Despite vaccination, China needs non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent widespread outbreaks of COVID-19 in 2021.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Yang J
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8373613 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundNunavut, the northernmost Arctic territory of Canada, experienced three community outbreaks of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from early November 2020 to mid-June 2021. We sought to investigate how non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination affected the course of these outbreaks.MethodsWe used an agent-based model of disease transmission to simulate COVID-19 outbreaks in Nunavut. The model encapsulated demographics and household structure of the population, the effect of NPIs, and daily number of vaccine doses administered. We fitted the model to inferred, back-calculated infections from incidence data reported from October 2020 to June 2021. We then compared the fit of the scenario based on case count data with several counterfactual scenarios without the effect of NPIs, without vaccination, and with a hypothetical accelerated vaccination program whereby 98% of the vaccine supply was administered to eligible individuals.ResultsWe found that, without a territory-wide lockdown during the first COVID-19 outbreak in November 2020, the peak of infections would have been 4.7 times higher with a total of 5,404 (95% CrI: 5,015-5,798) infections before the start of vaccination on January 6, 2021. Without effective NPIs, we estimated a total of 4,290 (95% CrI: 3,880-4,708) infections during the second outbreak under the pace of vaccination administered in Nunavut. In a hypothetical accelerated vaccine rollout, the total infections during the second Nunavut outbreak would have been 58% lower, to 1,812 (95% CrI: 1,593-2,039) infections. Vaccination was estimated to have the largest impact during the outbreak in April 2021, averting 15,196 (95% CrI: 14,798-15,591) infections if the disease had spread through Nunavut communities. Accelerated vaccination would have further reduced the total infections to 243 (95% CrI: 222-265) even in the absence of NPIs.ConclusionsNPIs have been essential in mitigating pandemic outbreaks in this large, geographically distanced and remote territory. While vaccination has the greatest impact to prevent infection and severe outcomes, public health implementation of NPIs play an essential role in the short term before attaining high levels of immunity in the population.
| S-EPMC9130454 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This SuperSeries is composed of the SubSeries listed below.
2017-02-08 | GSE93407 | GEO
Project description:BackgroundIn resource-limited settings where laboratory capacity is limited and response strategy is non-specific, delayed or inappropriate intervention against outbreaks of Norovirus (NoV) are common. Here we report interventions of two norovirus outbreaks, which highlight the importance of evidence-based modeling and assessment to identify infection sources and formulate effective response strategies.MethodsSpatiotemporal scanning, mathematical and random walk modeling predicted the modes of transmission in the two incidents, which were supported by laboratory results and intervention outcomes.ResultsSimulation results indicated that contaminated water was 14 to 500 fold more infectious than infected individuals. Asymptomatic individuals were not effective transmitters. School closure for up to a week still could not contain the outbreak unless the duration was extended to 10 or more days. The total attack rates (TARs) for waterborne NoV outbreaks reported in China (n = 3, median = 4.37) were significantly (p < 0.05) lower than worldwide (n = 14, median = 41.34). The low TARs are likely due to the high number of the affected population.ConclusionsWe found that school closure alone could not contain Norovirus outbreaks. Overlooked personal hygiene may serve as a hotbed for infectious disease transmission. Our results reveal that evidence-based investigations can facilitate timely interventions of Norovirus transmission.
| S-EPMC5059926 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundDuring Feb-Apr. 2020, many countries implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as school closures and lockdowns, to control the COVID-19 pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Overall, these interventions seem to have reduced the spread of the pandemic. We hypothesized that the official and effective start dates of NPIs can be noticeably different, for example, due to slow adoption by the population, and that these differences can lead to errors in the estimation of the impact of NPIs.MethodsSEIR models were fitted to case data from 12 regions to infer the effective start dates of interventions and compare these with the official dates. The impact of NPIs was estimated from the inferred model parameters.ResultsWe infer mostly late effective start dates of interventions. For example, Italy implemented a lockdown on Mar 11, but we infer the effective start date on Mar 17 (+3.05-2.01 days 95% CI). Moreover, we find that the impact of NPIs can be underestimated if it is assumed they start on their official date.ConclusionsDifferences between the official and effective start of NPIs are likely. Neglecting such differences can lead to underestimation of the impact of NPIs, which could cause decision-makers to escalate interventions and guidelines.
| S-EPMC8720386 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundNon-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are the cornerstone of infectious disease outbreak response in the absence of effective pharmaceutical interventions. Outbreak strategies often involve combinations of NPIs that may change according to disease prevalence and population response. Little is known with regard to how costly each NPI is to implement. This information is essential to inform policy decisions for outbreak response.ObjectiveTo address this gap in existing literature, we conducted a systematic review on outbreak costings and simulation studies related to a number of NPI strategies, including isolating infected individuals, contact tracing and quarantine, and school closures.MethodsOur search covered the MEDLINE and EMBASE databases, studies published between 1990 and 24 March 2020 were included. We included studies containing cost data for our NPIs of interest in pandemic, epidemic, and outbreak response scenarios.ResultsWe identified 61 relevant studies. There was substantial heterogeneity in the cost components recorded for NPIs in outbreak costing studies. The direct costs of NPIs for which costing studies existed also ranged widely: isolating infected individuals per case: US$141.18 to US$1042.68 (2020 values), tracing and quarantine of contacts per contact: US$40.73 to US$93.59, social distancing: US$33.76 to US$167.92, personal protection and hygiene: US$0.15 to US$895.60.ConclusionWhile there are gaps and heterogeneity in available cost data, the findings of this review and the collated cost database serve as an important resource for evidence-based decision-making for estimating costs pertaining to NPI implementation in future outbreak response policies.
| S-EPMC8192223 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Against the current COVID-19 pandemic, governments worldwide have devised a variety of non-pharmaceutical interventions to mitigate it. However, it is generally difficult to estimate the joint impact of different control strategies. In this paper, we tackle this question with an extended epidemic SEIR model, informed by a socio-political classification of different interventions. First, we inquire the conceptual effect of mitigation parameters on the infection curve. Then, we illustrate the potential of our model to reproduce and explain empirical data from a number of countries, to perform cross-country comparisons. This gives information on the best synergies of interventions to control epidemic outbreaks while minimising impact on socio-economic needs. For instance, our results suggest that, while rapid and strong lockdown is an effective pandemic mitigation measure, a combination of social distancing and early contact tracing can achieve similar mitigation synergistically, while keeping lower isolation rates. This quantitative understanding can support the establishment of mid- and long-term interventions, to prepare containment strategies against further outbreaks. This paper also provides an online tool that allows researchers and decision makers to interactively simulate diverse scenarios with our model.
| S-EPMC8139462 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe dynamics of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 are complicated by age-dependent factors, changing levels of infection, and the relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) as the perceived risk declines, necessitating the use of mathematical models. Our aims were to use epidemiological data from the UK together with estimates of vaccine efficacy to predict the possible long-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 under the planned vaccine rollout.MethodsIn this study, we used a mathematical model structured by age and UK region, fitted to a range of epidemiological data in the UK, which incorporated the planned rollout of a two-dose vaccination programme (doses 12 weeks apart, protection onset 14 days after vaccination). We assumed default vaccine uptake of 95% in those aged 80 years and older, 85% in those aged 50-79 years, and 75% in those aged 18-49 years, and then varied uptake optimistically and pessimistically. Vaccine efficacy against symptomatic disease was assumed to be 88% on the basis of Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines being administered in the UK, and protection against infection was varied from 0% to 85%. We considered the combined interaction of the UK vaccination programme with multiple potential future relaxations (or removals) of NPIs, to predict the reproduction number (R) and pattern of daily deaths and hospital admissions due to COVID-19 from January, 2021, to January, 2024.FindingsWe estimate that vaccination alone is insufficient to contain the outbreak. In the absence of NPIs, even with our most optimistic assumption that the vaccine will prevent 85% of infections, we estimate R to be 1·58 (95% credible intervals [CI] 1·36-1·84) once all eligible adults have been offered both doses of the vaccine. Under the default uptake scenario, removal of all NPIs once the vaccination programme is complete is predicted to lead to 21 400 deaths (95% CI 1400-55 100) due to COVID-19 for a vaccine that prevents 85% of infections, although this number increases to 96 700 deaths (51 800-173 200) if the vaccine only prevents 60% of infections. Although vaccination substantially reduces total deaths, it only provides partial protection for the individual; we estimate that, for the default uptake scenario and 60% protection against infection, 48·3% (95% CI 48·1-48·5) and 16·0% (15·7-16·3) of deaths will be in individuals who have received one or two doses of the vaccine, respectively.InterpretationFor all vaccination scenarios we investigated, our predictions highlight the risks associated with early or rapid relaxation of NPIs. Although novel vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 offer a potential exit strategy for the pandemic, success is highly contingent on the precise vaccine properties and population uptake, both of which need to be carefully monitored.FundingNational Institute for Health Research, Medical Research Council, and UK Research and Innovation.
| S-EPMC7972312 | biostudies-literature
Project description:What is already known about this topic?HIV transmission among serodiscordant couples remains a persistent issue in China. However, the practice of combining counseling with antiretroviral therapies (ART) to enhance ART adherence is not widely implemented or recommended in Chinese health guidelines.What is added by this report?This randomized controlled trial suggests that increased follow-up, counseling, and awareness of HIV risk can enhance ART compliance, thereby maximizing treatment efficacy.What are the implications for public health practice?Early testing and counseling of serodiscordant couples, following the identification of a human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) positive spouse, is crucial for initiating ART and reducing the risk of seroconversion in the uninfected partner. Implementing a combination of ART and adjunct counseling in China is advisable.
| S-EPMC11252052 | biostudies-literature
Project description:On 11 March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) a pandemic1. The strategies based on non-pharmaceutical interventions that were used to contain the outbreak in China appear to be effective2, but quantitative research is still needed to assess the efficacy of non-pharmaceutical interventions and their timings3. Here, using epidemiological data on COVID-19 and anonymized data on human movement4,5, we develop a modelling framework that uses daily travel networks to simulate different outbreak and intervention scenarios across China. We estimate that there were a total of 114,325 cases of COVID-19 (interquartile range 76,776-164,576) in mainland China as of 29 February 2020. Without non-pharmaceutical interventions, we predict that the number of cases would have been 67-fold higher (interquartile range 44-94-fold) by 29 February 2020, and we find that the effectiveness of different interventions varied. We estimate that early detection and isolation of cases prevented more infections than did travel restrictions and contact reductions, but that a combination of non-pharmaceutical interventions achieved the strongest and most rapid effect. According to our model, the lifting of travel restrictions from 17 February 2020 does not lead to an increase in cases across China if social distancing interventions can be maintained, even at a limited level of an on average 25% reduction in contact between individuals that continues until late April. These findings improve our understanding of the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19, and will inform response efforts across the world.
| S-EPMC7116778 | biostudies-literature
Project description:There are two common household disinfection interventions to prevent interhousehold transmission of cholera: household spraying, whereby a team disinfects cholera patients' households, and household disinfection kits (HDKs), whereby cleaning materials are provided to cholera patients' family members. Currently, both interventions lack evidence, and international agencies recommend HDK distribution; however, household spraying remains widely implemented. To understand this disconnect, we conducted 14 key informant interviews with international and national responders and a study in Haiti assessing HDK efficacy using two training modules including 20 household surveys and 327 surfaces samples before and after cleaning. During interviews, 80% of the international-level informants discussed evidence gaps for both interventions, and 60% preferred HDKs. Conversely, no national-level informants knew what an HDK was; therefore, they all preferred spraying. Informants discussed behavior changes, bleach perceptions, and implementation as facilitators and/or barriers to implementing both interventions. In households, training with demonstrations regarding the use of HDK led to increased reductions of Escherichia coli (P < 0.001) and Vibrio spp. (P < 0.001) on surfaces after participants cleaned the household compared with a hygiene promotion session only. These results emphasize the gap between the current international-level policy and the realities of cholera response programs, highlight the need for evidence to align household disinfection recommendations, and underscore the importance of the dissemination and training of responders and affected populations regarding methods to prevent intrahousehold cholera transmission.
| S-EPMC8592341 | biostudies-literature