Trip duration drives shift in travel network structure with implications for the predictability of spatial disease spread.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Giles JR
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8378725 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Humans can impact the spatial transmission dynamics of infectious diseases by introducing pathogens into susceptible environments. The rate at which this occurs depends in part on human-mobility patterns. Increasingly, mobile-phone usage data are used to quantify human mobility and investigate the impact on disease dynamics. Although the number of trips between locations and the duration of those trips could both affect infectious-disease dynamics, there has been limited work to quantify and model the duration of travel in the context of disease transmission. Using mobility data inferred from mobile-phone calling records in Namibia, we calculated both the number of trips between districts and the duration of these trips from 2010 to 2014. We fit hierarchical Bayesian models to these data to describe both the mean trip number and duration. Results indicate that trip duration is positively related to trip distance, but negatively related to the destination population density. The highest volume of trips and shortest trip durations were among high-density districts, whereas trips among low-density districts had lower volume with longer duration. We also analyzed the impact of including trip duration in spatial-transmission models for a range of pathogens and introduction locations. We found that inclusion of trip duration generally delays the rate of introduction, regardless of pathogen, and that the variance and uncertainty around spatial spread increases proportionally with pathogen-generation time. These results enhance our understanding of disease-dispersal dynamics driven by human mobility, which has potential to elucidate optimal spatial and temporal scales for epidemic interventions.
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Project description:BackgroundTravellers' risk perception is a key component of travel risk assessment because it influences the adequate implementation of safety precautions. The aims of this study are to validate a tool to analyse travellers' risk perception to identify which factors can influence it and how it changes upon return.MethodsThe Traveller's Risk Perception (TRiP) questionnaire was developed and administered to outpatients before and after travel in three travel clinics. A principal component analysis (PCA) was performed to validate the questionnaire and multivariate regression analysis was used to evaluate the effect of travellers' characteristics on the risk scores.ResultsA total of 1020 travellers completed the questionnaire. PCA identified two latent factors: 'generic-disseminated risks' and 'specific-circumstantial risks'. Cronbach's α was acceptable (0.76 and 0.70, respectively). The 'generic-disseminated risks' dimension scored higher than the 'specific-circumstantial risks' (p<0.001). The items with the highest scores were insect bites, gastrointestinal disorders and malaria. The mean scores were significantly lower after the travel for all items but one.ConclusionsThe TRiP questionnaire is a valid and reliable tool for rating travellers' perceptions. Staff in travel clinics should be trained to systematically assess travellers' risk perception in order to tailor the consultation according to specific information needs.
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Project description:BACKGROUND: Confirmed H1N1 cases during late spring and summer 2009 in various countries showed a substantial age shift between importations and local transmission cases, with adults mainly responsible for seeding unaffected regions and children most frequently driving community outbreaks. METHODS: We introduce a multi-host stochastic metapopulation model with two age classes to analytically investigate the role of a heterogeneously mixing population and its associated non-homogeneous travel behaviors on the risk of a major epidemic. We inform the model with demographic data, contact data and travel statistics of Europe and Mexico, and calibrate it to the 2009 H1N1 pandemic early outbreak. We allow for variations of the model parameters to explore the conditions of invasion under different scenarios. RESULTS: We derive the expression for the potential of global invasion of the epidemic that depends on the transmissibility of the pathogen, the transportation network and mobility features, the demographic profile and the mixing pattern. Higher assortativity in the contact pattern greatly increases the probability of spatial containment of the epidemic, this effect being contrasted by an increase in the social activity of adults vs. children. Heterogeneous features of the mobility network characterizing its topology and traffic flows strongly favor the invasion of the pathogen at the spatial level, as also a larger fraction of children traveling. Variations in the demographic profile and mixing habits across countries lead to heterogeneous outbreak situations. Model results are compatible with the H1N1 spatial transmission dynamics observed. CONCLUSIONS: This work illustrates the importance of considering age-dependent mixing profiles and mobility features coupled together to study the conditions for the spatial invasion of an emerging influenza pandemic. Its results allow the immediate assessment of the risk of a major epidemic for a specific scenario upon availability of data, and the evaluation of the potential effectiveness of public health interventions targeting specific age groups, their interactions and mobility behaviors. The approach provides a general modeling framework that can be used for other types of partitions of the host population and applied to different settings.
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Project description:Long-distance dispersal pathways, which frequently relate to human activities, facilitate the spread of alien species. One pathway of concern in North America is the possible spread of forest pests in firewood carried by visitors to campgrounds or recreational facilities. We present a network model depicting the movement of campers and, by extension, potentially infested firewood. We constructed the model from US National Recreation Reservation Service data documenting more than seven million visitor reservations (including visitors from Canada) at campgrounds nationwide. This bi-directional model can be used to identify likely origin and destination locations for a camper-transported pest. To support broad-scale decision making, we used the model to generate summary maps for 48 US states and seven Canadian provinces that depict the most likely origins of campers traveling from outside the target state or province. The maps generally showed one of two basic spatial patterns of out-of-state (or out-of-province) origin risk. In the eastern United States, the riskiest out-of-state origin locations were usually found in a localized region restricted to portions of adjacent states. In the western United States, the riskiest out-of-state origin locations were typically associated with major urban areas located far from the state of interest. A few states and the Canadian provinces showed characteristics of both patterns. These model outputs can guide deployment of resources for surveillance, firewood inspections, or other activities. Significantly, the contrasting map patterns indicate that no single response strategy is appropriate for all states and provinces. If most out-of-state campers are traveling from distant areas, it may be effective to deploy resources at key points along major roads (e.g., interstate highways), since these locations could effectively represent bottlenecks of camper movement. If most campers are from nearby areas, they may have many feasible travel routes, so a more widely distributed deployment may be necessary.
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Project description:A landscape genetic simulation modelling approach is used to understand factors affecting raccoon rabies disease spread in southern Ontario, Canada. Using the Ontario Rabies Model, we test the hypothesis that landscape configuration (shape of available habitat) affects dispersal, as indicated by genetic structuring. We simulated range expansions of raccoons from New York into vacant landscapes in Ontario, in two areas that differed by the presence or absence of a landscape constriction. Our results provide theoretical evidence that landscape constriction acts as a vicariant bottleneck. We discuss implications for raccoon rabies spread.
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Project description:Smart card data are widely used in generating the origin and destination (O-D) matrix for public transit, which contains important information for transportation planning and operation. However, the generation of the O-D matrix is limited by the smart card data information that includes the boarding (origin) information without the alighting (destination) information. To solve this problem, trip chain methods have been proposed, thereby greatly contributing in estimating the destination using the smart card data. Nevertheless, unlinked trips, that is, trips with unknown destinations, are a persisting issue. The purpose of this study is to develop a method for estimating the destination of unlinked trips, in which trip chain methods cannot be applied, using temporal travel patterns and historical boarding records of the passengers based on long-term smart card data. The passengers were clustered by k-means clustering, and the time-of-day travel patterns were estimated for each cluster using a Gaussian mixture model. The travel patterns were formulated to estimate the destination of the passengers from the smart card data. The proposed method was verified using the 2018 smart card data collected in Sejong City, South Korea. The existing trip chain method matched the destinations of 60.0% of the total trips, whereas the proposed method improved the matching to 74.9% by additionally matching the destinations of 37.2% of the unlinked trips.
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Project description:In complex networks, centrality metrics quantify the connectivity of nodes and identify the most important ones in the transmission of signals. In many real world networks, especially in transportation systems, links are dynamic, i.e. their presence depends on time, and travelling between two nodes requires a non-vanishing time. Additionally, many networks are structured on several layers, representing, e.g., different transportation modes or service providers. Temporal generalisations of centrality metrics based on walk-counting, like Katz centrality, exist, however they do not account for non-zero link travel times and for the multiplex structure. We propose a generalisation of Katz centrality, termed Trip Centrality, counting only the walks that can be travelled according to the network temporal structure, i.e. "trips", while also differentiating the contributions of inter- and intra-layer walks to centrality. We show an application to the US air transport system, specifically computing airports' centrality losses due to delays in the flight network.
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Project description:In the present study, we examined the effects of different drying conditions on the composition, structure and function of benthic invertebrate assemblages. We approached this objective by comparing invertebrate assemblages in perennial and intermittent sites along two intermittent Mediterranean streams with contrasting predictability, duration, and spatial patterns of drying: Fuirosos (high predictability, short duration, downstream drying pattern) and Rogativa (low predictability, long duration, patchy drying pattern). Specifically, we quantified the contribution of individual taxa to those differences, the degree of nestedness, and shifts in the composition, structure and function of benthic invertebrate assemblages along flow intermittence gradients. We observed greater effects of drying on the benthic invertebrate composition in Fuirosos than in Rogativa, resulting in a higher dissimilarity of assemblages between perennial and intermittent sites, as well as a lower degree of nestedness. Furthermore, a higher number of biotic metrics related to richness, abundance and biological traits were significantly different between perennial and intermittent sites in Fuirosos, despite a shorter dry period compared to Rogativa. At the same time, slightly different responses were detected during post-drying (autumn) than pre-drying (spring) conditions in this stream. In Rogativa, shifts in benthic invertebrate assemblages along increasing gradients of flow intermittence were found for three metrics (Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera and Trichoptera (EPT) and Odonata, Coleoptera and Heteroptera (OCH) abundances and aerial active dispersal. Furthermore, we demonstrated that combined gradients of dry period duration and distance to nearest perennial reach can generate complex, and different, responses of benthic invertebrate assemblages, depending on the flow intermittence metric. Our study advances the notion that special attention should be paid to the predictability, duration and spatial patterns of drying in intermittent streams in order to disentangle the effects of drying on benthic invertebrate assemblages, in particular in areas subject to high spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability in drying conditions.
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