Explainable machine-learning predictions for complications after pediatric congenital heart surgery.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Zeng X
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8390484 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Although anaesthesiologists strive to avoid hypoxemia during surgery, reliably predicting future intraoperative hypoxemia is not currently possible. Here, we report the development and testing of a machine-learning-based system that, in real time during general anaesthesia, predicts the risk of hypoxemia and provides explanations of the risk factors. The system, which was trained on minute-by-minute data from the electronic medical records of over fifty thousand surgeries, improved the performance of anaesthesiologists when providing interpretable hypoxemia risks and contributing factors. The explanations for the predictions are broadly consistent with the literature and with prior knowledge from anaesthesiologists. Our results suggest that if anaesthesiologists currently anticipate 15% of hypoxemia events, with this system's assistance they would anticipate 30% of them, a large portion of which may benefit from early intervention because they are associated with modifiable factors. The system can help improve the clinical understanding of hypoxemia risk during anaesthesia care by providing general insights into the exact changes in risk induced by certain patient or procedure characteristics.
| S-EPMC6467492 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceCytoreductive surgery (CRS) is one of the most complex operations in surgical oncology with significant morbidity, and improved risk prediction tools are critically needed. Machine learning models can potentially overcome the limitations of traditional multiple logistic regression (MLR) models and provide accurate risk estimates.ObjectiveTo develop and validate an explainable machine learning model for predicting major postoperative complications in patients undergoing CRS.Design, setting, and participantsThis prognostic study used patient data from tertiary care hospitals with expertise in CRS included in the US Hyperthermic Intraperitoneal Chemotherapy Collaborative Database between 1998 and 2018. Information from 147 variables was extracted to predict the risk of a major complication. An ensemble-based machine learning (gradient-boosting) model was optimized on 80% of the sample with subsequent validation on a 20% holdout data set. The machine learning model was compared with traditional MLR models. The artificial intelligence SHAP (Shapley additive explanations) method was used for interpretation of patient- and cohort-level risk estimates and interactions to define novel surgical risk phenotypes. Data were analyzed between November 2019 and August 2021.ExposuresCytoreductive surgery.Main outcomes and measuresArea under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC); area under the precision recall curve (AUPRC).ResultsData from a total 2372 patients were included in model development (mean age, 55 years [range, 11-95 years]; 1366 [57.6%] women). The optimized machine learning model achieved high discrimination (AUROC: mean cross-validation, 0.75 [range, 0.73-0.81]; test, 0.74) and precision (AUPRC: mean cross-validation, 0.50 [range, 0.46-0.58]; test, 0.42). Compared with the optimized machine learning model, the published MLR model performed worse (test AUROC and AUPRC: 0.54 and 0.18, respectively). Higher volume of estimated blood loss, having pelvic peritonectomy, and longer operative time were the top 3 contributors to the high likelihood of major complications. SHAP dependence plots demonstrated insightful nonlinear interactive associations between predictors and major complications. For instance, high estimated blood loss (ie, above 500 mL) was only detrimental when operative time exceeded 9 hours. Unsupervised clustering of patients based on similarity of sources of risk allowed identification of 6 distinct surgical risk phenotypes.Conclusions and relevanceIn this prognostic study using data from patients undergoing CRS, an optimized machine learning model demonstrated a superior ability to predict individual- and cohort-level risk of major complications vs traditional methods. Using the SHAP method, 6 distinct surgical phenotypes were identified based on sources of risk of major complications.
| S-EPMC9133947 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Compounds with defined multi-target activity play an increasingly important role in drug discovery. Structural features that might be signatures of such compounds have mostly remained elusive thus far. We have explored the potential of explainable machine learning to uncover structural motifs that are characteristic of dual-target compounds. For a pharmacologically relevant target pair-based test system designed for our study, accurate prediction models were derived and the influence of molecular representation features of test compounds was quantified to explain the predictions. The analysis revealed small numbers of specific features whose presence in dual-target and absence in single-target compounds determined accurate predictions. These features formed coherent substructures in dual-target compounds. From computational analysis of specific feature contributions, structural motifs emerged that were confirmed to be signatures of different dual-target activities. Our findings demonstrate the ability of explainable machine learning to bridge between predictions and intuitive chemical analysis and reveal characteristic substructures of dual-target compounds.
| S-EPMC8566526 | biostudies-literature
Project description:To explore serum proteins associated with postoperative pulmonary infection in children with CHD, a total of 98 serum samples collected from the 23 patients before and after surgery were subjected to proteomic analysis
2024-05-21 | PXD051904 | Pride
Project description:Pediatric Index of Mortality 3 is a validated tool including 11 variables for the assessment of mortality risk in PICU patients. With the recent advances in explainable machine learning algorithms, we aimed to assess feasibility of application of these machine learning models to simplify the Pediatric Index of Mortality 3 scoring system in order to decrease time and labor required for data collection and entry for Pediatric Index of Mortality 3.DesignSingle-center, retrospective cohort study. Data from the Virtual Pediatric Systems for patients admitted to Cleveland Clinic Children`s PICU between January 2008 and December 2019 was obtained. Light Gradient Boosting Machine Regressor (a gradient boosting decision tree algorithm) was used for building the machine learning models. Variable importance was analyzed by SHapley Additive exPlanations. All of the 11 Pediatric Index of Mortality 3 variables were used as input variables in the machine learning models to predict Pediatric Index of Mortality 3 risk of mortality as the outcome variable. Mean absolute error, root mean squared error, and R-squared were calculated for each of the 11 machine learning models as model performance parameters.SettingQuaternary children's hospital.PatientsPICU patients.InterventionsNone.Measurements and main resultsFive-thousand sixty-eight patients were analyzed. The machine learning models were able to maintain similar predictive error until the number of input variables decreased to four. The machine learning model with five input variables (mechanical ventilation in the first hour of PICU admission, very-high-risk diagnosis, surgical recovery from a noncardiac procedure, low-risk diagnosis, and base excess) produced lowest mean root mean squared error of 1.49 (95% CI, 1.05-1.93) and highest R-squared of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.6-0.86) with mean absolute error of 0.43 (95% CI, 0.35-0.5) among all the 11 machine learning models.ConclusionsExplainable machine learning methods were feasible in simplifying the Pediatric Index of Mortality 3 scoring system with similar risk of mortality predictions compared to the original Pediatric Index of Mortality 3 model tested in a single-center dataset.
| S-EPMC8528230 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background and objectivesAccurate predictions of haemoglobin (Hb) deferral for whole-blood donors could aid blood banks in reducing deferral rates and increasing efficiency and donor motivation. Complex models are needed to make accurate predictions, but predictions must also be explainable. Before the implementation of a prediction model, its impact on the blood supply should be estimated to avoid shortages.Materials and methodsDonation visits between October 2017 and December 2021 were selected from Sanquin's database system. The following variables were available for each visit: donor sex, age, donation start time, month, number of donations in the last 24 months, most recent ferritin level, days since last ferritin measurement, Hb at nth previous visit (n between 1 and 5), days since the nth previous visit. Outcome Hb deferral has two classes: deferred and not deferred. Support vector machines were used as prediction models, and SHapley Additive exPlanations values were used to quantify the contribution of each variable to the model predictions. Performance was assessed using precision and recall. The potential impact on blood supply was estimated by predicting deferral at earlier or later donation dates.ResultsWe present a model that predicts Hb deferral in an explainable way. If used in practice, 64% of non-deferred donors would be invited on or before their original donation date, while 80% of deferred donors would be invited later.ConclusionBy using this model to invite donors, the number of blood bank visits would increase by 15%, while deferral rates would decrease by 60% (currently 3% for women and 1% for men).
| S-EPMC9826045 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundWe aimed to develop and validate an automated machine learning (autoML) prediction model for cardiac surgery-associated acute kidney injury (CSA-AKI).MethodsUsing 69 preoperative variables, we developed several models to predict post-operative AKI in adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery. Models included autoML and non-autoML types, including decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and artificial neural network (ANN), as well as a logistic regression prediction model. We then compared model performance using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and assessed model calibration using Brier score on the independent testing dataset.ResultsThe incidence of CSA-AKI was 36%. Stacked ensemble autoML had the highest predictive performance among autoML models, and was chosen for comparison with other non-autoML and multivariable logistic regression models. The autoML had the highest AUROC (0.79), followed by RF (0.78), XGBoost (0.77), multivariable logistic regression (0.77), ANN (0.75), and DT (0.64). The autoML had comparable AUROC with RF and outperformed the other models. The autoML was well-calibrated. The Brier score for autoML, RF, DT, XGBoost, ANN, and multivariable logistic regression was 0.18, 0.18, 0.21, 0.19, 0.19, and 0.18, respectively. We applied SHAP and LIME algorithms to our autoML prediction model to extract an explanation of the variables that drive patient-specific predictions of CSA-AKI.ConclusionWe were able to present a preoperative autoML prediction model for CSA-AKI that provided high predictive performance that was comparable to RF and superior to other ML and multivariable logistic regression models. The novel approaches of the proposed explainable preoperative autoML prediction model for CSA-AKI may guide clinicians in advancing individualized medicine plans for patients under cardiac surgery.
| S-EPMC9656700 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The theory and computational tools developed to interpret and explore energy landscapes in molecular science are applied to the landscapes defined by local minima for neural networks. These machine learning landscapes correspond to fits of training data, where the inputs are vital signs and laboratory measurements for a database of patients, and the objective is to predict a clinical outcome. In this contribution, we test the predictions obtained by fitting to single measurements, and then to combinations of between 2 and 10 different patient medical data items. The effect of including measurements over different time intervals from the 48 h period in question is analysed, and the most recent values are found to be the most important. We also compare results obtained for neural networks as a function of the number of hidden nodes, and for different values of a regularization parameter. The predictions are compared with an alternative convex fitting function, and a strong correlation is observed. The dependence of these results on the patients randomly selected for training and testing decreases systematically with the size of the database available. The machine learning landscapes defined by neural network fits in this investigation have single-funnel character, which probably explains why it is relatively straightforward to obtain the global minimum solution, or a fit that behaves similarly to this optimal parameterization.
| S-EPMC5541539 | biostudies-other
Project description:Identifying patient prognostic phenotypes facilitates precision medicine. This study aimed to explore phenotypes of patients with heart failure (HF) corresponding to prognostic condition (risk of mortality) and identify the phenotype of new patients by machine learning (ML). A unsupervised ML was applied to explore phenotypes of patients in a derivation dataset (n = 562) based on their medical records. Thereafter, supervised ML models were trained on the derivation dataset to classify these identified phenotypes. Then, the trained classifiers were further validated on an independent validation dataset (n = 168). Finally, Shapley additive explanations were used to interpret decision making of phenotype classification. Three patient phenotypes corresponding to stratified mortality risk (high, low, and intermediate) were identified. Kaplan-Meier survival curves among the three phenotypes had significant difference (pairwise comparison p < 0.05). Hazard ratio of all-cause mortality between patients in phenotype 1 (n = 91; high risk) and phenotype 3 (n = 329; intermediate risk) was 2.08 (95%CI 1.29-3.37, p = 0.003), and 0.26 (95%CI 0.11-0.61, p = 0.002) between phenotype 2 (n = 142; low risk) and phenotype 3. For phenotypes classification by random forest, AUCs of phenotypes 1, 2, and 3 were 0.736 ± 0.038, 0.815 ± 0.035, and 0.721 ± 0.03, respectively, slightly better than the decision tree. Then, the classifier effectively identified the phenotypes for new patients in the validation dataset with significant difference on survival curves and hazard ratios. Finally, age and creatinine clearance rate were identified as the top two most important predictors. ML could effectively identify patient prognostic phenotypes, facilitating reasonable management and treatment considering prognostic condition.
| S-EPMC9224610 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Objective: Investigate whether machine learning can predict pulmonary complications (PPCs) after emergency gastrointestinal surgery in patients with acute diffuse peritonitis. Methods: This is a secondary data analysis study. We use five machine learning algorithms (Logistic regression, DecisionTree, GradientBoosting, Xgbc, and gbm) to predict postoperative pulmonary complications. Results: Nine hundred and twenty-six cases were included in this study; 187 cases (20.19%) had PPCs. The five most important variables for the postoperative weight were preoperative albumin, cholesterol on the 3rd day after surgery, albumin on the day of surgery, platelet count on the 1st day after surgery and cholesterol count on the 1st day after surgery for pulmonary complications. In the test group: the logistic regression model shows AUC = 0.808, accuracy = 0.824 and precision = 0.621; Decision tree shows AUC = 0.702, accuracy = 0.795 and precision = 0.486; The GradientBoosting model shows AUC = 0.788, accuracy = 0.827 and precision = 1.000; The Xgbc model shows AUC = 0.784, accuracy = 0.806 and precision = 0.583. The Gbm model shows AUC = 0.814, accuracy = 0.806 and precision = 0.750. Conclusion: Machine learning algorithms can predict patients' PPCs with acute diffuse peritonitis. Moreover, the results of the importance matrix for the Gbdt algorithm model show that albumin, cholesterol, age, and platelets are the main variables that account for the highest pulmonary complication weights.
| S-EPMC8365303 | biostudies-literature