Multi-agent system collision model to predict the transmission of seasonal influenza in Tokyo from 2014-2015 to 2018-2019 seasons.

ABSTRACT: The objective of this study was to apply the multi-agent system (MAS) collision model to predict seasonal influenza epidemic in Tokyo for 5 seasons (2014-2015 to 2018-2019 seasons). The MAS collision model assumes each individual as a particle inside a square domain. The particles move within the domain and disease transmission occurs in a certain probability when an infected particle collides a susceptible particle. The probability was determined based on the basic reproduction number calculated using the actual data. The simulation started with 1 infected particle and 999 susceptible particles to correspond to the onset of an influenza epidemic. We performed the simulation for 150 days and the calculation was repeated 500 times for each season. To improve the accuracy of the prediction,

SUBMITTER: Tomizawa N 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8391024 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature