of in-ICU death. However, hemoglobin (OR = 0.919, 95% CI: 0.849-0.995) was an independent protective factor. The nomogram established in this study was practical in predicting the risk of in-ICU mortality for AAV patients. Moreover, for 39 patients survived to the ICU stay, the cumulative survival rates at 0.5, 1, and 5 years were 58.3%, 54.2%, and 33.9%, respectively, and the median survival time was 14 months. Conclusion: In our study, active vasculitis was the most frequent reason for ICU admission, and the main cause of death was infection. APACHE II and respiratory failure were independent risk factors while hemoglobin was an independent protective factor of in-ICU mortality for AAV patients admitted to the ICU. The risk prediction model developed in this study may be a useful tool for clinicians in early recognition of high-risk patients and applying appropriate management.

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