COVID-19 Belgium: Extended SEIR-QD model with nursing homes and long-term scenarios-based forecasts.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Franco N
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8390100 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:PurposeTo estimate the proportion of residents newly initiating long-acting opioids in comparison to residents initiating short-acting opioids and examine variation in long-acting opioid initiation by region and resident characteristics.MethodsThis cross-sectional study included 182 735 long-stay nursing home residents in 13 881 US nursing homes who were Medicare beneficiaries during 2011 to 2013 and initiated a short-acting or long-acting opioid (excluding residents <50 years old, those with cancer, or receiving hospice care). Medicare Part D prescription claims were used to identify residents as newly initiating short-acting or long-acting opioids, defined as having a prescription claim for an opioid with no prior opioid prescriptions in the preceding 60 days. We estimated the overall proportion of initiators prescribed long-acting opioids. Regional variation was examined by mapping results by state and hospital referral regions. Logistic models were used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (aORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).ResultsTwo percent of opioid initiators were prescribed long-acting opioids. State variation in long-acting opioid initiation ranged from 0.6% to 7.5% (5th-95th percentiles: 0.6-6.4%). Resident characteristics associated with increased long-acting opioid initiation included severe physical limitations (vs none/mild limitations; aOR: 2.13, 95% CI: 1.92-2.37) and pain (staff-assessed vs no pain; aOR: 1.59 95% CI: 1.40-1.80), whereas being non-White was inversely associated (non-Hispanic black vs non-Hispanic white; aOR: 0.70, 95% CI: 0.62-0.79).ConclusionUnited States nursing home residents predominantly initiate short-acting opioids in accordance with Center for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines. Documented variation by geographic and resident characteristics suggests that improvements are possible.
| S-EPMC6279625 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Chile is experiencing a period of rapid aging, which increases the need of long-term care services in the country. Nursing homes have been the traditional alternative to deal with the increase of elderly population in the country, with services supplied by a mix of for-profit and nonprofit providers. Additionally, population exhibits a high degree of geographical concentration. The study aims to identify the determinants of the geographical location of nursing homes in Chile at municipality level. The analysis takes into account the different location criteria for different types of nursing homes as well as potential spatial effects. The paper uses spatial analysis tools to identify clusters of nursing homes and population characteristics and to estimate the determinants of nursing homes availability and coverage in the country. The analysis-based on spatial global and local tests, and spatial autoregressive models- show the existence of clusters of nursing homes as well as clusters of municipalities according to elderly population, income, poverty, population density, and public health insurance coverage. Residuals from ordinary least squares regressions were spatially autocorrelated, showing the need of using spatial models. Estimations show that availability and coverage of nursing homes are positively related with municipality income, and that for-profit and nonprofit facilities respond differently to different factors. A negative coefficient was found for poverty in nonprofit nursing homes, raising doubts about the effectiveness of giving public subsidies to incentive the installation of facilities in areas with high needs and low income.
| S-EPMC6019744 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesThe COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the extreme vulnerability of older people and other individuals who reside in long-term care, creating an urgent need for evidence-based policy that can adequately protect these community members. This study aimed to provide synthesized evidence to support policy decision making.DesignRapid narrative review investigating strategies that have prevented or mitigated SARS-CoV-2 transmission in long-term care.Setting and participantsResidents and staff in care settings such as nursing homes and long-term care facilities.MethodsPubMed/Medline, Cochrane Library, and Scopus were systematically searched, with studies describing potentially effective strategies included. Studies were excluded if they did not report empirical evidence (eg, commentaries and consensus guidelines). Study quality was appraised on the basis of study design; data were extracted from published reports and synthesized narratively using tabulated data extracts and summary tables.ResultsSearches yielded 713 articles; 80 papers describing 77 studies were included. Most studies were observational, with no randomized controlled trials identified. Intervention studies provided strong support for widespread surveillance, early identification and response, and rigorous infection prevention and control measures. Symptom- or temperature-based screening and single point-prevalence testing were found to be ineffective, and serial universal testing of residents and staff was considered crucial. Attention to ventilation and environmental management, digital health applications, and acute sector support were also considered beneficial although evidence for effectiveness was lacking. In observational studies, staff represented substantial transmission risk and workforce management strategies were important components of pandemic response. Higher-performing facilities with less crowding and higher nurse staffing ratios had reduced transmission rates. Outbreak investigations suggested that facility-level leadership, intersectoral collaboration, and policy that facilitated access to critical resources were all significant enablers of success.Conclusions and implicationsHigh-quality evidence of effectiveness in protecting LTCFs from COVID-19 was limited at the time of this study, though it continues to emerge. Despite widespread COVID-19 vaccination programs in many countries, continuing prevention and mitigation measures may be required to protect vulnerable long-term care residents from COVID-19 and other infectious diseases. This rapid review summarizes current evidence regarding strategies that may be effective.
| S-EPMC8328566 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The natural history of COVID-19 and predictors of mortality in older adults need to be investigated to inform clinical operations and healthcare policy planning. A retrospective study took place in 80 long-term nursing homes in Catalonia, Spain collecting data from March 1st to May 31st, 2020. Demographic and clinical data from 2,092 RT-PCR confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection were registered, including structural characteristics of the facilities. Descriptive statistics to describe the demographic, clinical, and molecular characteristics of our sample were prepared, both overall and by their symptomatology was performed and an analysis of statistically significant bivariate differences and constructions of a logistic regression model were carried out to assess the relationship between variables. The incidence of the infection was 28%. 71% of the residents showed symptoms. Five major symptoms included: fever, dyspnea, dry cough, asthenia and diarrhea. Fever and dyspnea were by far the most frequent (50% and 28%, respectively). The presentation was predominantly acute and symptomatology persisted from days to weeks (mean 9.1 days, SD = 10,9). 16% of residents had confirmed pneumonia and 22% required hospitalization. The accumulated mortality rate was 21.75% (86% concentrated during the first 28 days at onset). A multivariate logistic regression analysis showed a positive predictive value for mortality for some variables such as age, pneumonia, fever, dyspnea, stupor refusal to oral intake and dementia (p<0.01 for all variables). Results suggest that density in the nursing homes did not account for differences in the incidence of the infection within the facilities. This study provides insights into the natural history of the disease in older adults with high dependency living in long-term nursing homes during the first pandemic wave of March-May 2020 in the region of Catalonia, and suggests that some comorbidities and symptoms have a strong predictive value for mortality.
| S-EPMC8301631 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesTo assess the effect of changes in assisted living (AL) capacity within a market on prevalence of residents with low care needs in nursing homes.DesignRetrospective, longitudinal analysis of nursing home markets.Setting and participantsTwelve thousand two hundred fifity-one nursing homes in operation during 2007 and 2014.MeasurementsWe analyzed the percentage of residents in a nursing home who qualified as low-care. For each nursing home, we constructed a market consisting of AL communities, Medicare beneficiaries, and competing nursing homes within a 15-mile radius. We estimated the effect of change in AL beds on prevalence of low-care residents using multivariate linear models with year and nursing home fixed effects.ResultsThe supply of AL beds increased by an average 258 beds per nursing home market (standard deviation = 591) during the study period. The prevalence of low-care residents decreased from an average of 13.0% (median 10.5%) to 12.2% (median 9.5%). In adjusted models, a 100-bed increase in AL supply was associated with a decrease in low-care residents of 0.041 percentage points (P = .026), controlling for changes in market and nursing home characteristics, county demographics, and year and nursing home fixed effects. In markets with a high percentage of its Medicare beneficiaries (≥14%) dual eligible for Medicaid, the effect of AL is stronger, with a 0.066-percentage point decrease per 100 AL beds (P = .026) vs a 0.016-percentage point decrease in low-duals markets (P = .48).Conclusions and implicationsOur analysis suggests that some of the growth in AL capacity serves as a substitute for nursing homes for patients with low care needs. Furthermore, the effects are concentrated in markets with an above-average proportion of beneficiaries with dual Medicaid eligibility.
| S-EPMC7396306 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Frailty is a phenomenon that precedes adverse health events in older people. However, there is currently no consensus for how to best measure frailty. Several studies report that women have a higher prevalence of frailty than men, but there is a gap in studies of the high rates of frailty in older people living in long-term nursing homes (LTNHs) stratified by sex. Therefore, we analyzed health parameters related to frailty and measured their capacity to identify frailty stratified by sex in older people living in LTNHs. According to the Fried Frailty Phenotype (FFP), anxiety increased the risk of frailty in women, while for men functionality protected against the risk of frailty. Regarding the Tilburg Frailty Indicator (TFI), functionality had a protective effect in men, while for women worse dynamic balance indicated a higher risk of frailty. The analyzed parameters had a similar capacity for detecting frailty measured by the TFI in both sexes, while the parameters differed in frailty measured by the FFP. Our study suggests that assessment of frailty in older adults should incorporate a broad definition of frailty that includes not only physical parameters but also psycho-affective aspects as measured by instruments such as the TFI.
| S-EPMC9819974 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Context:Increasing human populations in urban areas pose a threat to species' persistence through habitat loss and fragmentation. It is therefore essential that we develop methods to investigate critical habitat loss thresholds and least detrimental landscape configurations. Objectives:We develop a framework to assess how the pattern of habitat loss impacts the ecological and social characteristics of a landscape and how this varies depending on the species and criteria by which it is judged. Methods:We use a scenario-based approach to test six propositions in which habitat is lost preferentially based on patch characteristics. We use eight bird and two amphibian species as indicator species. To compare scenarios, we present a method combining the output from a metapopulation model with measures of social impacts of land-cover change in a multiple criteria decision analysis. We also determine whether a habitat loss threshold exists, below which small loss of habitat can lead to large loss of species' occupancy. Results:We found that, of the scenarios presented, preferentially losing common habitats and smaller patches was least detrimental for both ecological and social factors. Threshold effects were found for all but the generalist bird species. Conclusions:We have outlined a workflow which allows for transparent, repeatable comparison between landscapes. This workflow can be used to compare urban landscape plans, or to develop general understanding of the impacts of different forms of habitat loss. Reassuringly, the recommendations based on the scenarios presented are in keeping with received conservation wisdom: to prioritise larger and/or rarer patches.
| S-EPMC7010366 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The size of the human population is projected to peak in the 21st century. But quantitative projections past 2100 are rare, and none quantify the possibility of a rebound from low fertility to replacement-level fertility. Moreover, the most recent long-term deterministic projections were published a decade ago; since then there has been further global fertility decline. Here we provide updated long-term cohort-component population projections and extend the set of scenarios in the literature to include scenarios in which future fertility (a) stays below replacement or (b) recovers and increases. We also characterize old-age dependency ratios. We show that any stable, long-run size of the world population would persistently depend on when an increase towards replacement fertility begins. Without such an increase, the 400-year span when more than 2 billion people were alive would be a brief spike in history. Indeed, four-fifths of all births-past, present, and future-would have already happened.
| S-EPMC10994275 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) can spread rapidly in nursing homes and long-term care (LTC) facilities. Symptoms-based screening and manual contact tracing have limitations that render them ineffective for containing the viral spread in LTC facilities. Symptoms-based screening alone cannot identify asymptomatic people who are infected, and the viral spread is too fast in confined living quarters to be contained by slow manual contact tracing processes.ObjectiveWe describe the development of a digital contact tracing system that LTC facilities can use to rapidly identify and contain asymptomatic and symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infected contacts. A compartmental model was also developed to simulate disease transmission dynamics and to assess system performance versus conventional methods.MethodsWe developed a compartmental model parameterized specifically to assess the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) transmission in LTC facilities. The model was used to quantify the impact of asymptomatic transmission and to assess the performance of several intervention groups to control outbreaks: no intervention, symptom mapping, polymerase chain reaction testing, and manual and digital contact tracing.ResultsOur digital contact tracing system allows users to rapidly identify and then isolate close contacts, store and track infection data in a respiratory line listing tool, and identify contaminated rooms. Our simulation results indicate that the speed and efficiency of digital contact tracing contributed to superior control performance, yielding up to 52% fewer cases than conventional methods.ConclusionsDigital contact tracing systems show promise as an effective tool to control COVID-19 outbreaks in LTC facilities. As facilities prepare to relax restrictions and reopen to outside visitors, such tools will allow them to do so in a surgical, cost-effective manner that controls outbreaks while safely giving residents back the life they once had before this pandemic hit.
| S-EPMC7451111 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionDepression is often difficult to detect in long-term care (LTC) patients with major neurocognitive disorders (MNCD), and an observer-rated screening scale could facilitate assessments. This study aimed to establish the external validity and reliability of the Nursing Homes Short Depression Inventory (NH-SDI) in LTC patients with MNCD and to compare its estimates to the Cornell Scale for Depression in Dementia (CSDD), the most used scale for depression in MNCD.MethodsA focus discussion group of experts assessed the content validity of the NH-SDI. Then, a convenience sample of 93 LTC patients with MNCD was observer-rated by trained nurses with the NH-SDI and CSDD. For 57 patients, a medical assessment of depression was obtained, and screening accuracy estimates were generated.ResultsThe prevalence of depression was 8.8% as per reference standard. NH-SDI's content validity was judged acceptable with minor item wording modifications and specifications. The NH-SDI (cut-off ≥3) achieved 100% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 46-100%) sensitivity, 83% (95% CI: 69-91%) specificity, and 36% (95% CI: 14-64%) positive predictive value (PPV). The CSDD (cut-off ≥3) achieved 100% (95% CI: 46-100%) sensitivity, 75% (95% CI: 61-86%) specificity, and 28% (95% CI: 11-54%) PPV. No significant differences in areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve were found between scales. The NH-SDI and CSDD were highly correlated (rs = 0.913; p < 0.001) and reliable (ICC = 0.77; p < 0.001).ConclusionThe NH-SDI appears valid and reliable in LTC patients with MNCD and quicker than the CSDD to rule out depression in a busy or short-staffed setting.
| S-EPMC10614225 | biostudies-literature