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Long-Term Residential Exposure to Particulate Matter and Its Components, Nitrogen Dioxide and Ozone-A Northern Sweden Cohort Study on Mortality.

ABSTRACT: This study aims to estimate the mortality risk associated with air pollution in a Swedish cohort with relatively low exposure. Air pollution models were used to estimate annual mean concentrations of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 µm (PM_2.5), primary emitted carbonaceous particles (BC/pOC), sea salt, chemically formed particles grouped as secondary inorganic and organic aerosols (SIA and SOA) as well as ozone (O₃) and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂). The exposure, as a moving average was calculated based on home address for the time windows 1 year (lag 1), 1-5 years (lag 1-5) and 1-10 years (lag 1-10) preceding the death. During the study period, 1151 cases of natural mortality, 253 cases of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and 113 cases of respiratory and lung cancer mortality were observed during 369,394 person-years of follow-up. Increased natural mortality was observed in association with NO₂ (3% [95% CI -8-14%] per IQR) and PM_2.5 (2% [95% CI -5-9%] for an IQR increase) and its components, except for SOA where a decreased risk was observed. Higher risk increases were observed for CVD mortality (e.g., 18% [95% CI 1-39%] per IQR for NO₂). These findings at low exposure levels are relevant for future decisions concerning air quality policies.

SUBMITTER: Sommar JN

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8393394 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:ImportanceThe association between short-term exposure to air pollution and mortality has been widely documented worldwide; however, few studies have applied causal modeling approaches to account for unmeasured confounders that vary across time and space.ObjectiveTo estimate the association between short-term changes in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations and changes in daily all-cause mortality rates using a causal modeling approach.Design, setting, and participantsThis cross-sectional study used air pollution and mortality data from Jiangsu, China; California; central-southern Italy; and Germany with interactive fixed-effects models to control for both measured and unmeasured spatiotemporal confounders. A total of 8 963 352 deaths in these 4 regions from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2019, were included in the study. Data were analyzed from June 1, 2021, to October 30, 2023.ExposureDay-to-day changes in county- or municipality-level mean PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations.Main outcomes and measuresDay-to-day changes in county- or municipality-level all-cause mortality rates.ResultsAmong the 8 963 352 deaths in the 4 study regions, a 10-μg/m3 increase in daily PM2.5 concentration was associated with an increase in daily all-cause deaths per 100 000 people of 0.01 (95% CI, 0.001-0.01) in Jiangsu, 0.03 (95% CI, 0.004-0.05) in California, 0.10 (95% CI, 0.07-0.14) in central-southern Italy, and 0.04 (95% CI, 0.02- 0.05) in Germany. The corresponding increases in mortality rates for a 10-μg/m3 increase in NO2 concentration were 0.04 (95% CI, 0.03-0.05) in Jiangsu, 0.03 (95% CI, 0.01-0.04) in California, 0.10 (95% CI, 0.05-0.15) in central-southern Italy, and 0.05 (95% CI, 0.04-0.06) in Germany. Significant effect modifications by age were observed in all regions, by sex in Germany (eg, 0.05 [95% CI, 0.03-0.06] for females in the single-pollutant model of PM2.5), and by urbanicity in Jiangsu (0.07 [95% CI, 0.04-0.10] for rural counties in the 2-pollutant model of NO2).Conclusions and relevanceThe findings of this cross-sectional study contribute to the growing body of evidence that increases in short-term exposures to PM2.5 and NO2 may be associated with increases in all-cause mortality rates. The interactive fixed-effects model, which controls for unmeasured spatial and temporal confounders, including unmeasured time-varying confounders in different spatial units, can be used to estimate associations between changes in short-term exposure to air pollution and changes in health outcomes.

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Long-Term Residential Exposure to Particulate Matter and Its Components, Nitrogen Dioxide and Ozone-A Northern Sweden Cohort Study on Mortality.

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