Machine Learning Approaches to Identify Patient Comorbidities and Symptoms That Increased Risk of Mortality in COVID-19.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Aktar S
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8393412 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:BackgroundDementia care is challenging due to the divergent trajectories in disease progression and outcomes. Predictive models are needed to flag patients at risk of near-term mortality and identify factors contributing to mortality risk across different dementia types.MethodsHere, we developed machine-learning models predicting dementia patient mortality at four different survival thresholds using a dataset of 45,275 unique participants and 163,782 visit records from the U.S. National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center (NACC). We built multi-factorial XGBoost models using a small set of mortality predictors and conducted stratified analyses with dementiatype-specific models.ResultsOur models achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) of over 0.82 utilizing nine parsimonious features for all 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year thresholds. The trained models mainly consisted of dementia-related predictors such as specific neuropsychological tests and were minimally affected by other age-related causes of death, e.g., stroke and cardiovascular conditions. Notably, stratified analyses revealed shared and distinct predictors of mortality across eight dementia types. Unsupervised clustering of mortality predictors grouped vascular dementia with depression and Lewy body dementia with frontotemporal lobar dementia.ConclusionsThis study demonstrates the feasibility of flagging dementia patients at risk of mortality for personalized clinical management. Parsimonious machine-learning models can be used to predict dementia patient mortality with a limited set of clinical features, and dementiatype-specific models can be applied to heterogeneous dementia patient populations.
| S-EPMC10901806 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo demonstrate the usefulness of applying supervised machine-learning analyses to identify specific groups of patients that experience high levels of mortality post-interhospital transfer.MethodsThis was a cross-sectional analysis of data from the Health Care Utilization Project 2013 National Inpatient Sample, that applied supervised machine-learning approaches that included (1) classification and regression tree to identify mutually exclusive groups of patients and their associated characteristics of those experiencing the highest levels of mortality and (2) random forest to identify the relative importance of each characteristic's contribution to post-transfer mortality.ResultsA total of 21 independent groups of patients were identified, with 13 of those groups exhibiting at least double the national average rate of mortality post-transfer. Patient characteristics identified as influencing post-transfer mortality the most included: diagnosis of a circulatory disorder, comorbidity of coagulopathy, diagnosis of cancer, and age.ConclusionsEmploying supervised machine-learning analyses enabled the computational feasibility to assess all potential combinations of available patient characteristics to identify groups of patients experiencing the highest rates of mortality post-interhospital transfer, providing potentially useful data to support developing clinical decision support systems in future work.
| S-EPMC6425528 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The existence of widespread COVID-19 infections has prompted worldwide efforts to control and manage the virus, and hopefully curb it completely. One important line of research is the use of machine learning (ML) to understand and fight COVID-19. This is currently an active research field. Although there are already many surveys in the literature, there is a need to keep up with the rapidly growing number of publications on COVID-19-related applications of ML. This paper presents a review of recent reports on ML algorithms used in relation to COVID-19. We focus on the potential of ML for two main applications: diagnosis of COVID-19 and prediction of mortality risk and severity, using readily available clinical and laboratory data. Aspects related to algorithm types, training data sets, and feature selection are discussed. As we cover work published between January 2020 and January 2021, a few key points have come to light. The bulk of the machine learning algorithms used in these two applications are supervised learning algorithms. The established models are yet to be used in real-world implementations, and much of the associated research is experimental. The diagnostic and prognostic features discovered by ML models are consistent with results presented in the medical literature. A limitation of the existing applications is the use of imbalanced data sets that are prone to selection bias.
| S-EPMC8018906 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo investigate determining factors of happiness during the COVID-19 pandemic.DesignObservational study.SettingLarge online surveys in Japan before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.ParticipantsA random sample of 25 482 individuals who are representatives of the Japanese population.Main outcome measureSelf-reported happiness measured using a 10-point Likert scale, where higher scores indicated higher levels of happiness. We defined participants with ≥8 on the scale as having high levels of happiness.ResultsAmong the 25 482 respondents, the median score of self-reported happiness was 7 (IQR 6-8), with 11 418 (45%) reporting high levels of happiness during the pandemic. The multivariable logistic regression model showed that meaning in life, having a spouse, trust in neighbours and female gender were positively associated with happiness (eg, adjusted OR (aOR) for meaning in life 4.17; 95% CI 3.92 to 4.43; p<0.001). Conversely, self-reported poor health, anxiety about future household income, psychiatric diseases except depression and feeling isolated were negatively associated with happiness (eg, aOR for self-reported poor health 0.44; 95% CI 0.39 to 0.48; p<0.001). Using machine-learning methods, we found that meaning in life and social capital (eg, having a spouse and trust in communities) were the strongest positive determinants of happiness, whereas poor health, anxiety about future household income and feeling isolated were important negative determinants of happiness. Among 6965 subjects who responded to questionnaires both before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, there was no systemic difference in the patterns as to determinants of declined happiness during the pandemic.ConclusionUsing machine-learning methods on data from large online surveys in Japan, we found that interventions that have a positive impact on social capital as well as successful pandemic control and economic stimuli may effectively improve the population-level psychological well-being during the COVID-19 pandemic.
| S-EPMC9764099 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:This paper studies the temporal consistency of health care expenditures in a large state Medicaid program. Predictive machine learning models were used to forecast the expenditures, especially for the high-cost, high-need (HCHN) patients. RESULTS:We systematically tests temporal correlation of patient-level health care expenditures in both the short and long terms. The results suggest that medical expenditures are significantly correlated over multiple periods. Our work demonstrates a prevalent and strong temporal correlation and shows promise for predicting future health care expenditures using machine learning. Temporal correlation is stronger in HCHN patients and their expenditures can be better predicted. Including more past periods is beneficial for better predictive performance. CONCLUSIONS:This study shows that there is significant temporal correlation in health care expenditures. Machine learning models can help to accurately forecast the expenditures. These results could advance the field toward precise preventive care to lower overall health care costs and deliver care more efficiently.
| S-EPMC6245495 | biostudies-other
Project description:Diabetic nephropathy (DN), the leading cause of end-stage renal disease, has become a massive global health burden. Despite considerable efforts, the underlying mechanisms have not yet been comprehensively understood. In this study, a systematic approach was utilized to identify the microRNA signature in DN and to introduce novel drug targets (DTs) in DN. Using microarray profiling followed by qPCR confirmation, 13 and 6 differentially expressed (DE) microRNAs were identified in the kidney cortex and medulla, respectively. The microRNA-target interaction networks for each anatomical compartment were constructed and central nodes were identified. Moreover, enrichment analysis was performed to identify key signaling pathways. To develop a strategy for DT prediction, the human proteome was annotated with 65 biochemical characteristics and 23 network topology parameters. Furthermore, all proteins targeted by at least one FDA-approved drug were identified. Next, mGMDH-AFS, a high-performance machine learning algorithm capable of tolerating massive imbalanced size of the classes, was developed to classify DT and non-DT proteins. The sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and precision of the proposed method were 90%, 86%, 88%, and 89%, respectively. Moreover, it significantly outperformed the state-of-the-art (P-value ≤ 0.05) and showed very good diagnostic accuracy and high agreement between predicted and observed class labels. The cortex and medulla networks were then analyzed with this validated machine to identify potential DTs. Among the high-rank DT candidates are Egfr, Prkce, clic5, Kit, and Agtr1a which is a current well-known target in DN. In conclusion, a combination of experimental and computational approaches was exploited to provide a holistic insight into the disorder for introducing novel therapeutic targets.
| S-EPMC8648918 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe severity of coronavirus (COVID-19) in patients with chronic comorbidities is much higher than in other patients, which can lead to their death. Machine learning (ML) algorithms as a potential solution for rapid and early clinical evaluation of the severity of the disease can help in allocating and prioritizing resources to reduce mortality.ObjectiveThe objective of this study was to predict the mortality risk and length of stay (LoS) of patients with COVID-19 and history of chronic comorbidities using ML algorithms.MethodsThis retrospective study was conducted by reviewing the medical records of COVID-19 patients with a history of chronic comorbidities from March 2020 to January 2021 in Afzalipour Hospital in Kerman, Iran. The outcome of patients, hospitalization was recorded as discharge or death. The filtering technique used to score the features and well-known ML algorithms were applied to predict the risk of mortality and LoS of patients. Ensemble Learning methods is also used. To evaluate the performance of the models, different measures including F1, precision, recall, and accuracy were calculated. The TRIPOD guideline assessed transparent reporting.ResultsThis study was performed on 1291 patients, including 900 alive and 391 dead patients. Shortness of breath (53.6%), fever (30.1%), and cough (25.3%) were the three most common symptoms in patients. Diabetes mellitus(DM) (31.3%), hypertension (HTN) (27.3%), and ischemic heart disease (IHD) (14.2%) were the three most common chronic comorbidities of patients. Twenty-six important factors were extracted from each patient's record. Gradient boosting model with 84.15% accuracy was the best model for predicting mortality risk and multilayer perceptron (MLP) with rectified linear unit function (MSE = 38.96) was the best model for predicting the LoS. The most common chronic comorbidities among these patients were DM (31.3%), HTN (27.3%), and IHD (14.2%). The most important factors in predicting the risk of mortality were hyperlipidemia, diabetes, asthma, and cancer, and in predicting LoS was shortness of breath.ConclusionThe results of this study showed that the use of ML algorithms can be a good tool to predict the risk of mortality and LoS of patients with COVID-19 and chronic comorbidities based on physiological conditions, symptoms, and demographic information of patients. The Gradient boosting and MLP algorithms can quickly identify patients at risk of death or long-term hospitalization and notify physicians to do appropriate interventions.
| S-EPMC10259141 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundPeople with cancer frequently experience severe and distressing symptoms associated with cancer and its treatments. Predicting symptoms in patients with cancer continues to be a significant challenge for both clinicians and researchers. The rapid evolution of machine learning (ML) highlights the need for a current systematic review to improve cancer symptom prediction.ObjectiveThis systematic review aims to synthesize the literature that has used ML algorithms to predict the development of cancer symptoms and to identify the predictors of these symptoms. This is essential for integrating new developments and identifying gaps in existing literature.MethodsWe conducted this systematic review in accordance with the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) checklist. We conducted a systematic search of CINAHL, Embase, and PubMed for English records published from 1984 to August 11, 2023, using the following search terms: cancer, neoplasm, specific symptoms, neural networks, machine learning, specific algorithm names, and deep learning. All records that met the eligibility criteria were individually reviewed by 2 coauthors, and key findings were extracted and synthesized. We focused on studies using ML algorithms to predict cancer symptoms, excluding nonhuman research, technical reports, reviews, book chapters, conference proceedings, and inaccessible full texts.ResultsA total of 42 studies were included, the majority of which were published after 2017. Most studies were conducted in North America (18/42, 43%) and Asia (16/42, 38%). The sample sizes in most studies (27/42, 64%) typically ranged from 100 to 1000 participants. The most prevalent category of algorithms was supervised ML, accounting for 39 (93%) of the 42 studies. Each of the methods-deep learning, ensemble classifiers, and unsupervised ML-constituted 3 (3%) of the 42 studies. The ML algorithms with the best performance were logistic regression (9/42, 17%), random forest (7/42, 13%), artificial neural networks (5/42, 9%), and decision trees (5/42, 9%). The most commonly included primary cancer sites were the head and neck (9/42, 22%) and breast (8/42, 19%), with 17 (41%) of the 42 studies not specifying the site. The most frequently studied symptoms were xerostomia (9/42, 14%), depression (8/42, 13%), pain (8/42, 13%), and fatigue (6/42, 10%). The significant predictors were age, gender, treatment type, treatment number, cancer site, cancer stage, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, chronic diseases, comorbidities, physical factors, and psychological factors.ConclusionsThis review outlines the algorithms used for predicting symptoms in individuals with cancer. Given the diversity of symptoms people with cancer experience, analytic approaches that can handle complex and nonlinear relationships are critical. This knowledge can pave the way for crafting algorithms tailored to a specific symptom. In addition, to improve prediction precision, future research should compare cutting-edge ML strategies such as deep learning and ensemble methods with traditional statistical models.
| S-EPMC10988375 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The development of single-cell sequencing technologies has allowed researchers to gain important new knowledge about the expression profile of genes in thousands of individual cells of a model organism or tissue. A common disadvantage of this technology is the loss of the three-dimensional (3-D) structure of the cells. Consequently, the Dialogue on Reverse Engineering Assessment and Methods (DREAM) organized the Single-Cell Transcriptomics Challenge, in which we participated, with the aim to address the following two problems: (a) to identify the top 60, 40, and 20 genes of the Drosophila melanogaster embryo that contain the most spatial information and (b) to reconstruct the 3-D arrangement of the embryo using information from those genes. We developed two independent techniques, leveraging machine learning models from least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) and deep neural networks (NNs), which are applied to high-dimensional single-cell sequencing data in order to accurately identify genes that contain spatial information. Our first technique, Lasso.TopX, utilizes the Lasso and ranking statistics and allows a user to define a specific number of features they are interested in. The NN approach utilizes weak supervision for linear regression to accommodate for uncertain or probabilistic training labels. We show, individually for both techniques, that we are able to identify important, stable, and a user-defined number of genes containing the most spatial information. The results from both techniques achieve high performance when reconstructing spatial information in D. melanogaster and also generalize to zebrafish (Danio rerio). Furthermore, we identified novel D. melanogaster genes that carry important positional information and were not previously suspected. We also show how the indirect use of the full datasets' information can lead to data leakage and generate bias in overestimating the model's performance. Lastly, we discuss the applicability of our approaches to other feature selection problems outside the realm of single-cell sequencing and the importance of being able to handle probabilistic training labels. Our source code and detailed documentation are available at https://github.com/TJU-CMC-Org/SingleCell-DREAM/.
| S-EPMC7902049 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Importance:Machine learning algorithms could identify patients with cancer who are at risk of short-term mortality. However, it is unclear how different machine learning algorithms compare and whether they could prompt clinicians to have timely conversations about treatment and end-of-life preferences. Objectives:To develop, validate, and compare machine learning algorithms that use structured electronic health record data before a clinic visit to predict mortality among patients with cancer. Design, Setting, and Participants:Cohort study of 26 525 adult patients who had outpatient oncology or hematology/oncology encounters at a large academic cancer center and 10 affiliated community practices between February 1, 2016, and July 1, 2016. Patients were not required to receive cancer-directed treatment. Patients were observed for up to 500 days after the encounter. Data analysis took place between October 1, 2018, and September 1, 2019. Exposures:Logistic regression, gradient boosting, and random forest algorithms. Main Outcomes and Measures:Primary outcome was 180-day mortality from the index encounter; secondary outcome was 500-day mortality from the index encounter. Results:Among 26 525 patients in the analysis, 1065 (4.0%) died within 180 days of the index encounter. Among those who died, the mean age was 67.3 (95% CI, 66.5-68.0) years, and 500 (47.0%) were women. Among those who were alive at 180 days, the mean age was 61.3 (95% CI, 61.1-61.5) years, and 15 922 (62.5%) were women. The population was randomly partitioned into training (18 567 [70.0%]) and validation (7958 [30.0%]) cohorts at the patient level, and a randomly selected encounter was included in either the training or validation set. At a prespecified alert rate of 0.02, positive predictive values were higher for the random forest (51.3%) and gradient boosting (49.4%) algorithms compared with the logistic regression algorithm (44.7%). There was no significant difference in discrimination among the random forest (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.88; 95% CI, 0.86-0.89), gradient boosting (AUC, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.85-0.89), and logistic regression (AUC, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.84-0.88) models (P for comparison = .02). In the random forest model, observed 180-day mortality was 51.3% (95% CI, 43.6%-58.8%) in the high-risk group vs 3.4% (95% CI, 3.0%-3.8%) in the low-risk group; at 500 days, observed mortality was 64.4% (95% CI, 56.7%-71.4%) in the high-risk group and 7.6% (7.0%-8.2%) in the low-risk group. In a survey of 15 oncology clinicians with a 52.1% response rate, 100 of 171 patients (58.8%) who had been flagged as having high risk by the gradient boosting algorithm were deemed appropriate for a conversation about treatment and end-of-life preferences in the upcoming week. Conclusions and Relevance:In this cohort study, machine learning algorithms based on structured electronic health record data accurately identified patients with cancer at risk of short-term mortality. When the gradient boosting algorithm was applied in real time, clinicians believed that most patients who had been identified as having high risk were appropriate for a timely conversation about treatment and end-of-life preferences.
| S-EPMC6822091 | biostudies-literature