Dataset Information

Prediction of vaccine hesitancy based on social media traffic among Israeli parents using machine learning strategies.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

Vaccines have contributed to substantial reductions of morbidity and mortality from vaccine-preventable diseases, mainly in children. However, vaccine hesitancy was listed by the World Health Organization (WHO) in 2019 as one of the top ten threats to world health.

Aim

To employ machine-learning strategies to assess how on-line content regarding vaccination affects vaccine hesitancy.

Methods

We collected social media posts and responses from vaccination discussion groups and forums on leading social platforms, including Facebook and Tapuz (A user content website that contains blogs and forums). We investigated 65,603 records of children aged 0-6 years who are insured in Maccabi's Health Maintenance Organization (HMO). We applied three machine learning algorithms (Logistic regression, Random forest and Neural networks) to predict vaccination among Israeli children, based on demographic and social media traffic.

Results

Higher hesitancy was associated with more social media traffic, for most of the vaccinations. The addition of the social media traffic features improved the performances of most of the models. However, for Rota virus, Hepatitis A and hepatitis B, the performances of all algorithms (with and without the social media features) were close to random (accuracy up to 0.63 and F1 up to 0.65). We found a negative association between on-line discussions and vaccination.

Conclusions

There is an association between social media traffic and vaccine hesitancy. Policy makers are encouraged to perceive social media as a main channel of communication during health crises. Health officials and experts are encouraged to take part in social media discussions, and be equipped to readily provide the information, support and advice that the public is looking for, in order to optimize vaccination actions and to improve public health.

SUBMITTER: Bar-Lev S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8381350 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:IntroductionSuccessful strategies are needed to address parental vaccine hesitancy, a significant public health issue. The study objective was to assess whether an Internet-based platform with vaccine information and interactive social media components improved parents' vaccine-related attitudes.Study designA three-arm RCT.Setting/participantsThe study was conducted in a large Colorado integrated healthcare organization. Parents were enrolled during September 2013 through October 2015 and followed through November 2016; data were analyzed in 2017. Parents, recruited during pregnancy, were given a survey about vaccine-related attitudes at enrollment (i.e., baseline) and when their child was aged 3-5 months and 12-15 months (Timepoints 1 and 2, respectively). Parental vaccine hesitancy was assessed at baseline.InterventionStudy participants were randomized to the following: a study website with vaccine information and social media components (VSM arm); a website with vaccine information only (VI); or usual care.Main outcome measuresChange in parental vaccine attitudes over time by baseline degree of vaccine hesitancy.ResultsAmong 1,093 study participants, 945 (86.5%) completed all three surveys. Comparing baseline with Timepoint 1 among vaccine-hesitant parents, the VSM and VI arms were associated with significant improvements in attitudes regarding vaccination benefits compared to usual care (VSM mean change 0.23 on a 5-point scale, 95% CI=0.05, 0.40, VI mean change 0.22, 95% CI=0.04, 0.40). Comparing baseline with Timepoint 2 among hesitant parents, the VSM and VI arms were also associated with significant reductions in parental concerns about vaccination risks compared to usual care (VSM mean change -0.37, 95% CI= -0.60, -0.14, VI mean change -0.31, 95% CI= -0.55, -0.07). Self-efficacy around vaccine decision making also improved among vaccine-hesitant parents. No intervention effect was observed among parents not vaccine-hesitant at baseline.ConclusionsAmong vaccine-hesitant parents, an Internet-based intervention improved parents' attitudes about vaccines.Trial registrationThis study was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov NCT01873040.