Dataset Information

Pandemic-associated mobility restrictions could cause increases in dengue virus transmission.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has induced unprecedented reductions in human mobility and social contacts throughout the world. Because dengue virus (DENV) transmission is strongly driven by human mobility, behavioral changes associated with the pandemic have been hypothesized to impact dengue incidence. By discouraging human contact, COVID-19 control measures have also disrupted dengue vector control interventions, the most effective of which require entry into homes. We sought to investigate how and why dengue incidence could differ under a lockdown scenario with a proportion of the population sheltered at home.

Methodology & principal findings

We used an agent-based model with a realistic treatment of human mobility and vector control. We found that a lockdown in which 70% of the population sheltered at home and which occurred in a season when a new serotype invaded could lead to a small average increase in cumulative DENV infections of up to 10%, depending on the time of year lockdown occurred. Lockdown had a more pronounced effect on the spatial distribution of DENV infections, with higher incidence under lockdown in regions with higher mosquito abundance. Transmission was also more focused in homes following lockdown. The proportion of people infected in their own home rose from 54% under normal conditions to 66% under lockdown, and the household secondary attack rate rose from 0.109 to 0.128, a 17% increase. When we considered that lockdown measures could disrupt regular, city-wide vector control campaigns, the increase in incidence was more pronounced than with lockdown alone, especially if lockdown occurred at the optimal time for vector control.

Conclusions & significance

Our results indicate that an unintended outcome of lockdown measures may be to adversely alter the epidemiology of dengue. This observation has important implications for an improved understanding of dengue epidemiology and effective application of dengue vector control. When coordinating public health responses during a syndemic, it is important to monitor multiple infections and understand that an intervention against one disease may exacerbate another.

SUBMITTER: Cavany SM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8375978 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundDengue virus (DENV) research has historically been hampered by the lack of a susceptible vertebrate transmission model. Recently, there has been progress towards such models using several varieties of knockout mice, particularly those deficient in type I and II interferon receptors. Based on the critical nature of the type I interferon response in limiting DENV infection establishment, we assessed the permissiveness of a mouse strain with a blunted type I interferon response via gene deficiencies in interferon regulatory factors 3 and 7 (IRF3/7 -/- -/-) with regards to DENV transmission success. We investigated the possibility of transmission to the mouse by needle and infectious mosquito, and subsequent transmission back to mosquito from an infected animal during its viremic period.MethodsMice were inoculated subcutaneously with non-mouse adapted DENV-2 strain 1232 and serum was tested for viral load and cytokine production each day. Additionally, mosquitoes were orally challenged with the same DENV-2 strain via artificial membrane feeder, and then allowed to forage or naïve mice. Subsequently, we determined acquisition potential by allowing naïve mosquitoes on forage on exposed mice during their viremic period.ResultsBoth needle inoculation and infectious mosquito bite(s) resulted in 100% infection. Significant differences between these groups in viremia on the two days leading to peak viremia were observed, though no significant difference in cytokine production was seen. Through our determination of transmission and acquisition potentials, the transmission cycle (mouse-to mosquito-to mouse) was completed. We confirmed that the IRF3/7 -/- -/- mouse supports DENV replication and is competent for transmission experiments, with the ability to use a non-mouse adapted DENV-2 strain. A significant finding of this study was that this IRF3/7 -/- -/- mouse strain was able to be infected by and transmit virus to mosquitoes, thus providing means to replicate the natural transmission cycle of DENV.ConclusionAs there is currently no approved vaccine for DENV, public health monitoring and a greater understanding of transmission dynamics leading to outbreak events are critical. The further characterization of DENV using this model will expand knowledge of key entomological, virological and immunological components of infection establishment and transmission events.