Publisher Correction: Seasonal forecasts offer economic benefit for hydrological decision making in semi-arid regions.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Portele TC
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8376982 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Increasing frequencies of droughts require proactive preparedness, particularly in semi-arid regions. As forecasting of such hydrometeorological extremes several months ahead allows for necessary climate proofing, we assess the potential economic value of the seasonal forecasting system SEAS5 for decision making in water management. For seven drought-prone regions analyzed in America, Africa, and Asia, the relative frequency of drought months significantly increased from 10 to 30% between 1981 and 2018. We demonstrate that seasonal forecast-based action for droughts achieves potential economic savings up to 70% of those from optimal early action. For very warm months and droughts, savings of at least 20% occur even for forecast horizons of several months. Our in-depth analysis for the Upper-Atbara dam in Sudan reveals avoidable losses of 16 Mio US$ in one example year for early-action based drought reservoir operation. These findings stress the advantage and necessity of considering seasonal forecasts in hydrological decision making.
| S-EPMC8134578 | biostudies-literature
Project description:An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.
| S-EPMC6597713 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundLarge spatial, seasonal and annual variability of major drivers of the carbon cycle (precipitation, temperature, fire regime and nutrient availability) are common in the Sahel region. This causes large variability in net ecosystem exchange and in vegetation productivity, the subsistence basis for a major part of the rural population in Sahel. This study compares the 2005 dry and wet season fluxes of CO2 for a grass land/sparse savanna site in semi arid Sudan and relates these fluxes to water availability and incoming photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD). Data from this site could complement the current sparse observation network in Africa, a continent where climatic change could significantly impact the future and which constitute a weak link in our understanding of the global carbon cycle.ResultsThe dry season (represented by Julian day 35-46, February 2005) was characterized by low soil moisture availability, low evapotranspiration and a high vapor pressure deficit. The mean daily NEE (net ecosystem exchange, Eq. 1) was -14.7 mmol d-1 for the 12 day period (negative numbers denote sinks, i.e. flux from the atmosphere to the biosphere). The water use efficiency (WUE) was 1.6 mmol CO2 mol H2O-1 and the light use efficiency (LUE) was 0.95 mmol CO2 mol PPFD-1. Photosynthesis is a weak, but linear function of PPFD. The wet season (represented by Julian day 266-273, September 2005) was, compared to the dry season, characterized by slightly higher soil moisture availability, higher evapotranspiration and a slightly lower vapor pressure deficit. The mean daily NEE was -152 mmol d-1 for the 8 day period. The WUE was lower, 0.97 mmol CO2 mol H2O-1 and the LUE was higher, 7.2 mumol CO2 mmol PPFD-1 during the wet season compared to the dry season. During the wet season photosynthesis increases with PPFD to about 1600 mumol m-2s-1 and then levels off.ConclusionBased on data collected during two short periods, the studied ecosystem was a sink of carbon both during the dry and wet season 2005. The small sink during the dry season is surprising and similar dry season sinks have not to our knowledge been reported from other similar savanna ecosystems and could have potential management implications for agroforestry. A strong response of NEE versus small changes in plant available soil water content was found. Collection and analysis of flux data for several consecutive years including variations in precipitation, available soil moisture and labile soil carbon are needed for understanding the year to year variation of the carbon budget of this grass land/sparse savanna site in semi arid Sudan.
| S-EPMC2632635 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Higher aridity and more extreme rainfall events in drylands are predicted under climate change. Yet it is unclear how changing precipitation regimes may affect nitrogen (N) cycling, especially in areas with extremely high aridity. Here we investigated soil N isotopic values (M-NM-415N) along a 3200 km aridity gradient and show a hump-shaped relationship between soil M-NM-415N and aridity index (AI) with a threshold at AI=0.32. Also, using a micro-array metageomics tool named GeoChip 5.0, we showed that Variations of nitrification and denitrification gene abundance along the gradient which provide further evidence for the existence of this threshold. Data support the hypothesis that the increase of gaseous N losses is higher than the increase of net plant N accumulation with increasing AI below AI=0.32, while the opposite is favoured above this threshold. Our results suggest the importance of N-cycling microbes in extremely dry areas and the different controlling factors of N cycling on the either side of the threshold.
2014-09-03 | E-MTAB-2722 | biostudies-arrayexpress
Project description:Although condensed tannins (CTs) are known to reduce forage intake by mammalian herbivores in controlled experiments, few studies have tested these effects in the field. Thus the role of CTs on foraging ecology of free-ranging herbivores is inadequately understood. To investigate the effects of CTs under natural savanna conditions, we pre-dosed groups of goats with polyethylene glycol (PEG, a CT-neutralising chemical), CT powder or water before observing their foraging behaviour. While accounting for the effects of season and time of the day, we tested the hypothesis that herbivores forage in ways that reduce the intake rate (g DM per minute) of CTs. We expected pre-dosing goats with CTs to reduce CT intake rates by (1) consuming diets low in CTs, (2) reducing bite rates, (3) increasing the number of foraging bouts, or (4) reducing the length of foraging bouts. Lastly, (5) expected CT to have no influence the number of dietary forage species. In both wet and dry seasons, pre-dosing goats with CTs resulted in lower CT consumption rates compared to PEG goats which seemed relieved from the stress associated with CT consumption. During dry season, the number of dietary forage species was similar across treatments, although goats that were dosed with PEG significantly increased this number in the wet season. Dosing goats with PEG increased the number and length of browsing bouts compared to goats from the other treatments. Pre-loading goats with PEG also tended to increase bite rates on browse forages, which contributed to increased consumption rates of CTs. Based on the behavioural adjustments made by goats in this study and within the constraints imposed by chemical complexity in savanna systems, we concluded that herbivores under natural conditions foraged in ways that minimised CTs consumption. More research should further elucidate the mechanism through which CTs regulated feeding behaviour.
| S-EPMC5749680 | biostudies-other
Project description:The Caatinga is the largest nucleus of seasonally dry tropical forests in South America, but little is known about the evolutionary history and biogeography of endemic organisms. Evolutionary diversification and distribution of terrestrial vertebrates endemic to the Caatinga have been explained by palaeogeographical Neogene episodes, mostly related to changes in the course of the São Francisco River, the largest river in the region. Our objective is to estimate the timing of divergence of two endemic groups of short-lived seasonal killifishes inhabiting all ecoregions of the Caatinga, testing the occurrence of synchronic events of spatial diversification in light of available data on regional palaeogeography. We performed independent time-calibrated phylogenetic molecular analyses for two clades of sympatric and geographically widespread seasonal killifishes endemic to the Caatinga, the Hypsolebias antenori group and the Cynolebias alpha-clade. Our results consistently indicate that species diversification took place synchronically in both groups, as well as it is contemporary to diversification of other organisms adapted to life in the semi-arid Caatinga, including lizards and small mammals. Both groups originated during the Miocene, but species diversification started between the Late Miocene and Early Pliocene, when global cooling probably favoured the expansion of semi-arid areas. Synchronic diversification patterns found are chronologically related to Tertiary palaeogeographical reorganizations associated to continental drift and to Quaternary climatic changes, corroborating the recent proposal that South American biodiversity has been continuously shaped between the Late Paleogene and Pleistocene.
| S-EPMC5815601 | biostudies-literature
Project description:During production of the original article [1], there was a technical error that resulted in author corrections not being rendered in the PDF version of the article.
| S-EPMC6615211 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The HTML version of this Article incorrectly omits Supplementary Movie 1. Supplementary Movie 1 can be found as Supplementary Information associated with this Correction.
| S-EPMC6365550 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC8283902 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Ecological forecasts are quantitative tools that can guide ecosystem management. The coemergence of extensive environmental monitoring and quantitative frameworks allows for widespread development and continued improvement of ecological forecasting systems. We use a relatively simple estuarine hypoxia model to demonstrate advances in addressing some of the most critical challenges and opportunities of contemporary ecological forecasting, including predictive accuracy, uncertainty characterization, and management relevance. We explore the impacts of different combinations of forecast metrics, drivers, and driver time windows on predictive performance. We also incorporate multiple sets of state-variable observations from different sources and separately quantify model prediction error and measurement uncertainty through a flexible Bayesian hierarchical framework. Results illustrate the benefits of (1) adopting forecast metrics and drivers that strike an optimal balance between predictability and relevance to management, (2) incorporating multiple data sources in the calibration data set to separate and propagate different sources of uncertainty, and (3) using the model in scenario mode to probabilistically evaluate the effects of alternative management decisions on future ecosystem state. In the Chesapeake Bay, the subject of this case study, we find that average summer or total annual hypoxia metrics are more predictable than monthly metrics and that measurement error represents an important source of uncertainty. Application of the model in scenario mode suggests that absent watershed management actions over the past decades, long-term average hypoxia would have increased by 7% compared to 1985. Conversely, the model projects that if management goals currently in place to restore the Bay are met, long-term average hypoxia would eventually decrease by 32% with respect to the mid-1980s.
| S-EPMC8459276 | biostudies-literature